MODEL VERDICT
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $111.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $113.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $112.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $112.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $98.46 | Pending | +13.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $2509.27 | +2157.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $3476.02 | +3027.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $3039.44 | +2634.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $4009.86 | +3507.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $4649.67 | +4083.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $3175.48 | +2756.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $3049.51 | +2643.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $3029.45 | +2625.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2288.77 | +1959.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $1583 | $1827 | $2070 | $2314 | $2557 |
| Conservative (12%) | $1650 | $1904 | $2158 | $2412 | $2666 |
| Base Case (18.2%) | $1744 | $2012 | $2281 | $2549 | $2817 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $1838 | $2121 | $2404 | $2687 | $2970 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 0.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.67 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 2.42 | 0.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.24 | 1.33 | 0.34 | 1.80 | 0.44 |
| P/FCF | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.98 | 0.30 |
| P/FFO | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.66 | 0.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.92 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 10.44 | 3.76 |
| P/AFFO | 1.30 | 1.29 | 0.74 | 2.11 | 0.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.32 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1.58 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 1.06 | 0.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates KOF's fair value at $2288.77 vs the current price of $111.15, implying +1959.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2288.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1711.93 (P10) to $2656.02 (P90), with a median of $2190.52.
KOF's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -37.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover KOF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $111.00 (range: $98.00 — $124.00), implying -0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KOF trades at the 1540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KOF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1860.0% to approximately $91. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.