Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)
Valuation Overview•Is Winnebago Industries, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
WGO struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-17.4% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $702.7M | -5.9% | -17.4% | +3.5% | +11.1% | |
| EBITDA | $29.0M | — | -46.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $5.5M | +97.7% | -59.6% | — | -4.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.19 | +106.8% | -57.5% | -13.1% | -5.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.8M | -9.5% | -34.1% | -17.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 15.1% |
| Operating Margin | 2.5% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Net Margin | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| FCF Margin | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.25 | $0.27 | +8.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.13 | $0.38 | +186.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.53 | $0.71 | +33.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.79 | $0.81 | +2.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.19 | $0.19 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.29 | $-0.03 | -110.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.89 | $0.28 | -68.5% | ||
| Q2'24 | $1.32 | $1.13 | -14.4% |
Total return is -3.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -28.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -27.2% | -36.5% | — |
| 1Y | -3.9% | -28.9% | +4.5% |
| 3YCAGR | -20.2% | -40.2% | +6.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -11.2% | -24.1% | +9.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +5.6% | -7.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Winnebago Industries, Inc. appears Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Winnebago Industries, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $23.10 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $40.80 (implying +42.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Winnebago Industries, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.6%.
Winnebago Industries, Inc. pays a 4.8% dividend yield, covered by a 151% payout ratio with 7 years of growth, supplemented by a 6.6% buyback yield.
Winnebago Industries, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -5.9% 1Y revenue growth and +106.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -17.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +42.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Winnebago Industries, Inc. include: -44.7% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.02x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.