MODEL VERDICT
WSFS Financial Corporation (WSFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $72.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $71.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $70.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $69.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $69.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $65.38 | -9.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $66.55 | -7.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $51.14 | -29.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $22.54 | -68.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $65.38 | -9.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $65.04 | -9.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.24 | -13.7% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $54 | $65 | $76 | $87 | $98 |
| Conservative (11%) | $57 | $68 | $79 | $91 | $102 |
| Base Case (17.5%) | $60 | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $63 | $76 | $88 | $101 | $113 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.88 | 12.05 | 8.81 | 19.77 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.07 | 6.92 | 3.08 | 11.25 | 2.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.01 | 6.21 | 2.79 | 8.95 | 2.00 |
| P/FCF | 54.58 | 15.43 | 6.11 | 284.17 | 101.51 |
| P/FFO | 10.43 | 10.20 | 7.73 | 14.83 | 2.27 |
| P/TBV | 1.91 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 2.43 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 10.86 | 10.53 | 7.90 | 15.56 | 2.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.11 | 1.31 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.83 | 3.00 | 2.21 | 3.73 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WSFS's fair value at $62.24 vs the current price of $72.13, implying -13.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.61 (P10) to $64.61 (P90), with a median of $60.53.
WSFS's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 12.8x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +10.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
13 analysts cover WSFS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $74.67 (range: $67.00 — $81.00), implying +3.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WSFS trades at the 6010th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WSFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.