MODEL VERDICT
YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $41.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $45.92 | +13.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $43.76 | +8.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $61.52 | +52.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $50.53 | +25.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $43.25 | +7.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $47.38 | +17.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $5.27 | -86.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $28.47 | -29.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $21.85 | -45.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $51.10 | +26.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $47.64 | +18.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.87 | +45.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $50 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (2.8%) | $33 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.36 | 34.51 | 18.79 | 59.97 | 13.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.21 | 26.99 | 12.70 | 36.51 | 8.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.95 | 21.25 | 10.62 | 27.60 | 5.88 |
| P/FCF | 46.03 | 21.24 | 15.04 | 90.93 | 35.58 |
| P/FFO | 25.72 | 27.81 | 14.75 | 37.83 | 8.59 |
| P/TBV | 16.15 | 9.86 | 6.66 | 42.34 | 13.66 |
| P/AFFO | 40.13 | 35.22 | 18.15 | 97.82 | 27.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.82 | 6.84 | 4.46 | 24.61 | 8.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.25 | 2.73 | 1.80 | 5.51 | 1.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates YETI's fair value at $58.87 vs the current price of $40.35, implying +45.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.92 (P10) to $68.52 (P90), with a median of $56.73.
YETI's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 30.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -34.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover YETI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.71 (range: $41.00 — $60.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that YETI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13580.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.