XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
Valuation Overview•Is XPEL, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 79/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside with steady expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
XPEL demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($28M) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (13.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 13.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $117.4M | +13.3% | +13.7% | +24.5% | +27.6% | |
| EBITDA | $16.7M | — | +7.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $10.3M | +12.6% | +7.4% | — | +41.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.37 | +12.1% | +7.2% | +22.9% | +41.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.3M | +53.1% | +193.0% | +31.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 42.5% | 41.8% | 40.1% | 35.0% |
| Operating Margin | 13.2% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 12.4% |
| Net Margin | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| FCF Margin | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.33 | $0.37 | +12.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.43 | $0.48 | +11.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.48 | $0.47 | -2.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.52 | $0.59 | +13.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.25 | $0.31 | +24.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.41 | $0.35 | -14.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.51 | $0.54 | +5.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.46 | $0.54 | +17.4% |
Total return is +25.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +0.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -9.5% | -18.8% | — |
| 1Y | +25.8% | +0.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -16.7% | -36.4% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -11.6% | -24.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +23.7% | +10.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) valuation, health, and returns.
XPEL, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $40.87)
XPEL, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $40.87 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $46.95 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $58.00 (implying +27.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
XPEL, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 79/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 10.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 19.5%.
XPEL, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
XPEL, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +13.3% 1Y revenue growth and +12.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +13.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +27.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for XPEL, Inc. include: -31.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.