Upside case
Bull case
$407+67.4%
ADSK would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
38 bullish · 4 bearish · 51 covering ADSK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
9
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$338
+39.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $407
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.0B
ADSK price targets
Three scenarios for where ADSK stock could go
Current
~$243
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $243
Base
$485
Bull
$407
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$485+99.4%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Autodesk, Inc.
ADSK · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationJanuary year-end
Autodesk is a leading provider of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software used by architects, engineers, and creative professionals worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through subscription-based software sales—with its Architecture, Engineering & Construction segment contributing about 45% of revenue and Manufacturing about 35%—plus maintenance and cloud services. The company's moat lies in its industry-standard software ecosystems—particularly AutoCAD—that create high switching costs and network effects across professional workflows.
Market Cap
$52.0B
Revenue TTM
$6.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
16.6%
ADSK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.29/$2.15
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.62/$2.45
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.50
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.85/$2.65
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.29/$2.15 | +6.5% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.62/$2.45 | +6.9% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.67/$2.50 | +6.8% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.85/$2.65 | +7.5% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.9B
+16.9% YoY
FY2
$8.7B
+9.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.06
+91.5% YoY
FY2
$10.43
+3.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.4B
FCF Margin: 35.4%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.84
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
ADSK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ADSK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Architecture Engineering And Construction
47.9%
+13.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
44.3%
+11.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Architecture Engineering And Construction is the largest disclosed segment at 47.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 44.3%, up 11.4% YoY.
ADSK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $341 — implies +39.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
39.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADSK
46.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+84% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ADSK
46.5x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+69% premium
vs ADSK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.5x
vs
5Y Average
67.6x
31% discount
Forward PE
19.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+3%
Technology
21.7x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+84%
Technology
27.5x
+69%
5Y Avg
67.6x
-31%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+118%
Technology
17.4x
+92%
5Y Avg
47.2x
-30%
Price/FCF
21.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1%
Technology
19.8x
+9%
5Y Avg
34.2x
-37%
Price/Sales
7.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+145%
Technology
2.4x
+218%
5Y Avg
10.2x
-25%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ADSK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ADSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.6x | 19.1x | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.5x | 25.2x+84% | 27.5x+69% | 67.6x-31% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.3x | 15.3x+118% | 17.4x+92% | 47.2x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 21.6x | 21.3x | 19.8x | 34.2x-37% |
| Price/Sales | 7.7x | 3.1x+145% | 2.4x+218% | 10.2x-25% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
ADSK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADSK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ADSK generates $2.4B in free cash flow at a 35.4% margin — 33.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
96.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$485M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
215M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADSK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Internal Investigation
Autodesk disclosed an internal investigation into its free cash flow and non‑GAAP operating margin reporting practices, leading to a delay in its 10‑K filing. The probe raises concerns about the accuracy of key financial metrics and could result in restatements or regulatory scrutiny.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
As Autodesk increasingly relies on cloud‑based technologies, it faces heightened cybersecurity risks. A breach could compromise customer data, damage its reputation, and trigger costly remediation and legal liabilities.
Medium
Weak ARR Growth
Autodesk’s Annual Recurring Revenue growth has slightly lagged the sector, suggesting competition may be hindering longer‑term customer commitments. This trend could limit future subscription revenue expansion.
Medium
Long CAC Payback
The company has experienced negative Customer Acquisition Cost payback periods, indicating that sales and marketing investments are outpacing revenue. This inefficiency could erode profitability if not addressed.
Medium
Shrinking Operating Margin
Autodesk’s operating margin has decreased, raising questions about expense management despite revenue growth. A lower margin compresses earnings and limits reinvestment capacity.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Autodesk’s valuation has been described as premium or elevated, making the stock more volatile during market pullbacks or shifts toward valuation discipline. Investors may face downside risk if the market reverts to more conservative multiples.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADSK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Health & Profitability
Autodesk has consistently grown revenue while maintaining healthy profit margins and efficient capital utilization. The company has delivered significant EBITDA and EPS growth in recent years, and its high ROE and ROIC demonstrate strong shareholder returns. Autodesk also functions as a cash cow, converting a substantial portion of revenue into cash flow.
Cloud‑First Growth & AI Monetization
The firm is scaling its cloud platform and expanding into adjacent workflows, monetizing AI‑driven productivity gains. Autodesk leads the design and engineering software market with flagship products such as AutoCAD and Revit, and its cloud‑native platform and AI capabilities give it a competitive edge in AECO and manufacturing. The company is actively investing in AI co‑pilots and improving data continuity across its toolchains.
AI & Cloud Adoption Advantage
Autodesk is uniquely positioned to benefit from the rising adoption of AI and cloud computing in design and manufacturing. Its proprietary access to vast volumes of 3D data and deep industry context enables it to develop and scale AI solutions more effectively than competitors.
Stable Recurring Revenue Model
The company has successfully transitioned to a subscription‑based SaaS model, with a high percentage of recurring revenue that provides stability and predictability. This recurring revenue stream underpins long‑term growth and supports continued investment in AI and cloud initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADSK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$243.10
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$214.10
+13.5% from the low
52-Week High
$329.09
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
+2.26%
3 Month
+1.12%
YTD
-15.2%
1 Year
-12.8%
3Y CAGR
+8.2%
5Y CAGR
-3.1%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADSK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.6x
vs 25.9x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.9%
vs +7.9% median
+113% above peer median
Net Margin
16.6%
vs 25.3% median
-34% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADS ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | $52.0B | 19.6x | +16.9% | 16.6% | Buy | +39.0% |
PTC PTC PTC Inc. | $16.3B | 17.8x | +7.9% | 41.6% | Buy | +42.4% |
CDN CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $98.0B | 44.7x | +15.0% | 20.9% | Buy | +4.5% |
SNP SNPS Synopsys, Inc. | $96.6B | 34.9x | +17.7% | 13.8% | Buy | +7.8% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.07T | 24.9x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +33.3% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $557.7B | 25.9x | +6.4% | 25.3% | Buy | +32.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADSK Dividend and Capital Return
ADSK returns 2.6% annually — null% through dividends and 2.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
215M
At 2.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | $0.01 | -75.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| 2004 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% |
| 2003 | $0.06 | -20.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| 2002 | $0.07 | +25.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| 2001 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsADSK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $338, implying +39.0% from the current price of $243.
02What is the ADSK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADSK is $338 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $380 (+56.3% from today), and the low-end target is $279 (+14.8%). The base case model target is $485.
03Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADSK trades at 19.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADSK in 2026 are: (1) Internal Investigation — Autodesk disclosed an internal investigation into its free cash flow and non‑GAAP operating margin reporting practices, leading to a delay in its 10‑K filing. (2) Cybersecurity Threats — As Autodesk increasingly relies on cloud‑based technologies, it faces heightened cybersecurity risks. (3) Weak ARR Growth — Autodesk’s Annual Recurring Revenue growth has slightly lagged the sector, suggesting competition may be hindering longer‑term customer commitments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Autodesk, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADSK will report consensus revenue of $7.9B (+16.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.06 (+91.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.7B in revenue.
06When does Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) report its next earnings?
Autodesk, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $2.84 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, ADSK has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Autodesk, Inc. generate?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) generated $2.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.4%. ADSK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).