MODEL VERDICT
Worthington Industries, Inc. (WOR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $54.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $55.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $55.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $53.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $55.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $63.50 | +16.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $25.73 | -52.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $50.55 | -7.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $160.17 | +194.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $18.99 | -65.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $171.54 | +215.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $15.01 | -72.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $51.90 | -4.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $34.62 | -36.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $50.55 | -7.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $149.10 | +174.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.34 | +1.8% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| Base Case (6.4%) | $49 | $53 | $57 | $61 | $65 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $50 | $54 | $58 | $63 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.60 | 11.09 | 2.51 | 26.86 | 9.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.95 | 16.61 | 2.03 | 27.61 | 9.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.17 | 10.39 | 7.22 | 27.12 | 8.52 |
| P/FCF | 10.26 | 9.62 | 5.27 | 16.24 | 4.01 |
| P/FFO | 8.31 | 7.70 | 2.24 | 17.91 | 5.30 |
| P/TBV | 3.81 | 3.66 | 1.71 | 6.96 | 2.01 |
| P/AFFO | 13.67 | 10.04 | 2.49 | 27.58 | 9.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.61 | 0.97 | 2.76 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.10 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 2.24 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WOR's fair value at $55.34 vs the current price of $54.38, implying +1.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.02 (P10) to $70.74 (P90), with a median of $61.22.
WOR's current P/E of 28.3x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +7.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover WOR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $65.00 — $69.00), implying +23.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WOR trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WOR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3360.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.