MODEL VERDICT
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $47.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $46.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $47.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $46.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $46.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $26.56 | -44.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $26.84 | -43.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $32.37 | -32.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $27.18 | -43.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $29.90 | -37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $26.19 | -45.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $132.01 | +176.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $16.91 | -64.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $12.66 | -73.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $32.19 | -32.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $26.10 | -45.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.54 | +66.4% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
| Conservative (15%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $60 | $64 |
| Base Case (22.9%) | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 | $68 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.88 | 28.73 | 24.21 | 78.12 | 20.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.42 | 23.40 | 19.09 | 61.02 | 16.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.54 | 21.24 | 15.57 | 54.95 | 14.84 |
| P/FCF | 153.42 | 50.04 | 21.96 | 663.18 | 231.04 |
| P/FFO | 35.13 | 25.81 | 19.31 | 69.41 | 18.84 |
| P/TBV | 24.61 | 14.11 | 7.52 | 72.31 | 22.91 |
| P/AFFO | 40.09 | 28.68 | 21.87 | 76.01 | 21.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.12 | 11.59 | 4.76 | 26.67 | 8.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.82 | 3.75 | 2.63 | 8.96 | 2.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates XPEL's fair value at $79.54 vs the current price of $47.80, implying +66.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.41 (P10) to $110.72 (P90), with a median of $61.93.
XPEL's current P/E of 25.8x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +47.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover XPEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $58.00 (range: $58.00 — $58.00), implying +21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XPEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11770.0% to approximately $104. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.