Upside case
Bull case
$145+40.1%
NEM would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering NEM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$143
+38.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$70 – $145
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $115.0B
NEM price targets
Three scenarios for where NEM stock could go
Current
~$104
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $104
Bear
$70
Base
$110
Bull
$145
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$110+6.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NEM — at roughly 11x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$70-33.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push NEM down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Newmont Corporation
NEM · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, operating mines across the Americas, Australia, and Africa. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — roughly 90% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from copper, silver, zinc, and lead byproducts. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, geographically diversified portfolio of long-life, low-cost gold reserves — the largest in the industry — providing scale and operational stability.
Market Cap
$115.0B
Revenue TTM
$17.2B
Net Income TTM
$5.3B
Net Margin
30.5%
NEM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.43/$0.91
Revenue
$5.3B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.71/$1.44
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.52/$2.07
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.90/$2.07
Revenue
$7.3B/$6.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.43/$0.91 | +58.0% | $5.3B/$4.7B | +12.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71/$1.44 | +18.8% | $5.4B/$5.2B | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.52/$2.07 | +21.7% | $6.8B/$6.2B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.90/$2.07 | +40.1% | $7.3B/$6.8B | +8.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.0B
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$23.8B
+19.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.99
— YoY
FY2
$7.06
+17.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.9B
FCF Margin: 75.0%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.25
Expected Revenue
$6.5B
NEM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NEM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gold Dore
63.2%
+16.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED KINGDOM
61.5%
+19.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Gold Dore is the largest disclosed segment at 63.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 16.4% YoY.
UNITED KINGDOM is the largest reported region at 61.5%, up 19.2% YoY.
NEM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $110 — implies +6.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NEM
16.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
34% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
NEM
16.2x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
31% discount
vs NEM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.2x
vs
5Y Average
23.7x
32% discount
Forward PE
10.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-46%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-34%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-32%
PEG Ratio
1.26x
S&P 500
1.66x
-24%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-25%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+3%
Price/FCF
15.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-24%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-46%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-24%
Price/Sales
5.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+68%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+177%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+49%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
S&P 500
1.91%
-50%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-32%
5Y Avg
3.19%
-70%
| Metric | NEM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg NEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.1x | 18.8x-46% | 14.9x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.2x | 24.4x-34% | 23.6x-31% | 23.7x-32% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.26x | 1.66x-24% | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2x | 15.2x-46% | 11.0x-25% | 8.0x |
| Price/FCF | 15.8x | 20.7x-24% | 29.0x-46% | 20.7x-24% |
| Price/Sales | 5.2x | 3.1x+68% | 1.9x+177% | 3.5x+49% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 3.19% |
NEM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNEM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NEM generates $12.9B in free cash flow at a 75.0% margin — 24.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
49.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
75.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$7.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNEM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Limited upside potential
Low beta of 0.46 suggests limited participation in bull markets.
High Risk
Geopolitical risk
Operations in higher geopolitical risk regions could impact production and costs.
Medium
Dividend sustainability
Dividend payments may be affected by fluctuating gold prices and operational costs.
Lower
Workforce diversity
Global operations require managing a diverse workforce across different regions.
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Gold and copper price fluctuations directly impact revenue and profitability.
Medium
Operational risks
Mining operations are subject to environmental, safety, and regulatory challenges.
High Risk
Leverage and balance sheet
High leverage could strain financials during downturns in commodity prices.
Medium
Competitive positioning
Competition with other major miners like Barrick and Agnico Eagle could pressure margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NEM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Gold price momentum
The bullish thesis hinges on gold price momentum, particularly around the $5,000/oz level, which is critical for sector valuation.
Bull scenario valuation
In a bull scenario with $7,000 gold and 25x earnings, fair value could rise to $235, offering significant upside potential.
Industry leadership
Newmont is the leading gold and copper producer with a world-class portfolio, reinforcing its competitive position in the mining sector.
Global operations
With assets and operations across North America and globally, Newmont benefits from geographic diversification and scale.
Valuation metrics
Trailing and forward P/E ratios of 15.66 and 15.82 suggest reasonable valuation relative to earnings potential.
Hedge against volatility
Newmont serves as a hedge against market volatility, particularly in 2026, given its exposure to gold prices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NEM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$103.79
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$55.37
+87.4% from the low
52-Week High
$134.88
-23.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.52%
3 Month
-2.58%
YTD
+2.5%
1 Year
+78.1%
3Y CAGR
+34.0%
5Y CAGR
+10.6%
10Y CAGR
+11.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NEM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.1x
vs 9.0x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.2%
vs +13.7% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
30.5%
vs 36.0% median
-15% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $83.5B | 12.2x | +15.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +48.9% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $31.9B | 8.8x | +13.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +70.0% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 9.0x | +11.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +62.9% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $34.5B | 6.9x | +11.3% | 23.2% | Hold | +53.2% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NEM Dividend and Capital Return
NEM returns capital mainly through $2.3B/year in buybacks (2.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.96% dividend — combining for 3.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
Payout Ratio
15.6%
How NEM Splits Its Return
Div 0.96%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 0.96%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | -37.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | -27.3% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsNEM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $143, implying +38.1% from the current price of $104. The bear case scenario is $70 and the bull case is $145.
02What is the NEM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NEM is $143 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $175 (+68.6% from today), and the low-end target is $111 (+6.9%). The base case model target is $110.
03Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock overvalued in 2026?
NEM trades at 10.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NEM in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical risk — Operations in higher geopolitical risk regions could impact production and costs. (2) Commodity price volatility — Gold and copper price fluctuations directly impact revenue and profitability. (3) Leverage and balance sheet — High leverage could strain financials during downturns in commodity prices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Newmont Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NEM will report consensus revenue of $20.0B (+16.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.99 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.8B in revenue.
06When does Newmont Corporation (NEM) report its next earnings?
Newmont Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $2.25 and revenue of $6.5B. Over recent quarters, NEM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Newmont Corporation generate?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) generated $12.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 75.0%. NEM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.3B TTM).