Upside case
Bull case
$111+926.5%
AGNC would need investors to value it at roughly 71x earnings — about 64x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
13 bullish · 3 bearish · 35 covering AGNC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
19
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$11
+3.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $111
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.7B
AGNC price targets
Three scenarios for where AGNC stock could go
Current
~$11
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $11
Base
$23
Bull
$111
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$23+114.6%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC · NASDAQReal EstateREIT - MortgageDecember year-end
AGNC Investment Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in agency mortgage-backed securities — those guaranteed by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It generates income from the spread between the interest earned on its mortgage assets and the cost of its borrowings — primarily through repurchase agreements — while also capturing potential capital gains. The company's key advantage lies in its specialized focus on agency MBS, which carry implicit government backing, reducing credit risk and allowing for higher leverage in its investment strategy.
Market Cap
$9.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.5B
Net Income TTM
$838M
Net Margin
24.2%
AGNC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.38/$0.42
Revenue
-$112M/$401M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.38
Revenue
$903M/$355M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.35/$0.37
Revenue
$944M/$941M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.42/$0.36
Revenue
$1.1B/$989M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.38/$0.42 | -9.5% | -$112M/$401M | -127.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.38 | -7.9% | $903M/$355M | +154.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35/$0.37 | -5.4% | $944M/$941M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.42/$0.36 | +16.7% | $1.1B/$989M | +6.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.9B
+42.6% YoY
FY2
$7.0B
+42.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.46
+84.1% YoY
FY2
$2.00
+36.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$604M
FCF Margin: 17.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AGNC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AGNC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $52 — implies +373.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
373.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AGNC
11.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
54% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
AGNC
11.6x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
52% discount
vs AGNC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.6x
vs
5Y Average
72.8x
84% discount
Forward PE
6.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-64%
Real Estate
26.5x
-74%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-54%
Real Estate
24.3x
-52%
5Y Avg
72.8x
-84%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Real Estate
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
2.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-84%
Real Estate
16.7x
-85%
5Y Avg
27.1x
-91%
Price/FCF
112.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+428%
Real Estate
15.7x
+615%
5Y Avg
24.9x
+351%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Real Estate
3.0x
-35%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-74%
Dividend Yield
14.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+679%
Real Estate
4.67%
+213%
5Y Avg
14.27%
+3%
| Metric | AGNC | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg AGNC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.9x | 19.1x-64% | 26.5x-74% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.6x | 25.2x-54% | 24.3x-52% | 72.8x-84% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4x | 15.3x-84% | 16.7x-85% | 27.1x-91% |
| Price/FCF | 112.6x | 21.3x+428% | 15.7x+615% | 24.9x+351% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-37% | 3.0x-35% | 7.5x-74% |
| Dividend Yield | 14.63% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 14.27% |
AGNC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAGNC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AGNC pays 14.6% total shareholder yield with 107.1% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+729.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
100.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
107.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.79
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
107.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$505M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$441M
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
Net cash ✓
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
14.6%
Dividend
14.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.58
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
143.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
897M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageAGNC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate and Spread Risk
AGNC is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which can significantly impact the value of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and hedging instruments. The ongoing war with Iran has increased market volatility, leading to wider spreads and a decline in AGNC's tangible book value.
High Risk
Leverage
AGNC employs significant leverage, borrowing against a large portion of its assets, which amplifies risks related to borrowing costs and asset values. This high leverage exposes AGNC to potential margin calls and defaults, particularly during periods of market volatility or low liquidity.
Medium
Geopolitical and Market Events
Geopolitical events, such as the war with Iran, can disrupt markets and negatively affect AGNC's performance. A systemic liquidity event, like a freeze in the repo market, could force AGNC to sell assets at unfavorable prices, further impacting its financial stability.
Medium
Dividend Risk
AGNC offers a high dividend yield, but there is a risk of dividend reduction if market conditions deteriorate significantly. The company's dividend coverage ratio for common stockholders was below 1.0 for the nine months ended September 30, indicating potential challenges in sustaining dividend payments.
