MODEL VERDICT
Yelp Inc. (YELP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $22.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $21.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $20.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $30.85 | Pending | -21.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $23.80 | +6.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $43.75 | +96.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $34.93 | +56.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $48.02 | +115.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $21.57 | -3.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $48.87 | +119.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $53.27 | +139.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $59.47 | +166.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $62.07 | +178.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $47.85 | +114.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $46.44 | +108.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.43 | +157.7% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $34 |
| Conservative (19%) | $18 | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 |
| Base Case (29.3%) | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $21 | $26 | $31 | $37 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.04 | 55.56 | 20.59 | 72.48 | 19.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 58.53 | 59.72 | 16.94 | 107.01 | 35.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.93 | 21.82 | 11.80 | 168.38 | 55.85 |
| P/FCF | 15.97 | 15.45 | 11.00 | 26.94 | 5.34 |
| P/FFO | 29.93 | 21.15 | 14.51 | 76.48 | 21.57 |
| P/TBV | 4.14 | 4.24 | 3.25 | 5.46 | 0.88 |
| P/AFFO | 33.18 | 25.60 | 18.10 | 58.36 | 17.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.46 | 3.60 | 2.79 | 4.65 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.53 | 2.68 | 1.68 | 3.29 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates YELP's fair value at $57.43 vs the current price of $22.29, implying +157.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.45 (P10) to $84.88 (P90), with a median of $59.87.
YELP's current P/E of 11.9x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -36.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
67 analysts cover YELP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.60 (range: $25.00 — $45.00), implying +46.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (29), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.9% is 5.5 percentage points above the 6-year average (4.5%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$43. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that YELP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9360.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.