Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NEM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering NEM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$138
+26.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $120.8B
NEM price targets
Three scenarios for where NEM stock could go
Current
~$109
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $109
Base
$146
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$146+34.3%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Newmont Corporation
NEM · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, operating mines across the Americas, Australia, and Africa. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — roughly 90% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from copper, silver, zinc, and lead byproducts. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, geographically diversified portfolio of long-life, low-cost gold reserves — the largest in the industry — providing scale and operational stability.
Market Cap
$120.8B
Revenue TTM
$17.2B
Net Income TTM
$5.3B
Net Margin
30.5%
NEM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.43/$0.91
Revenue
$5.3B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.71/$1.44
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.52/$2.07
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.90/$2.07
Revenue
$7.3B/$6.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.43/$0.91 | +58.0% | $5.3B/$4.7B | +12.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71/$1.44 | +18.8% | $5.4B/$5.2B | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.52/$2.07 | +21.7% | $6.8B/$6.2B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.90/$2.07 | +40.1% | $7.3B/$6.8B | +8.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.3B
+35.1% YoY
FY2
$26.1B
+12.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.43
— YoY
FY2
$8.61
+15.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.9B
FCF Margin: 75.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NEM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NEM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gold Dore
63.2%
+16.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED KINGDOM
61.5%
+19.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Gold Dore is the largest disclosed segment at 63.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 16.4% YoY.
UNITED KINGDOM is the largest reported region at 61.5%, up 19.2% YoY.
NEM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $140 — implies +29.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NEM
17.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
32% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
NEM
17.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
24% discount
vs NEM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.0x
vs
5Y Average
23.7x
28% discount
Forward PE
10.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-45%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-32%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-24%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-28%
PEG Ratio
1.33x
S&P 500
1.72x
-23%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-43%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-21%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+8%
Price/FCF
16.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-22%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-35%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-20%
Price/Sales
5.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+75%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+189%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+56%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
S&P 500
1.87%
-51%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-31%
5Y Avg
3.19%
-71%
| Metric | NEM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg NEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.5x | 19.1x-45% | 15.2x-31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.0x | 25.1x-32% | 22.3x-24% | 23.7x-28% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.33x | 1.72x-23% | 1.17x+13% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7x | 15.2x-43% | 11.0x-21% | 8.0x |
| Price/FCF | 16.5x | 21.1x-22% | 25.6x-35% | 20.7x-20% |
| Price/Sales | 5.5x | 3.1x+75% | 1.9x+189% | 3.5x+56% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 3.19% |
NEM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNEM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NEM generates $12.9B in free cash flow at a 75.0% margin — 24.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
49.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
75.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$7.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNEM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Gold Price Dependence
Newmont’s profitability is highly sensitive to gold price movements; a sustained decline in gold prices would directly erode earnings and financial performance.
Medium
Production Fluctuations
Lower production volumes raise unit costs and compress margins; any significant drop in output could materially impact profitability.
Medium
Execution Risk on Growth Projects
Expansion and new project construction carry risks of permitting delays, cost overruns, and construction setbacks, which could strain near‑term cash flow.
Medium
Rising Cost Pressures
Persistent inflation in energy, labor, and equipment costs, coupled with lower production volumes, is expected to push Newmont’s unit costs higher.
Medium
Regulatory Jurisdictional Risk
Operations in multiple countries expose Newmont to varying legal environments; recent changes in Mexican mining laws and proposed Ghana royalty adjustments could increase tax obligations.
Lower
Environmental Incidents
Past cyanide spills have led to accusations of negligence, water contamination, and reputational damage, potentially resulting in fines and remediation costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NEM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Cost‑Efficient Gold Production
In 2024 Newmont produced 7 million ounces of gold at an average realized price of $2,408 per ounce while keeping all‑in costs at $1,126 per ounce. This yields a gross margin exceeding $1,280 per ounce, underscoring strong cost discipline.
Co‑Product Revenue Diversification
Beyond gold, Newmont generates significant income from copper, silver, and zinc co‑products, which help offset gold production costs and provide earnings resilience across commodity cycles.
Deep Proven Reserves & Tier 1 Mines
The company holds 134.1 million ounces of proven gold reserves and owns a substantial share of Tier 1 mines—assets that produce over 500,000 ounces annually, have at least 10 years of mine life, and sit in the lower half of the global cost curve.
Global Asset Base in Stable Jurisdictions
Newmont operates in 15 countries, concentrating assets in politically stable regions. Recent demand surges in Japan and South Korea have further bolstered its international revenue profile.
Strong Balance Sheet & Market Position
With a market capitalization of approximately $131.45 billion and a notable reduction in debt over the past year, Newmont maintains a robust financial footing that supports continued investment and growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NEM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$109.01
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$48.27
+125.8% from the low
52-Week High
$134.88
-19.2% from the high
1 Month
-3.39%
3 Month
+0.44%
YTD
+7.7%
1 Year
+105.5%
3Y CAGR
+30.8%
5Y CAGR
+10.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NEM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.5x
vs 9.2x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+35.1%
vs +31.7% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
30.5%
vs 36.0% median
-15% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $89.2B | 12.8x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +33.4% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $34.5B | 9.2x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +46.7% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 8.4x | +35.0% | 27.6% | Buy | +46.2% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $37.4B | 7.1x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +30.3% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $56.9B | 23.1x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +21.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NEM Dividend and Capital Return
NEM returns capital mainly through $2.3B/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.92% dividend — combining for 2.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
Payout Ratio
15.6%
How NEM Splits Its Return
Div 0.92%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.92%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
21M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | -37.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | -27.3% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsNEM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $138, implying +26.1% from the current price of $109.
02What is the NEM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NEM is $138 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $176 (+61.5% from today), and the low-end target is $97 (-11.0%). The base case model target is $146.
03Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock overvalued in 2026?
NEM trades at 10.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NEM in 2026 are: (1) Gold Price Dependence — Newmont’s profitability is highly sensitive to gold price movements; a sustained decline in gold prices would directly erode earnings and financial performance. (2) Production Fluctuations — Lower production volumes raise unit costs and compress margins; any significant drop in output could materially impact profitability. (3) Execution Risk on Growth Projects — Expansion and new project construction carry risks of permitting delays, cost overruns, and construction setbacks, which could strain near‑term cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Newmont Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NEM will report consensus revenue of $23.3B (+35.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.43 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.1B in revenue.
06When does Newmont Corporation (NEM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NEM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Newmont Corporation generate?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) generated $12.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 75.0%. NEM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.3B TTM).