MODEL VERDICT
Winmark Corporation (WINA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $373.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $399.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $389.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $379.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $444.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $228.63 | -38.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $186.29 | -50.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $264.61 | -29.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $242.75 | -35.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $265.89 | -28.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $304.16 | -18.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $162.18 | -56.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $57.01 | -84.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $53.64 | -85.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $263.98 | -29.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $264.89 | -29.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $260.73 | -30.1% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $315 | $350 | $385 | $420 | $455 |
| Conservative (5%) | $321 | $356 | $392 | $428 | $463 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $329 | $366 | $402 | $439 | $476 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $338 | $375 | $413 | $450 | $488 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.19 | 25.29 | 21.50 | 37.82 | 7.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.59 | 19.23 | 17.00 | 29.01 | 5.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.42 | 18.98 | 16.72 | 29.07 | 5.43 |
| P/FCF | 25.91 | 21.12 | 18.38 | 34.86 | 7.80 |
| P/FFO | 28.47 | 24.72 | 21.03 | 36.86 | 6.80 |
| P/AFFO | 30.79 | 34.29 | 23.14 | 37.21 | 6.02 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.97 | 12.10 | 10.41 | 18.26 | 3.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WINA's fair value at $260.73 vs the current price of $373.23, implying -30.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $260.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $234.84 (P10) to $272.22 (P90), with a median of $253.18.
WINA's current P/E of 33.0x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +41.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for WINA.
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WINA trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WINA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (64.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $438. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.