Upside case
Bull case
$1064+54.2%
AGX would need investors to value it at roughly 96x earnings — about 34x more generous than today's 63x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Argan, Inc. (AGX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
7
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 7 covering AGX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$421
-39.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1064
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
62.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.6B
AGX price targets
Three scenarios for where AGX stock could go
Current
~$690
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $690
Base
$690
Bull
$1064
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$690+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AGX — at roughly 63x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Argan, Inc.
AGX · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionJanuary year-end
Argan is a specialized engineering and construction firm that builds power plants and renewable energy facilities. It generates revenue primarily from power industry services — engineering, procurement, and construction contracts for biomass, wind, and solar projects — with additional income from industrial fabrication and telecommunications infrastructure work. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in complex power generation projects and its established relationships with independent power producers and utilities.
Market Cap
$9.6B
Revenue TTM
$915M
Net Income TTM
$120M
Net Margin
13.1%
AGX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.60/$1.09
Revenue
$194M/$194M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.50/$1.99
Revenue
$238M/$243M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.17/$2.05
Revenue
$251M/$264M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.47/$1.99
Revenue
$262M/$255M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.60/$1.09 | +46.8% | $194M/$194M | -0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.50/$1.99 | +25.6% | $238M/$243M | -2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.17/$2.05 | +5.9% | $251M/$264M | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.47/$1.99 | +74.4% | $262M/$255M | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.3B
+37.9% YoY
FY2
$1.7B
+35.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.23
+32.6% YoY
FY2
$14.70
+30.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$283M
FCF Margin: 30.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AGX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AGX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $874M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Power Industry Services
79.3%
+66.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U [S]
89.6%
+134.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Power Industry Services is the largest disclosed segment at 79.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 66.5% YoY.
U [S] is the largest reported region at 89.6%, up 134.3% YoY.
AGX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $317 — implies -54.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
54.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AGX
112.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+346% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AGX
112.2x
vs
Industrials
25.5x
+339% premium
vs AGX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
112.2x
vs
5Y Average
20.3x
+452% premium
Forward PE
62.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+227%
Industrials
20.6x
+203%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
112.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+346%
Industrials
25.5x
+339%
5Y Avg
20.3x
+452%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Industrials
1.56x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
100.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+555%
Industrials
13.8x
+630%
5Y Avg
11.3x
+792%
Price/FCF
59.5x
S&P 500
21.4x
+178%
Industrials
20.7x
+187%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+454%
Price/Sales
11.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+255%
Industrials
1.6x
+594%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+646%
Dividend Yield
0.19%
S&P 500
1.90%
-90%
Industrials
1.24%
-85%
5Y Avg
3.09%
-94%
| Metric | AGX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AGX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 62.5x | 19.1x+227% | 20.6x+203% | — |
| Trailing PE | 112.2x | 25.1x+346% | 25.5x+339% | 20.3x+452% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 1.56x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 100.5x | 15.3x+555% | 13.8x+630% | 11.3x+792% |
| Price/FCF | 59.5x | 21.4x+178% | 20.7x+187% | 10.7x+454% |
| Price/Sales | 11.0x | 3.1x+255% | 1.6x+594% | 1.5x+646% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.19% | 1.90% | 1.24% | 3.09% |
AGX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAGX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AGX generates $283M in free cash flow at a 30.9% margin — 43.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$915M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$283M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
43.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$145M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$143M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.31
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
21.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
14M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAGX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Project Execution Risks
Argan is exposed to significant risk of cost overruns on its fixed-price contracts, which could lead to substantial financial losses. This risk is critical as it directly impacts the company's profitability and cash flow.
High Risk
Dependence on New Projects
The company's growth is heavily reliant on securing new large-scale projects. A slowdown in project awards could severely impact Argan's future performance and revenue generation.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of Argan's revenue comes from a limited number of customers. This concentration increases the risk of financial instability if any of these key relationships are jeopardized.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
AGX is trading at a premium valuation compared to its historical averages and industry peers, making it susceptible to sharp declines if growth expectations are not met. Analysts have indicated that the fair value estimate is significantly lower than the current market price.
Medium
Share Price Volatility
AGX's share price has experienced notable volatility, particularly over the past three months, compared to the broader US market. This volatility can lead to investor uncertainty and potential financial losses.
Lower
Analyst Disagreement
While the consensus rating for AGX is generally positive, there is a notable range of price targets among analysts. This disagreement indicates uncertainty regarding the stock's future prospects and could affect investor confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AGX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Demand and Backlog
Argan has a significant project backlog, reported at $2.9 billion in FY2026, with strong demand for large-scale power projects. This backlog is supported by factors such as the rapid growth in AI and data centers, the electrification of everything, and the need to replace aging power facilities.
Strategic Positioning
The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the multi-year buildout of gas power plants in the US, supported by government investment and a strong balance sheet. Argan also has indirect exposure to the AI data center boom through its construction of gas plants.
Financial Strength
Argan has demonstrated solid financials, with low debt and consistent profitability. In fiscal year 2026, revenue increased by 8.06% to $944.61 million, and earnings saw a substantial increase of 61.22%.
Project Execution and Margin Expansion
Argan has shown strong execution in project management, leading to sustained strong margins and bottom-line expansion. The company has achieved gross margins reaching 19.0% and EBITDA margins hitting 15.6% in Q1 FY2026.
Dividend Growth
Argan has a history of increasing its dividend, which can attract investors seeking income.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AGX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$690.00
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$164.00
+320.7% from the low
52-Week High
$742.30
-7.0% from the high
1 Month
+19.59%
3 Month
+86.49%
YTD
+111.7%
1 Year
+311.0%
3Y CAGR
+158.0%
5Y CAGR
+68.8%
10Y CAGR
+35.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AGX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
62.5x
vs 44.0x median
+42% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+37.9%
vs +14.3% median
+165% above peer median
Net Margin
13.1%
vs 3.7% median
+253% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGX AGX Argan, Inc. | $9.6B | 62.5x | +37.9% | 13.1% | Buy | -39.0% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $6.7B | 44.0x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -15.3% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $112.7B | 57.4x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -13.8% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $32.5B | 48.6x | +14.3% | 3.0% | Buy | -19.9% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.9B | 18.1x | +17.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +48.7% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.1B | 18.1x | +8.0% | 8.2% | Buy | +57.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AGX Dividend and Capital Return
AGX returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.19% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.19%
Payout Ratio
21.4%
How AGX Splits Its Return
Div 0.19%
Dividend 0.19%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.31
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
17.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-12.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2M
Estimated Shares Retired
2.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
14M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +27.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $1.27 | +21.4% | 2.1% | 4.5% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | +5.0% | 12.3% | 14.9% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | +33.3% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsAGX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Argan, Inc. (AGX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $421, implying -39.0% from the current price of $690.
02What is the AGX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AGX is $421 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $518 (-24.9% from today), and the low-end target is $369 (-46.5%). The base case model target is $690.
03Is Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock overvalued in 2026?
AGX trades at 62.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Argan, Inc. (AGX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AGX in 2026 are: (1) Project Execution Risks — Argan is exposed to significant risk of cost overruns on its fixed-price contracts, which could lead to substantial financial losses. (2) Dependence on New Projects — The company's growth is heavily reliant on securing new large-scale projects. (3) Customer Concentration — A significant portion of Argan's revenue comes from a limited number of customers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Argan, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AGX will report consensus revenue of $1.3B (+37.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.23 (+32.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.7B in revenue.
06When does Argan, Inc. (AGX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AGX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Argan, Inc. generate?
Argan, Inc. (AGX) generated $283M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.9%. AGX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2M TTM).