MODEL VERDICT
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $41.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $39.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $104.96 | +155.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $64.20 | +56.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $30.47 | -25.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $31.35 | -23.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $58.44 | +42.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $33.75 | -17.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $40.27 | -1.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $40.63 | -1.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $30.02 | -26.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $30.92 | -24.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.60 | +30.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.38 | 20.18 | 14.97 | 103.74 | 38.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.16 | 13.99 | 12.83 | 34.14 | 9.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.77 | 8.32 | 6.07 | 14.07 | 2.75 |
| P/FCF | 14.55 | 13.90 | 10.21 | 22.86 | 4.35 |
| P/FFO | 10.47 | 8.14 | 6.02 | 24.30 | 6.85 |
| P/AFFO | 38.95 | 12.87 | 8.99 | 174.74 | 66.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.46 | 2.39 | 1.73 | 3.27 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.29 | 0.90 | 1.62 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WLYB's fair value at $53.60 vs the current price of $41.04, implying +30.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.19 (P10) to $65.32 (P90), with a median of $57.40.
WLYB's current P/E of 26.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +34.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover WLYB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WLYB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6900.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.