AAL trades 34.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $19.90.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AAL achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 90.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 38 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $19.90, based on estimates from 38 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $14.83, this represents a potential upside of +34.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $9.82B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $13.00 to a high of $25.00, representing a 60% spread in expectations. The median target of $19.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 17 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,18 rating it Hold, and 3 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, AAL trades at a trailing P/E of 87.2x and forward P/E of 90.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +133.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $57.32, with bear and bull scenarios of $36.11 and $75.52 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $58.8B | $89.35 | $107.75 | +20.6% | Buy | 13.4x | 45 |
 UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $40.7B | $125.34 | $160.89 | +28.4% | Buy | 12.0x | 47 |
 LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. | $21.7B | $44.26 | $54.46 | +23.0% | Hold | 12.9x | 45 |
 JBLUJetBlue Airways Corporation | $2.1B | $5.65 | $6.39 | +13.1% | Hold | — | 37 |
 ALGTAllegiant Travel Company | $1.7B | $85.75 | $138.00 | +60.9% | Buy | 12.0x | 31 |
 SKYWSkyWest, Inc. | $4.3B | $107.58 | $108.00 | +0.4% | Buy | 9.9x | 17 |
 ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | $1.5B | $6.69 | $7.00 | +4.6% | Hold | — | 13 |
 MESAMesa Air Group, Inc. | $879M | $21.00 | — | — | Hold | 30.9x | 6 |
 SNCYSun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $876M | $16.17 | $21.00 | +29.9% | Buy | 20.5x | 11 |
 BAThe Boeing Company | $183.1B | $231.67 | $274.29 | +18.4% | Buy | — | 55 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AAL stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AAL is $19.9, representing 34.2% upside from the current price of $14.83. With 38 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AAL has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 38 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 18 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $19.9 implies 34.2% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 90.4268x, AAL trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $19.9 (34.2% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $25 for AAL, while the most conservative target is $13. The consensus of $19.9 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $76 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AAL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 38 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 17 have Buy ratings, 18 recommend Hold, and 3 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AAL stock forecast based on 38 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $19.9, with estimates ranging from $13 (bear case) to $25 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $57, with bear/bull scenarios of $36/$76.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AAL's fair value at $57 (base case), with a bear case of $36 and bull case of $76. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
AAL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 90.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 87.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AAL, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $19.9 price target (34.2% upside). 17 of 38 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AAL analyst price targets range from $13 to $25, a 60% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $19.9 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $36-$76 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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