Upside case
Bull case
$837+1226.7%
AA would need investors to value it at roughly 120x earnings — about 111x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 42 covering AA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
+9.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $837
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.3B
AA price targets
Three scenarios for where AA stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$12
Base
$60
Bull
$837
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$60-4.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AA — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$12-80.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push AA down roughly 81% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alcoa Corporation
AA · NYSEBasic MaterialsAluminumDecember year-end
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum producer that mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts it into primary aluminum products. It generates revenue through three main segments—bauxite mining (~10%), alumina refining (~35%), and aluminum production (~55%)—with additional income from hydroelectric power sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated global operations, low-cost hydroelectric power access for smelting, and established customer relationships in industrial markets.
Market Cap
$16.3B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
9.0%
AA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+38.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.32
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.02/$-0.14
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.26/$0.93
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.40/$1.60
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.32 | +21.0% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.02/$-0.14 | +85.8% | $3.0B/$3.1B | -3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.26/$0.93 | +36.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40/$1.60 | -12.5% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.6B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$13.9B
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.70
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$4.26
-9.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$567M
FCF Margin: 4.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $14.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aluminum
51.1%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Aluminum is the largest disclosed segment at 51.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.9% YoY.
AA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $94 — implies +50.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
50.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AA
14.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
43% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AA
14.2x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
36% discount
vs AA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.2x
vs
5Y Average
57.8x
75% discount
Forward PE
9.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-53%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-43%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-36%
5Y Avg
57.8x
-75%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-39%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-16%
5Y Avg
6.5x
+43%
Price/FCF
28.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+37%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+12%
5Y Avg
65.7x
-56%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-32%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+65%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
S&P 500
1.87%
-66%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-53%
5Y Avg
0.82%
-23%
| Metric | AA | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.0x | 19.1x-53% | 15.2x-41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.2x | 25.1x-43% | 22.3x-36% | 57.8x-75% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 15.2x-39% | 11.0x-16% | 6.5x+43% |
| Price/FCF | 28.8x | 21.1x+37% | 25.6x+12% | 65.7x-56% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 1.9x-32% | 0.8x+65% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.63% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 0.82% |
AA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AA 12.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
13.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$567M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.39
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
263M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Weakening Cash Flow
Alcoa has experienced a significant year-over-year decrease in free cash flow, with Q1 2023 showing negative free cash flow due to increases in working capital. This deterioration limits the company's ability to invest in organic growth and return value to shareholders.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
The profitability of Alcoa is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the prices of alumina and aluminum. Significant price drops can adversely affect revenue and margins, leading to potential financial instability.
High Risk
Geopolitical Instability
Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East can disrupt supply chains, leading to idled facilities and increased production costs. Such geopolitical risks can significantly impact Alcoa's operational efficiency and pricing strategies.
Medium
Restructuring Charges
The strategic closure of the Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia has resulted in substantial restructuring charges that negatively impacted recent financial results. These charges can affect short-term profitability and investor sentiment.
Medium
Tariffs
U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum products, particularly from Canada, pose a significant headwind for Alcoa. While potential easing of these tariffs could provide relief, the current environment remains challenging.
Medium
Environmental Regulations
Increasing claims, costs, and liabilities related to health, safety, and environmental laws are a concern for Alcoa. Compliance with stringent regulations can lead to increased operational costs and potential legal liabilities.
Lower
Operational Challenges
Alcoa may face operational difficulties and production issues that could lead to higher costs. Such challenges, while manageable, can still impact overall efficiency and profitability.
Lower
Cybersecurity
The risk of cyber attacks and security breaches poses a threat to Alcoa's operations. While the company has measures in place, the evolving nature of cyber threats requires continuous vigilance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Vertical Integration
Alcoa's control over the entire aluminum supply chain, from bauxite mining to alumina refining and aluminum production, positions it well to navigate commodity price fluctuations.
Strategic Initiatives
The company is implementing initiatives expected to yield significant annualized EBITDA improvements by the end of 2025, driven by lower raw material costs and enhanced operational efficiencies.
Market Tailwinds
Geopolitical risks have tightened aluminum supply, pushing prices higher. The global aluminum alloy market is also projected for substantial growth.
Institutional Interest
Institutional investors have shown significant buying interest in Alcoa over the past year, with substantial inflows recorded.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.07
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.15
+161.2% from the low
52-Week High
$75.70
-16.7% from the high
1 Month
-11.18%
3 Month
+11.87%
YTD
+11.5%
1 Year
+151.6%
3Y CAGR
+20.4%
5Y CAGR
+9.2%
10Y CAGR
+10.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.0x
vs 10.5x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +9.8% median
-33% below peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 4.7% median
+90% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA AA Alcoa Corporation | $16.3B | 9.0x | +6.5% | 9.0% | Buy | +9.1% |
CEN CENX Century Aluminum Company | $5.8B | 6.0x | +5.6% | 3.4% | Hold | +22.0% |
KAL KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | $2.9B | 18.7x | +11.1% | 4.1% | Hold | -9.0% |
CST CSTM Constellium SE | $4.5B | 10.5x | +9.8% | 4.7% | Buy | +8.2% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $82.9B | 21.3x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +16.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AA Dividend and Capital Return
AA returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.63% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
Payout Ratio
9.1%
How AA Splits Its Return
Div 0.63%
Dividend 0.63%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.39
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
263M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | +300.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsAA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying +9.1% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $837.
02What is the AA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AA is $69 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+26.8% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (-23.9%). The base case model target is $60.
03Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock overvalued in 2026?
AA trades at 9.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AA in 2026 are: (1) Weakening Cash Flow — Alcoa has experienced a significant year-over-year decrease in free cash flow, with Q1 2023 showing negative free cash flow due to increases in working capital. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — The profitability of Alcoa is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the prices of alumina and aluminum. (3) Geopolitical Instability — Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East can disrupt supply chains, leading to idled facilities and increased production costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alcoa Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AA will report consensus revenue of $13.6B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.70 (+7.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.9B in revenue.
06When does Alcoa Corporation (AA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Alcoa Corporation generate?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) generated $567M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.5%. AA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).