Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Valuation Overview•Is Exxon Mobil Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 50/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
XOM demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-6.7% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 10.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.0B | -4.5% | -6.7% | +12.6% | +3.0% | |
| EBITDA | $13.7B | — | -12.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $6.5B | -14.4% | -19.7% | — | +6.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.53 | -14.5% | -20.4% | — | +5.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.2B | -23.1% | -26.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 21.7% | 23.1% | 23.7% | 21.5% |
| Operating Margin | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 6.4% |
| Net Margin | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% |
| FCF Margin | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.98 | $1.16 | +17.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.70 | $1.71 | +0.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.82 | $1.88 | +3.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.75 | $1.76 | +0.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.77 | $1.67 | -5.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.88 | $1.92 | +2.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.01 | $2.14 | +6.5% |
Total return is +25.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +0.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +14.0% | +4.7% | — |
| 1Y | +25.4% | +0.4% | +3.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +13.3% | -5.5% | +11.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +21.0% | +8.4% | +31.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +6.6% | -6.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) valuation, health, and returns.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $145.88)
Exxon Mobil Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $145.88 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $90.38 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $170.08 (implying +23.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Exxon Mobil Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 50/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.1 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 8.6%.
Exxon Mobil Corporation pays a 2.9% dividend yield, covered by a 60% payout ratio with 43 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.5% buyback yield.
Exxon Mobil Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -4.5% 1Y revenue growth and -14.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -6.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 55 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +23.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Exxon Mobil Corporation include: -19.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.39x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.