MODEL VERDICT
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $152.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $147.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $148.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $151.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $124.61 | Below threshold | +21.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $86.74 | -43.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $78.83 | -48.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $103.78 | -32.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $69.16 | -54.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $74.14 | -51.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $72.46 | -52.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $110.69 | -27.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $80.83 | -47.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $105.45 | -30.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $71.03 | -53.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.73 | -43.2% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $132 | $146 | $160 | $174 | $188 |
| Conservative (7%) | $136 | $150 | $164 | $178 | $193 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $140 | $155 | $170 | $184 | $199 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $144 | $160 | $175 | $190 | $205 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.89 | 12.54 | 8.32 | 20.77 | 4.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.39 | 9.52 | 6.05 | 16.36 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.65 | 7.62 | 5.40 | 14.45 | 3.13 |
| P/FCF | 19.99 | 13.58 | 7.26 | 55.64 | 18.27 |
| P/FFO | 7.56 | 7.47 | 5.81 | 9.45 | 1.38 |
| P/TBV | 1.72 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 2.29 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 17.48 | 14.09 | 7.56 | 33.19 | 9.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 2.29 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 1.60 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates XOM's fair value at $86.73 vs the current price of $152.59, implying -43.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.12 (P10) to $103.10 (P90), with a median of $89.48.
XOM's current P/E of 22.8x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +47.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
53 analysts cover XOM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $146.77 (range: $123.00 — $183.00), implying -3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (27), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: XOM trades at the 8670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XOM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3380.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.