MODEL VERDICT
Woodward, Inc. (WWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $362.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $364.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $394.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $393.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $388.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $326.18 | -10.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $293.44 | -19.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $365.27 | +0.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $214.52 | -40.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $236.91 | -34.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $246.17 | -32.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $266.60 | -26.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $279.91 | -22.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $258.01 | -28.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $349.77 | -3.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $205.08 | -43.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $250.66 | -30.9% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $319 | $349 | $380 | $410 | $440 |
| Conservative (9%) | $329 | $361 | $392 | $424 | $455 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $344 | $377 | $410 | $443 | $475 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $359 | $393 | $427 | $462 | $496 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.96 | 34.42 | 27.69 | 42.05 | 4.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.31 | 29.41 | 24.87 | 33.46 | 3.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.41 | 20.03 | 17.87 | 30.39 | 4.15 |
| P/FCF | 33.37 | 30.14 | 16.81 | 54.59 | 12.59 |
| P/FFO | 22.93 | 21.12 | 19.02 | 33.46 | 4.84 |
| P/TBV | 12.95 | 11.12 | 8.44 | 24.11 | 5.36 |
| P/AFFO | 28.45 | 25.52 | 23.88 | 43.78 | 7.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.40 | 4.04 | 3.21 | 7.24 | 1.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.24 | 3.11 | 2.56 | 5.21 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WWD's fair value at $250.66 vs the current price of $362.99, implying -30.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $250.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $249.99 (P10) to $300.91 (P90), with a median of $275.05.
WWD's current P/E of 50.5x compares to the industry median of 50.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -0.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover WWD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $433.17 (range: $404.00 — $470.00), implying +19.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.8% is 3.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$225. (2) Multiple compression: WWD trades at the 5410th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WWD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3810.0% to approximately $225. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.