MODEL VERDICT
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $23.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $25.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $25.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $24.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $12.71 | -47.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $18.18 | -24.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $21.55 | -10.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $36.94 | +54.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $20.03 | -16.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $14.84 | -38.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.99 | -66.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $18.73 | -21.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $19.11 | -20.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.24 | -11.5% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (-15.9%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-22%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.74 | 30.79 | 11.87 | 52.64 | 18.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.29 | 24.14 | 9.42 | 174.53 | 58.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.51 | 17.43 | 7.45 | 24.80 | 6.91 |
| P/FCF | 54.38 | 33.81 | 11.13 | 194.32 | 63.93 |
| P/FFO | 21.98 | 19.76 | 9.76 | 51.90 | 14.17 |
| P/TBV | 2.44 | 2.49 | 1.85 | 2.87 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 87.88 | 29.71 | 10.54 | 450.52 | 160.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 2.87 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.96 | 3.03 | 2.26 | 3.44 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WY's fair value at $21.24 vs the current price of $23.99, implying -11.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.83 (P10) to $33.05 (P90), with a median of $23.29.
WY's current P/E of 53.3x compares to the industry median of 33.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +61.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover WY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.83 (range: $28.00 — $33.00), implying +24.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WY trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1070.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.