Yiren Digital Ltd. (YRD)
Valuation Overview•Is Yiren Digital Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though growth presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
YRD demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($3.8B) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 22.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $945.4M | -4.0% | — | — | +15.5% | |
| EBITDA | -$39.3M | — | +12.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$870.0M | -97.5% | -67.9% | — | -17.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-20.00 | -95.0% | -59.6% | — | -16.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$206.5M | -52.1% | -28.4% | +20.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 86.2% | 83.6% | 82.2% | 85.0% |
| Operating Margin | 22.6% | 40.0% | 38.3% | 24.4% |
| Net Margin | 0.9% | 23.5% | 25.7% | 17.1% |
| FCF Margin | 11.8% | 26.9% | 27.6% | 17.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | — | $-1.44 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $0.51 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.57 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.39 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.52 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $0.58 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.65 | — | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.03 | $0.76 | +2722.1% |
Total return is -77.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -102.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -70.0% | -79.3% | — |
| 1Y | -77.5% | -102.5% | +3.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -12.3% | -31.1% | +24.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -20.1% | -33.5% | +11.6% |
| 10YCAGR | -13.1% | -26.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Yiren Digital Ltd. (YRD) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Yiren Digital Ltd. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Yiren Digital Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $3.25. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Yiren Digital Ltd. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 17.0%.
Yiren Digital Ltd. pays a 80.4% dividend yield, covered by a 693% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Yiren Digital Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -4.0% 1Y revenue growth and -95.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Sell based on 8 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Yiren Digital Ltd. include: -82.6% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.22x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.