MODEL VERDICT
Zevia PBC (ZVIA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 15 industry peers | $6.95 | +318.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $4.96 | +198.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.20 | +213.0% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.16 | 2.36 | 1.75 | 6.18 | 2.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.97 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 5.73 | 1.86 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.34 | 0.61 | 1.76 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZVIA's fair value at $5.20 vs the current price of $1.66, implying +213.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.87 (P10) to $8.89 (P90), with a median of $5.82.
ZVIA's current P/E of -4.9x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -118.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover ZVIA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $4.00 — $6.00), implying +201.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZVIA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.