Upside case
Bull case
$75+27.1%
AA would need investors to value it at roughly 10x earnings — about 2x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
24 bullish · 1 bearish · 42 covering AA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+27.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $75
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.4B
AA price targets
Three scenarios for where AA stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bear
$36
Base
$57
Bull
$75
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57-3.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AA — at roughly 7x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-39.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push AA down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alcoa Corporation
AA · NYSEBasic MaterialsAluminumDecember year-end
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum producer that mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts it into primary aluminum products. It generates revenue through three main segments—bauxite mining (~10%), alumina refining (~35%), and aluminum production (~55%)—with additional income from hydroelectric power sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated global operations, low-cost hydroelectric power access for smelting, and established customer relationships in industrial markets.
Market Cap
$15.4B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
9.0%
AA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+38.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.32
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.02/$-0.14
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.26/$0.93
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.40/$1.60
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.32 | +21.0% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.02/$-0.14 | +85.8% | $3.0B/$3.1B | -3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.26/$0.93 | +36.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40/$1.60 | -12.5% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.4B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$14.4B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.28
-1.9% YoY
FY2
$3.69
-13.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$567M
FCF Margin: 4.5%
Next Earnings
July 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.11
Expected Revenue
$4.0B
AA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $14.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aluminum
51.1%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Aluminum is the largest disclosed segment at 51.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.9% YoY.
AA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $113 — implies +90.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
90.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AA
13.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
45% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AA
13.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
43% discount
vs AA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.4x
vs
5Y Average
57.8x
77% discount
Forward PE
7.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-60%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-45%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-43%
5Y Avg
57.8x
-77%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-43%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-22%
5Y Avg
6.5x
+33%
Price/FCF
27.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+31%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-7%
5Y Avg
65.7x
-59%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-61%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-36%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+55%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
S&P 500
1.91%
-65%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-53%
5Y Avg
0.82%
-18%
| Metric | AA | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.6x | 18.8x-60% | 14.9x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.4x | 24.4x-45% | 23.6x-43% | 57.8x-77% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6x | 15.2x-43% | 11.0x-22% | 6.5x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 27.1x | 20.7x+31% | 29.0x | 65.7x-59% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-61% | 1.9x-36% | 0.8x+55% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.67% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.82% |
AA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AA 12.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
13.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$567M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.39
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
259M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Carbon tax exposure
Carbon taxes could penalize Alcoa's existing asset base, leading to stagnant or declining revenue.
High Risk
Technological innovation risk
Failure of new technologies to deliver expected results could negatively impact growth prospects.
Medium
Market dependency
Growth is highly dependent on external market factors, including aluminum price cycles.
Medium
Commodity price volatility
Alumina and aluminum price fluctuations could impact financial performance, as modeled in bear scenarios.
Lower
Operational execution
Smelter restarts and production targets (e.g., San Ciprián) carry execution risks that may affect output goals.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Low-carbon product leadership
Alcoa's Sustana brand offers the industry’s most extensive portfolio of low-carbon products, positioning it well for sustainability-driven demand.
Strong price scenario modeling
Bullish alumina and aluminum price scenarios for 2026, based on historical cycles and Alcoa's sensitivities, suggest potential revenue growth.
Green premium revenue growth
Rapid commercialization of new tech and strong green premiums could drive revenue CAGR towards +6%, supporting a bullish outlook.
Q4 2025 earnings beat
Alcoa's Q4 2025 results exceeded estimates with 6.3% revenue growth and 32.6% EPS growth, reinforcing investor confidence.
Upcoming regulatory catalysts
Key catalysts include the EPA's mid-2026 Australia mine decision and 2026 guidance, which could significantly impact Alcoa's operations.
Production and shipment guidance
Alcoa's January 2026 guidance for higher alumina and aluminum production and shipments frames expectations for volumes and costs amid tariff policy reviews.
Supply constraints and demand
Bullish thesis is supported by supply constraints and strong demand from South America, which could drive prices and revenues higher.
Innovative wheel solutions
Alcoa's lighter, brighter, and stronger wheel solutions continue to innovate, contributing to the company's bottom line and market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.33
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$27.72
+114.0% from the low
52-Week High
$84.38
-29.7% from the high
1 Month
-5.21%
3 Month
-7.62%
YTD
+4.9%
1 Year
+109.3%
3Y CAGR
+20.1%
5Y CAGR
+13.1%
10Y CAGR
+10.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.6x
vs 10.1x median
-25% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +8.6% median
-39% below peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 10.3% median
-13% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA AA Alcoa Corporation | $15.4B | 7.6x | +5.2% | 9.0% | Buy | +27.1% |
CEN CENX Century Aluminum Company | $5.1B | 4.5x | +9.1% | 13.7% | Hold | +47.0% |
KAL KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | $3.0B | 17.8x | +8.2% | 4.1% | Hold | -9.5% |
CST CSTM Constellium SE | $4.6B | 10.1x | +8.6% | 4.7% | Buy | +6.6% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $98.7B | 25.4x | +7.1% | 10.3% | Buy | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AA Dividend and Capital Return
AA returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.67% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
Payout Ratio
9.1%
How AA Splits Its Return
Div 0.67%
Dividend 0.67%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.39
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
259M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | +300.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsAA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +27.1% from the current price of $59. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $75.
02What is the AA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AA is $75 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+34.8% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (+18.0%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock overvalued in 2026?
AA trades at 7.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AA in 2026 are: (1) Carbon tax exposure — Carbon taxes could penalize Alcoa's existing asset base, leading to stagnant or declining revenue. (2) Technological innovation risk — Failure of new technologies to deliver expected results could negatively impact growth prospects. (3) Market dependency — Growth is highly dependent on external market factors, including aluminum price cycles. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alcoa Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AA will report consensus revenue of $13.4B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.28 (-1.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.4B in revenue.
06When does Alcoa Corporation (AA) report its next earnings?
Alcoa Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-15. Consensus expects EPS of $2.11 and revenue of $4.0B. Over recent quarters, AA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Alcoa Corporation generate?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) generated $567M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.5%. AA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).