Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC)
Valuation Overview•Is Wintrust Financial Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 54/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
WTFC demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with robust earnings compounding (13.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 26.4% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | +6.7% | — | — | +15.7% | |
| EBITDA | $302.2M | — | +15.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $223.0M | +18.5% | +17.4% | — | +18.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.30 | +12.1% | +13.0% | +19.8% | +14.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $228.6M | +35.4% | -13.3% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 62.2% | 62.1% | 73.3% | 78.2% |
| Operating Margin | 26.4% | 25.2% | 28.3% | 28.0% |
| Net Margin | 19.5% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| FCF Margin | 21.1% | 19.1% | 35.0% | 22.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.96 | $3.22 | +8.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $3.30 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.93 | $3.15 | +7.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.63 | $3.06 | +16.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.60 | $2.78 | +6.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.49 | $2.69 | +8.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.52 | $2.63 | +4.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.51 | $2.47 | -1.6% |
Total return is +31.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +6.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +8.8% | -0.5% | — |
| 1Y | +31.6% | +6.6% | +1.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +31.9% | +12.3% | +8.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +16.9% | +3.5% | +11.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.7% | -0.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) valuation, health, and returns.
Wintrust Financial Corporation is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $145.10)
Wintrust Financial Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $145.10 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $162.74 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $174.57 (implying +13.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Wintrust Financial Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 54/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.5%.
Wintrust Financial Corporation pays a 1.6% dividend yield, covered by a 21% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 4.0% buyback yield.
Wintrust Financial Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +6.7% 1Y revenue growth and +12.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +13.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Wintrust Financial Corporation include: -19.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.98x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.