Upside case
Bull case
$740+70.8%
MTZ would need investors to value it at roughly 87x earnings — about 36x more generous than today's 51x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
31 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering MTZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$330
-23.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$89 – $740
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
51.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.2B
MTZ price targets
Three scenarios for where MTZ stock could go
Current
~$433
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $433
Bear
$89
Base
$634
Bull
$740
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$634+46.4%
At 75x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$89-79.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 41x multiple contraction could push MTZ down roughly 79% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MasTec, Inc.
MTZ · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
MasTec is an infrastructure construction company that builds and maintains critical systems for communications, energy, and utilities across North America. It generates revenue primarily through large-scale construction contracts across five segments—Communications (~40%), Clean Energy and Infrastructure (~25%), Oil and Gas (~15%), Power Delivery (~15%), and Other (~5%)—with project-based billing for engineering, installation, and maintenance services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified expertise across multiple infrastructure sectors and its established relationships with major utility and telecom clients, creating barriers to entry for smaller competitors.
Market Cap
$34.2B
Revenue TTM
$15.3B
Net Income TTM
$459M
Net Margin
3.0%
MTZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.49/$1.41
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.48/$2.32
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.07/$1.95
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.39/$0.98
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.49/$1.41 | +5.7% | $3.5B/$3.7B | -5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.48/$2.32 | +6.9% | $4.0B/$3.9B | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.07/$1.95 | +6.2% | $3.9B/$3.7B | +6.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.39/$0.98 | +41.8% | $3.8B/$3.5B | +10.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.5B
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$20.0B
+14.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.77
+16.3% YoY
FY2
$7.42
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$179M
FCF Margin: 1.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.98
Expected Revenue
$3.5B
MTZ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MTZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Clean Energy and Infrastructure
46.2%
+14.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Clean Energy and Infrastructure is the largest disclosed segment at 46.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.8% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MTZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $198 — implies -52.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
52.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MTZ
85.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+239% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MTZ
85.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+230% premium
vs MTZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
85.5x
vs
5Y Average
43.2x
+98% premium
Forward PE
51.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+168%
Industrials
20.8x
+145%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
85.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+239%
Industrials
25.9x
+230%
5Y Avg
43.2x
+98%
PEG Ratio
28.78x
S&P 500
1.75x
+1549%
Industrials
1.59x
+1713%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+122%
Industrials
13.9x
+144%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+145%
Price/FCF
119.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+460%
Industrials
20.6x
+479%
5Y Avg
33.4x
+258%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Industrials
1.6x
+50%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+193%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MTZ | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MTZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 51.1x | 19.1x+168% | 20.8x+145% | — |
| Trailing PE | 85.5x | 25.2x+239% | 25.9x+230% | 43.2x+98% |
| PEG Ratio | 28.78x | 1.75x+1549% | 1.59x+1713% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.9x | 15.3x+122% | 13.9x+144% | 13.8x+145% |
| Price/FCF | 119.5x | 21.3x+460% | 20.6x+479% | 33.4x+258% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 1.6x+50% | 0.8x+193% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | — |
MTZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMTZ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for MTZ are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.82
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$179M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$396M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
13.5× FCF
~13.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$77M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
79M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMTZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Load
MasTec carries a significant amount of debt, which could negatively impact its financial condition, operations, and access to capital markets. Restrictive covenants in its debt agreements may also limit strategic transactions and flexibility.
Medium
CE&I Segment Margins
The Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment’s margins lag behind industry averages, raising concerns about profitability and competitiveness in this growth area. Lower margins could compress overall earnings and reduce return on invested capital.
Medium
Bonding Capacity
An interruption or reduction in bonding capacity could prevent MasTec from competing for or undertaking projects that require bonding. Loss of bonding ability would limit project acquisition and revenue generation.
Medium
Acquisition Integration
MasTec’s strategy of acquisitions and strategic investments carries integration risks. Unsuccessful integration could adversely affect operating results, cash flows, and shareholder value.
Lower
Shareholder Dilution
Future sales of common stock or other equity securities could depress the market price and dilute existing shareholders’ ownership interests. The company is not restricted from issuing additional shares, increasing dilution risk.
Lower
Stock Market Volatility
The stock market can experience significant volatility unrelated to MasTec’s operating performance. Such volatility can lead to a loss of investment for shareholders and impact the stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MTZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Backlog & Revenue Visibility
MasTec has achieved a record backlog, especially in its Clean Energy and Infrastructure and Pipeline Infrastructure segments. This strong order book provides significant revenue visibility and is expected to drive sustained growth.
Infrastructure Spending Tailwinds
The company is well-positioned to benefit from major infrastructure spending trends, including the demand for data centers driven by AI, electrification, and the reshoring of critical manufacturing. These macro‑drivers are expected to support continued project pipeline growth.
Strong Financial Performance
MasTec has reported double‑digit revenue increases in recent quarters and full years, and has exceeded earnings expectations. The company also posted significant year‑over‑year growth in EPS and Adjusted EBITDA.
Growth in Clean Energy & Communications
The Clean Energy and Infrastructure, and Communications segments are experiencing strong demand and are contributing significantly to revenue growth. This sector expansion underpins the company’s top‑line momentum.
Operational Efficiency & Margin Expansion
MasTec is focused on operational efficiency initiatives and strategic scaling efforts. These initiatives are expected to drive margin expansion and long‑term earnings upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MTZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$433.28
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$141.12
+207.0% from the low
52-Week High
$441.43
-1.8% from the high
1 Month
+28.47%
3 Month
+67.19%
YTD
+90.3%
1 Year
+199.6%
3Y CAGR
+70.1%
5Y CAGR
+31.7%
10Y CAGR
+34.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MTZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
51.1x
vs 32.5x median
+57% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.3%
vs +14.9% median
-4% below peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 3.7% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $34.2B | 51.1x | +14.3% | 3.0% | Buy | -23.8% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $117.8B | 60.0x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -17.6% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.1B | 18.4x | +8.0% | 7.7% | Buy | +55.2% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.1B | 46.8x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -20.4% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 16.9x | +17.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +58.5% |
DY DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | $13.3B | 32.5x | +17.7% | 5.8% | Buy | -5.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MTZ Dividend and Capital Return
MTZ returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$77M
Estimated Shares Retired
178.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
79M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1982 | $0.09 | 0.0% |
| 1981 | $0.09 | +11.1% |
| 1980 | $0.08 | +12.5% |
| 1979 | $0.07 | +14.3% |
| 1978 | $0.06 | +16.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsMTZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $330, implying -23.8% from the current price of $433. The bear case scenario is $89 and the bull case is $740.
02What is the MTZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MTZ is $330 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $425 (-1.9% from today), and the low-end target is $260 (-40.0%). The base case model target is $634.
03Is MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
MTZ trades at 51.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MTZ in 2026 are: (1) Debt Load — MasTec carries a significant amount of debt, which could negatively impact its financial condition, operations, and access to capital markets. (2) CE&I Segment Margins — The Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment’s margins lag behind industry averages, raising concerns about profitability and competitiveness in this growth area. (3) Bonding Capacity — An interruption or reduction in bonding capacity could prevent MasTec from competing for or undertaking projects that require bonding. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MasTec, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MTZ will report consensus revenue of $17.5B (+14.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.77 (+16.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.0B in revenue.
06When does MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) report its next earnings?
MasTec, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.98 and revenue of $3.5B. Over recent quarters, MTZ has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MasTec, Inc. generate?
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) generated $179M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.2%. MTZ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($77M TTM).