MODEL VERDICT
WesBanco, Inc. (WSBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $34.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $34.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $36.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $36.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $36.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $28.82 | -16.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $55.83 | +61.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $41.35 | +19.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $42.16 | +22.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $28.82 | -16.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $38.73 | +12.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.96 | +7.1% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $25 | $30 | $35 | $39 | $44 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $40 | $45 |
| Base Case (5.0%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $40 | $45 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $27 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.43 | 13.35 | 9.91 | 16.93 | 2.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.08 | 15.48 | 4.99 | 19.60 | 4.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.08 | 14.27 | 4.77 | 18.49 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 14.95 | 11.35 | 7.01 | 38.74 | 10.72 |
| P/FFO | 11.70 | 11.83 | 8.99 | 14.81 | 1.80 |
| P/TBV | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.73 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 12.49 | 12.35 | 9.30 | 15.68 | 1.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 3.05 | 2.08 | 3.77 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WSBC's fair value at $36.96 vs the current price of $34.50, implying +7.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.44 (P10) to $39.11 (P90), with a median of $37.27.
WSBC's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 12.8x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +19.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
16 analysts cover WSBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.50 (range: $41.00 — $42.00), implying +20.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WSBC trades at the 7230th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WSBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2860.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.