MODEL VERDICT
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $149.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $147.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $148.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $146.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $145.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $154.50 | +3.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $136.99 | -8.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $159.86 | +6.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $154.49 | +3.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $143.71 | -3.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $148.19 | -0.9% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $112 | $137 | $162 | $187 | $212 |
| Conservative (13%) | $117 | $144 | $170 | $196 | $222 |
| Base Case (19.8%) | $125 | $152 | $180 | $208 | $235 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $132 | $161 | $191 | $220 | $249 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.60 | 11.98 | 9.68 | 13.05 | 1.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.03 | 7.86 | 2.20 | 12.05 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.28 | 7.11 | 1.76 | 11.16 | 3.24 |
| P/FCF | 10.38 | 9.32 | 3.84 | 22.21 | 6.67 |
| P/FFO | 9.25 | 9.20 | 8.14 | 10.36 | 0.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.03 | 1.49 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 10.32 | 10.57 | 8.71 | 11.38 | 1.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 1.30 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.18 | 2.24 | 1.73 | 2.82 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates WTFC's fair value at $148.19 vs the current price of $149.57, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $148.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $134.14 (P10) to $148.47 (P90), with a median of $141.16.
WTFC's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
22 analysts cover WTFC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $174.57 (range: $160.00 — $185.00), implying +16.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WTFC trades at the 4960th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WTFC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1300.0% to approximately $130. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.