MODEL VERDICT
Yiren Digital Ltd. (YRD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.01 | Pending | +10.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $109.49 | +5293.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $87.91 | +4230.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $56.53 | +2684.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $24.61 | +1112.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $65.81 | +3141.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $5.73 | +182.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.10 | +2220.1% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $76 | $76 | $76 | $76 | $95 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $78 | $78 | $78 | $78 | $98 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $100 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 0.35 |
| P/FCF | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.06 | 2.29 | 0.91 |
| P/FFO | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.17 |
| P/TBV | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| P/AFFO | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates YRD's fair value at $47.10 vs the current price of $2.03, implying +2220.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.23 (P10) to $65.17 (P90), with a median of $45.76.
YRD's current P/E of 0.8x compares to the industry median of 6.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -87.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover YRD with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: YRD trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that YRD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12710.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.