MODEL VERDICT
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $80.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $85.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $89.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $87.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $85.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $124.76 | +54.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $58.86 | -27.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $71.04 | -12.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $123.25 | +52.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $81.31 | +0.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $148.52 | +83.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $32.37 | -60.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $49.42 | -38.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $71.02 | -12.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $123.24 | +52.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.30 | +27.8% | 100% | 84 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $69 | $77 | $85 | $92 | $100 |
| Conservative (7%) | $71 | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $73 | $82 | $90 | $98 | $106 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $76 | $84 | $93 | $101 | $109 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.90 | 29.26 | 18.24 | 38.53 | 7.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.90 | 21.28 | 14.96 | 26.05 | 4.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.95 | 18.62 | 13.22 | 147.30 | 49.15 |
| P/FCF | 56.53 | 21.64 | 17.82 | 163.29 | 60.08 |
| P/FFO | 21.03 | 22.43 | 14.99 | 24.83 | 3.56 |
| P/AFFO | 24.43 | 26.66 | 16.48 | 28.09 | 4.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.43 | 7.73 | 5.01 | 12.42 | 2.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.51 | 4.32 | 2.96 | 5.73 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WH's fair value at $103.30 vs the current price of $80.84, implying +27.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $85.36 (P10) to $159.32 (P90), with a median of $116.75.
WH's current P/E of 32.7x compares to the industry median of 28.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +13.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.9x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
22 analysts cover WH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $98.13 (range: $87.00 — $108.00), implying +21.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WH trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (25.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6600.0% to approximately $134. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.