Lower
Stock Price Volatility
AGNC's stock price and trading volume can be volatile, which may affect its liquidity and ability to raise equity capital. Recent significant insider selling, coupled with a lack of insider purchases, raises concerns about investor confidence in the company's future performance.
Lower
Financial Manipulation Concerns
There are concerns about potential financial manipulation, as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -1.51. Additionally, the company's tangible book value per share has significantly declined over the years, which could raise red flags for investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AGNC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Dividend Yield
AGNC is known for its substantial dividend yield, which is a primary draw for income-focused investors. The company has a history of returning value to shareholders through dividends, with current yields often cited around 13%.
Portfolio Quality and Safety
A significant portion of AGNC's portfolio, over 85%, consists of government-guaranteed Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). This minimizes credit risk, as these securities are backed by U.S. housing agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, making the portfolio relatively safe even amidst economic volatility.
Favorable Interest Rate Environment
Bulls believe that a stable or declining interest rate environment, coupled with a steepening yield curve, can benefit AGNC. Tightening mortgage spreads and favorable market conditions, such as lower benchmark rates, have positively impacted the company's portfolio value.
Tangible Book Value Growth
AGNC has shown a rebound in its tangible book value per share (TBVPS), which exceeded estimates and increased quarter-over-quarter. This positive trend is attributed to tightening mortgage spreads and favorable market conditions.
Resilience and Liquidity
AGNC's substantial portfolio, strong liquidity, and active hedging programs are seen as indicators of its resilience in navigating market volatility.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AGNC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$10.79
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.61
+25.3% from the low
52-Week High
$12.19
-11.5% from the high
1 Month
+5.78%
3 Month
-5.68%
YTD
-1.3%
1 Year
+24.3%
3Y CAGR
+4.3%
5Y CAGR
-9.9%
10Y CAGR
-5.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AGNC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.9x
vs 7.1x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+42.6%
vs +27.7% median
+54% above peer median
Net Margin
24.2%
vs 22.5% median
+8% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGN AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | $9.7B | 6.9x | +42.6% | 24.2% | Hold | +3.2% |
NLY NLY Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | $16.2B | 7.5x | -4.3% | 30.3% | Buy | +8.7% |
TWO TWO Two Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | 11.9x | +27.7% | -44.8% | Hold | +14.3% |
EAR EARN Ellington Credit Company | $182M | 4.6x | -5.8% | — | Hold | +23.7% |
ARR ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $2.2B | 5.7x | +34.5% | 24.2% | Hold | +4.7% |
MFA MFA MFA Financial, Inc. | $997M | 7.1x | +39.3% | 20.7% | Hold | +4.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AGNC Dividend and Capital Return
AGNC returns 14.7% total yield, led by a 14.73% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
14.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
14.73%
Payout Ratio
1.4%
How AGNC Splits Its Return
Div 14.73%
Dividend 14.73%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.58
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Monthly
12 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
897M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.44 | 0.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.1% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.5% |
| 2022 | $1.44 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 16.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsAGNC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $11, implying +3.2% from the current price of $11.
02What is the AGNC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AGNC is $11 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $12 (+11.2% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (-7.3%). The base case model target is $23.
03Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) stock overvalued in 2026?
AGNC trades at 6.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AGNC in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate and Spread Risk — AGNC is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which can significantly impact the value of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and hedging instruments. (2) Leverage — AGNC employs significant leverage, borrowing against a large portion of its assets, which amplifies risks related to borrowing costs and asset values. (3) Geopolitical and Market Events — Geopolitical events, such as the war with Iran, can disrupt markets and negatively affect AGNC's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AGNC Investment Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AGNC will report consensus revenue of $4.9B (+42.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.46 (+84.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.0B in revenue.
06When does AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AGNC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does AGNC Investment Corp. generate?
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) generated $604M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.5%. AGNC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (14.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).