MODEL VERDICT
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $179.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $190.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $198.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $192.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $189.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $161.44 | -10.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $169.84 | -5.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $280.52 | +55.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $159.04 | -11.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $208.60 | +15.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $183.78 | +2.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $169.84 | -5.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $64.80 | -64.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $50.03 | -72.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $262.77 | +46.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $164.93 | -8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $171.28 | -4.8% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $150 | $169 | $188 | $207 | $225 |
| Conservative (10%) | $156 | $175 | $195 | $214 | $234 |
| Base Case (15.5%) | $163 | $184 | $204 | $225 | $245 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $171 | $192 | $214 | $235 | $257 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.54 | 13.86 | 7.04 | 21.07 | 5.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.81 | 10.69 | 6.02 | 16.67 | 4.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.81 | 9.01 | 5.27 | 14.36 | 3.29 |
| P/FCF | 13.46 | 11.37 | 7.28 | 20.84 | 5.44 |
| P/FFO | 11.56 | 10.70 | 5.92 | 17.50 | 4.13 |
| P/TBV | 7.45 | 6.42 | 4.89 | 11.48 | 2.82 |
| P/AFFO | 14.64 | 13.25 | 8.04 | 20.92 | 4.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.12 | 6.19 | 4.67 | 11.07 | 2.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.75 | 1.57 | 0.92 | 3.07 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WSM's fair value at $171.28 vs the current price of $179.99, implying -4.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $171.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $146.94 (P10) to $176.27 (P90), with a median of $161.41.
WSM's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 31.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -35.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
56 analysts cover WSM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $200.25 (range: $175.00 — $220.00), implying +11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (34), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WSM trades at the 3160th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WSM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2030.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.