Upside case
Bull case
$523+415.4%
PFG would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
25
analysts
5 bullish · 5 bearish · 25 covering PFG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
4
Hold
15
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
-6.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$53 – $523
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.0B
PFG price targets
Three scenarios for where PFG stock could go
Current
~$102
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $102
Bear
$53
Base
$129
Bull
$523
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$129+26.9%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$53-47.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push PFG down roughly 47% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Principal Financial Group, Inc.
PFG · NASDAQFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Principal Financial Group is a diversified financial services company offering retirement planning, asset management, and insurance products to businesses and individuals. It generates revenue primarily through retirement services (~40% of operating revenue), asset management fees (~25%), and insurance premiums (~35%) across its global operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated financial ecosystem—combining retirement planning with investment management and insurance—which creates sticky institutional relationships and cross-selling opportunities.
Market Cap
$22.0B
Revenue TTM
$15.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
7.6%
PFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.16/$1.97
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.20
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.19/$2.23
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.07/$2.01
Revenue
$3.5B/$4.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.16/$1.97 | +9.6% | $3.7B/$4.0B | -7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.10/$2.20 | -4.5% | $3.7B/$4.1B | -11.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.19/$2.23 | -1.8% | $4.5B/$4.1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07/$2.01 | +3.0% | $3.5B/$4.1B | -14.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.6B
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$15.5B
-0.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.61
+24.0% YoY
FY2
$6.66
+0.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 28.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PFG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PFG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment Retirement and Investor Services
50.2%
+2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Segment Retirement and Investor Services is the largest disclosed segment at 50.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.6% YoY.
PFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $70 — implies -31.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PFG
19.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
23% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
PFG
19.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+45% premium
vs PFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.3x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
+27% premium
Forward PE
10.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-43%
Financial Services
10.5x
+4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-23%
Financial Services
13.4x
+45%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+27%
PEG Ratio
13.99x
S&P 500
1.75x
+702%
Financial Services
1.03x
+1265%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-14%
Financial Services
11.4x
+14%
5Y Avg
10.3x
+27%
Price/FCF
5.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-77%
Financial Services
10.6x
-53%
5Y Avg
5.4x
-8%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-55%
Financial Services
2.3x
-37%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+11%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
S&P 500
1.88%
+59%
Financial Services
2.68%
+11%
5Y Avg
3.35%
-11%
| Metric | PFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg PFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.9x | 19.1x-43% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.3x | 25.2x-23% | 13.4x+45% | 15.2x+27% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.99x | 1.75x+702% | 1.03x+1265% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1x | 15.3x-14% | 11.4x+14% | 10.3x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 5.0x | 21.3x-77% | 10.6x-53% | 5.4x |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-55% | 2.3x-37% | 1.3x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.98% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.35% |
PFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPFG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
PFG posts 7.6% net margin with 9.9% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.33
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$227M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
4.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$903M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
217M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pagePFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Performance Food Group's foodservice segment is highly sensitive to economic downturns, which can lead to reduced consumer spending. This directly impacts sales volumes and revenue, potentially resulting in significant financial losses during recessions.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
PFG faces substantial risks from supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical events, logistical challenges, and labor shortages. These factors can lead to product shortages and increased transportation costs, severely affecting operational efficiency and profitability.
High Risk
High Indebtedness
PFG carries a significant amount of debt, which necessitates substantial cash flow for service payments. This high indebtedness can limit strategic flexibility and expose the company to rising interest costs due to reliance on variable interest rates.
Medium
Inflationary Environment
The rising costs of goods, particularly poultry and cheese, pose a risk to PFG's profitability. If these costs cannot be fully passed on to customers, the company's margins may be adversely affected.
Medium
Competition
Intense competition in the foodservice distribution sector can lead to aggressive pricing strategies from rivals. This competitive pressure may squeeze profit margins and impact overall financial performance.
Medium
Acquisition Integration Risks
PFG faces challenges in integrating acquired companies, such as Core-Mark, which can result in operational inefficiencies and loss of key personnel. Failure to realize expected synergies from acquisitions can negatively impact financial performance.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
PFG's heavy reliance on technology makes it vulnerable to disruptions or failures in its IT systems. Such incidents could significantly impact operations and customer service, leading to potential financial losses.
Lower
Climate Change
Changing climate conditions and severe weather pose direct and indirect financial and operational risks to PFG. These environmental factors can disrupt supply chains and affect product availability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Earnings and Revenue
PFG has demonstrated strong first-quarter 2026 results, exceeding expectations for adjusted earnings. The company's Retirement and Income Solutions segment is a significant revenue contributor and shows strong performance metrics, with improvements in variable investment income expected to drive further growth.
Consistent Dividend Growth
PFG has a history of increasing its dividends, with 17 consecutive years of dividend growth. The company announced a planned increase in its common dividend to $0.80, offering a dividend yield of 3.3% and a low cash payout ratio of 15.33%, indicating sustainability.
Active Share Buybacks
Principal has been actively repurchasing shares, with its share count decreasing by approximately 4% year-over-year. A completed $265 million buyback in Q1 2026 has coincided with a positive shift in sentiment, contributing to a total of $1.5 billion returned to shareholders in 2025.
Focus on Retirement Ecosystem
PFG is positioning itself to capitalize on growth opportunities within the retirement ecosystem, particularly targeting Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) and Global Asset Management. This strategic focus is expected to enhance earnings through multi-product offerings and full-service customers.
Positive Technical Indicators
PFG exhibits strong technicals, with both short-term and long-term trends being positive. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, indicating sustained momentum, and has shown a constructive consolidation pattern, which can precede a breakout.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$101.55
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.00
+35.4% from the low
52-Week High
$103.00
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.46%
3 Month
+4.32%
YTD
+13.6%
1 Year
+33.0%
3Y CAGR
+12.5%
5Y CAGR
+8.8%
10Y CAGR
+9.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.9x
vs 8.2x median
+33% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.3%
vs -1.3% median
+75% above peer median
Net Margin
7.6%
vs 5.7% median
+32% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $22.0B | 10.9x | -0.3% | 7.6% | Hold | -6.9% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
UNM UNM Unum Group | $13.0B | 9.2x | -1.3% | 5.9% | Hold | +22.1% |
VOY VOYA Voya Financial, Inc. | $7.5B | 8.4x | -3.2% | — | Buy | +12.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PFG Dividend and Capital Return
PFG returns 7.1% annually — 2.98% through dividends and 4.1% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.1%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
Payout Ratio
57.7%
How PFG Splits Its Return
Div 2.98%
Buyback 4.1%
Dividend 2.98%Buybacks 4.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
17Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.4%
5Y Div CAGR
6.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$903M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
217M
At 4.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.08 | +8.1% | 4.5% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | +9.6% | 6.0% | 9.7% |
| 2023 | $2.60 | +1.6% | 3.8% | 7.1% |
| 2022 | $2.56 | +4.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsPFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying -6.9% from the current price of $102. The bear case scenario is $53 and the bull case is $523.
02What is the PFG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PFG is $95 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $108 (+6.4% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-16.3%). The base case model target is $129.
03Is Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PFG trades at 10.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PFG in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — Performance Food Group's foodservice segment is highly sensitive to economic downturns, which can lead to reduced consumer spending. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — PFG faces substantial risks from supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical events, logistical challenges, and labor shortages. (3) High Indebtedness — PFG carries a significant amount of debt, which necessitates substantial cash flow for service payments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Principal Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PFG will report consensus revenue of $15.6B (-0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.61 (+24.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.5B in revenue.
06When does Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PFG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Principal Financial Group, Inc. generate?
Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.4%. PFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($903M TTM).