MODEL VERDICT
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $169.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $164.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $165.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $166.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $139.91 | Below threshold | +19.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $169.74 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $121.73 | -28.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $147.72 | -13.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $138.51 | -18.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $117.66 | -30.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $130.66 | -23.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $42.69 | -74.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $132.25 | -22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $129.23 | -23.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $147.06 | -13.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $136.00 | -19.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $138.18 | -18.6% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $147 | $159 | $171 | $184 | $196 |
| Conservative (5%) | $151 | $164 | $176 | $189 | $202 |
| Base Case (3.3%) | $149 | $161 | $174 | $186 | $198 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $150 | $163 | $175 | $188 | $200 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.69 | 26.28 | 21.88 | 31.70 | 3.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.15 | 22.05 | 19.12 | 24.49 | 1.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.50 | 17.40 | 14.73 | 19.28 | 1.65 |
| P/FCF | 33.08 | 32.39 | 25.65 | 44.71 | 6.14 |
| P/FFO | 19.17 | 18.93 | 15.65 | 22.27 | 2.14 |
| P/AFFO | 33.00 | 33.20 | 25.95 | 38.87 | 4.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.05 | 12.93 | 9.58 | 15.23 | 2.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.67 | 2.86 | 2.09 | 3.04 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEP's fair value at $138.18 vs the current price of $169.74, implying -18.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $138.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.12 (P10) to $173.05 (P90), with a median of $150.03.
PEP's current P/E of 28.3x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
44 analysts cover PEP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $167.75 (range: $144.00 — $191.00), implying -1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (15), Hold (27), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PEP trades at the 5380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PEP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 750.0% to approximately $183. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.