Upside case
Bull case
$571-22.7%
The bull case prices AGX at 47x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Argan, Inc. (AGX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
7
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 7 covering AGX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$559
-24.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$273 – $571
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
61.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
AGX price targets
Three scenarios for where AGX stock could go
Current
~$739
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $739
Bear
$273
Base
$434
Bull
$571
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$434-41.3%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$273-63.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 39x multiple contraction could push AGX down roughly 63% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Argan, Inc.
AGX · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionJanuary year-end
Argan is a specialized engineering and construction firm that builds power plants and renewable energy facilities. It generates revenue primarily from power industry services — engineering, procurement, and construction contracts for biomass, wind, and solar projects — with additional income from industrial fabrication and telecommunications infrastructure work. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in complex power generation projects and its established relationships with independent power producers and utilities.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$161M
Net Margin
15.5%
AGX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.50/$1.99
Revenue
$238M/$243M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.17/$2.05
Revenue
$251M/$264M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.47/$1.99
Revenue
$262M/$255M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.24/$2.31
Revenue
$291M/$256M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.50/$1.99 | +25.6% | $238M/$243M | -2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.17/$2.05 | +5.9% | $251M/$264M | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.47/$1.99 | +74.4% | $262M/$255M | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.24/$2.31 | +40.3% | $291M/$256M | +13.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.2B
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+13.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.90
-12.9% YoY
FY2
$9.64
-2.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$487M
FCF Margin: 46.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AGX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AGX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $924M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Power Industry Services
81.9%
+9.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U [S]
90.2%
+8.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Power Industry Services is the largest disclosed segment at 81.9% of FY 2026 revenue, up 9.2% YoY.
U [S] is the largest reported region at 90.2%, up 8.8% YoY.
AGX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $666 — implies -9.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AGX
75.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+211% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AGX
75.9x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+197% premium
vs AGX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
75.9x
vs
5Y Average
21.7x
+249% premium
Forward PE
61.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+225%
Industrials
21.2x
+189%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
75.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+211%
Industrials
25.6x
+197%
5Y Avg
21.7x
+249%
PEG Ratio
1.68x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1%
Industrials
1.65x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
73.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+381%
Industrials
13.9x
+427%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+381%
Price/FCF
25.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+22%
Industrials
20.0x
+26%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+98%
Price/Sales
11.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+255%
Industrials
1.6x
+602%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+407%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
S&P 500
1.91%
-88%
Industrials
1.21%
-81%
5Y Avg
1.81%
-87%
| Metric | AGX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AGX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 61.1x | 18.8x+225% | 21.2x+189% | — |
| Trailing PE | 75.9x | 24.4x+211% | 25.6x+197% | 21.7x+249% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.68x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 73.2x | 15.2x+381% | 13.9x+427% | 15.2x+381% |
| Price/FCF | 25.2x | 20.7x+22% | 20.0x+26% | 12.7x+98% |
| Price/Sales | 11.0x | 3.1x+255% | 1.6x+602% | 2.2x+407% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.23% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.81% |
AGX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAGX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AGX generates $487M in free cash flow at a 46.7% margin — 59.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$487M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
46.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
59.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$339M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$333M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
14M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAGX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Earnings Uncertainty
The company's projected EPS has a confidence score of only 53/100, indicating uncertainty in revenue trajectory and margin path.
High Risk
Operational Risks
Argan disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, suggesting significant operational and financial challenges.
Lower
Market Position
Despite a strong composite score of 76.3/100, the company's market cap of $4.2B ranks it #211, indicating potential competitive pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AGX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Argan, Inc. reported strong revenue, earnings, and cash flow, with consistent growth in sales and net income year-over-year.
Experienced leadership
The company's experienced leadership enhances acquired businesses and positions them for sustained growth.
Bullish analyst coverage
Kroker Equity Research published a bullish thesis on Argan, Inc., highlighting its potential for investment growth.
High trailing P/E ratio
Argan's trailing P/E ratio of 42.17 indicates strong investor confidence and growth expectations.
Diverse argan oil applications
Argan oil's versatility in culinary, skincare, and health applications supports demand and market potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AGX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$738.85
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$193.82
+281.2% from the low
52-Week High
$778.00
-5.0% from the high
1 Month
+11.15%
3 Month
+57.27%
YTD
+126.7%
1 Year
+258.3%
3Y CAGR
+164.3%
5Y CAGR
+74.3%
10Y CAGR
+33.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AGX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
61.1x
vs 40.3x median
+52% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
vs +8.8% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
15.5%
vs 3.7% median
+317% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGX AGX Argan, Inc. | $10.4B | 61.1x | +10.6% | 15.5% | Buy | -24.3% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.2B | 40.3x | +8.8% | 3.7% | Hold | -10.5% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $105.4B | 50.2x | +13.2% | 3.7% | Buy | -4.0% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $29.9B | 43.0x | +11.4% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.8% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 20.9x | +7.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +50.8% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 21.6x | +8.1% | 8.2% | Buy | +32.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AGX Dividend and Capital Return
AGX returns 0.3% total yield, led by a 0.23% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
Payout Ratio
17.6%
How AGX Splits Its Return
Div 0.23%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.23%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
17.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-12.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10M
Estimated Shares Retired
13.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
14M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.50 | — | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +27.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $1.27 | +21.4% | 2.1% | 4.5% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | +5.0% | 12.3% | 14.9% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | +33.3% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsAGX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Argan, Inc. (AGX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $559, implying -24.3% from the current price of $739. The bear case scenario is $273 and the bull case is $571.
02What is the AGX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AGX is $559 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $600 (-18.8% from today), and the low-end target is $518 (-29.9%). The base case model target is $434.
03Is Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock overvalued in 2026?
AGX trades at 61.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AGX in 2026 are: (1) Operational Risks — Argan disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, suggesting significant operational and financial challenges. (2) Earnings Uncertainty — The company's projected EPS has a confidence score of only 53/100, indicating uncertainty in revenue trajectory and margin path. (3) Market Position — Despite a strong composite score of 76. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Argan, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AGX will report consensus revenue of $1.2B (+10.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.90 (-12.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does Argan, Inc. (AGX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AGX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Argan, Inc. generate?
Argan, Inc. (AGX) generated $487M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 46.7%. AGX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($10M TTM).