MODEL VERDICT
Yiren Digital Ltd. (YRD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $4.08 | Pending | -4.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $423.88 | +10768.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $364.80 | +9253.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $337.13 | +8544.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $89.54 | +2195.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $434.92 | +11051.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $255.65 | +6455.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $149 | $149 | $149 | $149 | $187 |
| Conservative (5%) | $152 | $152 | $152 | $152 | $190 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $156 | $156 | $156 | $156 | $195 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $160 | $160 | $160 | $160 | $200 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.52 | 0.17 |
| P/FCF | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.03 | 1.14 | 0.46 |
| P/FFO | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| P/TBV | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/AFFO | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates YRD's fair value at $255.65 vs the current price of $3.90, implying +6455.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $255.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.68 (P10) to $262.04 (P90), with a median of $201.63.
YRD's current P/E of 0.7x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -93.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover YRD with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: YRD trades at the 240th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that YRD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1820.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.