Upside case
Bull case
$47+460.2%
AEG would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 44x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Aegon Ltd. (AEG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
4 bullish · 4 bearish · 16 covering AEG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
8
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$8
-10.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $47
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.6B
AEG price targets
Three scenarios for where AEG stock could go
Current
~$8
Confidence
29 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $8
Base
$16
Bull
$47
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$16+95.6%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aegon Ltd.
AEG · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Aegon is a multinational insurance and asset management company offering life insurance, pensions, and retirement solutions across the Americas, Europe, and the UK. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums (life, accident, health) and asset management fees from its pension and investment products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified geographic footprint and long-standing institutional relationships in mature insurance markets.
Market Cap
$12.6B
Revenue TTM
$29.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
4.2%
AEG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
43%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-23.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.16
Revenue
$16.9B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.30
Revenue
$7.8B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.48
Revenue
$22.3B/$7.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.48
Revenue
$22.3B/$7.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.37/$0.16 | +124.7% | $16.9B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $0.43/$0.30 | +45.7% | $7.8B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $0.27/$0.48 | -43.7% | $22.3B/$7.5B | +195.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.27/$0.48 | -43.7% | $22.3B/$7.4B | +201.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$31.8B
+8.3% YoY
FY2
$37.7B
+18.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.67
-15.3% YoY
FY2
$0.69
+3.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$509M
FCF Margin: 1.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AEG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AEG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $402.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
100.0%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 4.0% YoY.
AEG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $7 — implies -12.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AEG
23.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
6% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AEG
23.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+78% premium
vs AEG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.8x
vs
5Y Average
15.0x
+59% premium
Forward PE
9.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Financial Services
10.5x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-6%
Financial Services
13.4x
+78%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+59%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+29%
Financial Services
11.4x
+72%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+170%
Price/FCF
15.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-29%
Financial Services
10.6x
+42%
5Y Avg
11.3x
+34%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Financial Services
2.3x
-76%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+18%
Dividend Yield
3.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+93%
Financial Services
2.68%
+35%
5Y Avg
2.51%
+45%
| Metric | AEG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AEG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.6x | 19.1x-50% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.8x | 25.2x | 13.4x+78% | 15.0x+59% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.6x | 15.3x+29% | 11.4x+72% | 7.3x+170% |
| Price/FCF | 15.1x | 21.3x-29% | 10.6x+42% | 11.3x+34% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 2.3x-76% | 0.5x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.63% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.51% |
AEG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAEG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AEG posts 4.2% net margin with 13.3% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$29.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-10.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.79
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
13.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.2%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
8.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$925M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.26
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
75.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAEG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability and Valuation
Aegon's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.2%, significantly lower than the U.S. life insurance peers' average ROE of around 20%. This disparity raises concerns about the company's profitability relative to its valuation, which may be perceived as high given its earnings performance.
High Risk
Dividend Sustainability
Despite being a leading dividend payer, Aegon faces significant concerns regarding the sustainability of its current dividend. Analysts project that the payout ratio may exceed earnings, putting future dividend payments at risk.
High Risk
Market Concentration
Aegon is heavily concentrated in the U.S. market, with its Transamerica division accounting for approximately 70% of its business. This concentration exposes the company to risks associated with U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations and interest rate changes.
Medium
Debt and Solvency
While Aegon's debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.74, there are indications that interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Additionally, the company's dividend is not sufficiently supported by free cash flows, raising concerns about its financial stability.
Medium
Investment Portfolio Opacity
Aegon's investment portfolio includes a significant portion classified as 'other investments,' which lack transparency regarding credit quality and liquidity. This opacity complicates risk assessment, particularly in volatile market conditions.
Medium
Transformation and Divestitures
Aegon is undergoing a strategic transformation that includes divestitures, such as the sale of its UK unit. This process has resulted in volatile profits and revenue contraction, with execution risks associated with these sales and the costs of relocating its headquarters to the U.S.
Lower
Cash Flow
Although Aegon reports positive operating cash flow, its total net cash flow has been negative due to substantial outflows for financing activities, including dividends and stock buybacks. This trend may impact the company's liquidity position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AEG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervaluation Potential
Some analyses suggest AEG could be undervalued, with a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis indicating a fair value significantly higher than its current trading price.
Analyst Consensus
Multiple analysts have issued 'Moderate Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings for AEG stock. The consensus 12-month price target from analysts is around $10.00, representing a potential upside of over 24% from its current price.
Financial Strength and Growth
The company has demonstrated strong TTM EPS growth of 111.55%, outperforming its industry average. Free cash flow (FCF) CAGR over three years is 101%, placing it in the top 10% of its industry.
Dividend Growth
Aegon has a history of increasing dividends for five consecutive years, with TTM dividend growth in the top 25% of its industry.
Technical Indicators
Some technical indicators, such as the relation between short-term and long-term moving averages (a 'Golden Cross'), suggest a positive outlook and potential for upward momentum.
Shareholder Returns
AEG has exceeded the US Insurance industry's returns over the past year.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AEG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$8.39
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.61
+26.9% from the low
52-Week High
$8.41
-0.2% from the high
1 Month
+13.84%
3 Month
+6.47%
YTD
+8.1%
1 Year
+26.4%
3Y CAGR
+23.9%
5Y CAGR
+12.3%
10Y CAGR
+4.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AEG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.6x
vs 7.4x median
+30% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.3%
vs +6.3% median
+32% above peer median
Net Margin
4.2%
vs 5.6% median
-25% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEG AEG Aegon Ltd. | $12.6B | 9.6x | +8.3% | 4.2% | Hold | -10.6% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $22.0B | 10.9x | -0.3% | 7.6% | Hold | -6.9% |
EQH EQH Equitable Holdings, Inc. | $12.3B | 6.1x | +9.5% | -12.6% | Buy | +35.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AEG Dividend and Capital Return
AEG returns capital mainly through $925M/year in buybacks (8.6% buyback yield), with a modest 3.63% dividend — combining for 12.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
12.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.6%
Dividend Yield
3.63%
Payout Ratio
75.7%
How AEG Splits Its Return
Div 3.63%
Buyback 8.6%
Dividend 3.63%Buybacks 8.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.26
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
28.9%
5Y Div CAGR
44.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$925M
Estimated Shares Retired
110M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
At 5.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.44 | +26.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.35 | +24.6% | 7.8% | 12.2% |
| 2023 | $0.28 | +35.9% | 9.8% | 14.4% |
| 2022 | $0.21 | +24.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAEG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aegon Ltd. (AEG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aegon Ltd. (AEG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $8, implying -10.6% from the current price of $8.
02What is the AEG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AEG is $8 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8 (-10.6% from today), and the low-end target is $8 (-10.6%). The base case model target is $16.
03Is Aegon Ltd. (AEG) stock overvalued in 2026?
AEG trades at 9.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aegon Ltd. (AEG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AEG in 2026 are: (1) Profitability and Valuation — Aegon's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9. (2) Dividend Sustainability — Despite being a leading dividend payer, Aegon faces significant concerns regarding the sustainability of its current dividend. (3) Market Concentration — Aegon is heavily concentrated in the U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aegon Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AEG will report consensus revenue of $31.8B (+8.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.67 (-15.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $37.7B in revenue.
06When does Aegon Ltd. (AEG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AEG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Aegon Ltd. generate?
Aegon Ltd. (AEG) generated $509M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.7%. AEG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($925M TTM).