Upside case
Bull case
$189+136.4%
MET would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MetLife, Inc. (MET) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering MET
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$97
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$35 – $189
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.3B
MET price targets
Three scenarios for where MET stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $80
Bear
$35
Base
$104
Bull
$189
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$104+29.9%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$35-56.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push MET down roughly 56% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MetLife, Inc.
MET · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - LifeDecember year-end
MetLife is a global insurance and financial services company offering life insurance, annuities, employee benefits, and asset management. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums across its U.S., Asia, Latin America, and EMEA segments — with the U.S. being its largest market — supplemented by investment income from its substantial asset portfolio. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, global diversification, and strong brand recognition built over 150+ years in the insurance industry.
Market Cap
$52.3B
Revenue TTM
$76.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.4B
Net Margin
4.4%
MET Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.96/$2.00
Revenue
$18.3B/$18.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.02/$2.15
Revenue
$17.3B/$18.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.34/$2.31
Revenue
$16.9B/$18.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.34
Revenue
$23.8B/$27.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.96/$2.00 | -2.0% | $18.3B/$18.4B | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.02/$2.15 | -6.0% | $17.3B/$18.5B | -6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.34/$2.31 | +1.3% | $16.9B/$18.6B | -9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.58/$2.34 | +10.3% | $23.8B/$27.2B | -12.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$75.2B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$77.1B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.31
+27.4% YoY
FY2
$7.72
+5.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.1B
FCF Margin: 23.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.22
Expected Revenue
$19.5B
MET beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MET Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Prepaid legal plans and administrative-only contracts
25.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Prepaid legal plans and administrative-only contracts is the largest disclosed segment at 25.5% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MET Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $75 — implies -6.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MET
16.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
34% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MET
16.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+25% premium
vs MET 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.7x
vs
5Y Average
17.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
8.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-57%
Financial Services
10.5x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-34%
Financial Services
13.4x
+25%
5Y Avg
17.3x
-3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-42%
Financial Services
11.4x
-23%
5Y Avg
9.7x
-9%
Price/FCF
2.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-86%
Financial Services
10.6x
-73%
5Y Avg
3.9x
-27%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-78%
Financial Services
2.3x
-70%
5Y Avg
0.8x
-15%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
S&P 500
1.88%
+51%
Financial Services
2.68%
+5%
5Y Avg
2.87%
-1%
| Metric | MET | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.2x | 19.1x-57% | 10.5x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.7x | 25.2x-34% | 13.4x+25% | 17.3x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8x | 15.3x-42% | 11.4x-23% | 9.7x |
| Price/FCF | 2.9x | 21.3x-86% | 10.6x-73% | 3.9x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-78% | 2.3x-70% | 0.8x-15% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.83% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.87% |
MET trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMET Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MET posts 4.4% net margin with 11.9% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$76.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.08
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
11.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$22.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.3%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
7.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.27
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
44.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
652M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMET Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt‑to‑Equity Leverage
MetLife’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 222%, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing. A sharp rise in interest rates or a downturn in earnings could strain debt servicing and limit capital flexibility.
High Risk
Interest Rate & Market Sensitivity
Profitability is highly sensitive to movements in interest rates, credit spreads, and equity markets, directly affecting the investment portfolio and net investment income. Volatile market conditions can erode returns and widen funding costs.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and potential government defaults pose a broad operating risk. Such macro shocks can tighten credit markets and increase claim costs across the insurance sector.
Medium
Net Investment Income Volatility
MetLife’s net investment income has fluctuated due to derivative gains and losses. Sudden swings in investment performance can disrupt earnings consistency and investor expectations.
Medium
Underwriting Spread Softening
A potential narrowing of underwriting or investment spreads could compress profitability. Seasonal claim variations in group benefits further add to earnings volatility.
Medium
Climate‑Related Regulatory Risk
Evolving climate regulations may impose new compliance costs and affect investment valuations. Regulatory shifts could increase operating expenses and alter asset allocation strategies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MET Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Resilient Multi‑Segment Business
MetLife’s five‑segment structure—insurance, annuities, employee benefits, asset management, and group benefits—provides earnings stability and diversification. The company’s scale and wide product mix help it weather market volatility.
Variable Investment Income Recovery
VII is expected to rebound from 25% of normal in 2023 to 75% in 2024, adding roughly $300‑$325 million to earnings. This recovery boosts profitability and supports future growth.
Growth in Key Segments
Voluntary benefits in the Group Benefits segment are expanding, and retirement spreads are improving, underscoring MetLife’s strong market positioning. The Asia segment contributes about 25% of earnings, with leading positions in Mexico and Chile.
Strategic Acquisitions & Partnerships
MetLife is enhancing capabilities through acquisitions such as Versant Health, PetFirst, and PineBridge Investments, and partnerships with Aura, Nayya, and Fidelity Investments. These moves broaden its benefits, asset management, and annuity offerings.
Consistent Capital Returns
The company’s robust balance sheet and liquidity enable steady shareholder returns. In 2025, MetLife returned nearly $4.4 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MET Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$80.16
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.33
+19.1% from the low
52-Week High
$83.64
-4.2% from the high
1 Month
+12.84%
3 Month
+4.95%
YTD
-0.2%
1 Year
+4.9%
3Y CAGR
+14.3%
5Y CAGR
+3.7%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MET vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.2x
vs 7.4x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs -0.3% median
+1987% above peer median
Net Margin
4.4%
vs 5.9% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
UNM UNM Unum Group | $13.0B | 9.2x | -1.3% | 5.9% | Hold | +22.1% |
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $22.0B | 10.9x | -0.3% | 7.6% | Hold | -6.9% |
EQH EQH Equitable Holdings, Inc. | $12.3B | 6.1x | +9.5% | -12.6% | Buy | +35.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MET Dividend and Capital Return
MET returns capital mainly through $3.9B/year in buybacks (7.4% buyback yield), with a modest 2.83% dividend — combining for 10.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 13 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.4%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
Payout Ratio
44.7%
How MET Splits Its Return
Div 2.83%
Buyback 7.4%
Dividend 2.83%Buybacks 7.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.27
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.3%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
48M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
652M
At 7.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.16 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.25 | +4.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% |
| 2024 | $2.15 | +4.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% |
| 2023 | $2.06 | +4.0% | 6.2% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $1.98 | +4.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsMET Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MetLife, Inc. (MET) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MetLife, Inc. (MET) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $97, implying +20.4% from the current price of $80. The bear case scenario is $35 and the bull case is $189.
02What is the MET stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MET is $97 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $102 (+27.2% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (+12.3%). The base case model target is $104.
03Is MetLife, Inc. (MET) stock overvalued in 2026?
MET trades at 8.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MetLife, Inc. (MET) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MET in 2026 are: (1) Debt‑to‑Equity Leverage — MetLife’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 222%, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing. (2) Interest Rate & Market Sensitivity — Profitability is highly sensitive to movements in interest rates, credit spreads, and equity markets, directly affecting the investment portfolio and net investment income. (3) Macroeconomic Uncertainty — Inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and potential government defaults pose a broad operating risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MetLife, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MET will report consensus revenue of $75.2B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.31 (+27.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $77.1B in revenue.
06When does MetLife, Inc. (MET) report its next earnings?
MetLife, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.22 and revenue of $19.5B. Over recent quarters, MET has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MetLife, Inc. generate?
MetLife, Inc. (MET) generated $18.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. MET returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($3.9B TTM).