Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AHR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering AHR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
+14.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
66.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
AHR price targets
Three scenarios for where AHR stock could go
Current
~$50
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
AHR · NYSEReal EstateREIT - Healthcare FacilitiesDecember year-end
American Healthcare REIT is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates a diversified portfolio of healthcare properties including medical office buildings, senior housing facilities, and hospitals. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from its healthcare real estate portfolio — with senior housing and medical office buildings being its largest segments — supplemented by management fees from operating certain facilities. The company's competitive advantage lies in its fully integrated management platform with deep industry expertise and long-term relationships in the healthcare real estate sector.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.3B
Net Income TTM
$70M
Net Margin
3.1%
AHR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
0%Mixed
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
44%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-110.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.04/$0.37
Revenue
$541M/$541M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.06/$0.40
Revenue
$543M/$553M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.33/$0.42
Revenue
$573M/$615M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.06/$0.15
Revenue
$604M/$609M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.04/$0.37 | -110.8% | $541M/$541M | -0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.06/$0.40 | -85.0% | $543M/$553M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.33/$0.42 | -21.4% | $573M/$615M | -6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.06/$0.15 | -61.3% | $604M/$609M | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.5B
+14.8% YoY
FY2
$2.9B
+13.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.14
-16.1% YoY
FY2
$0.06
-60.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$225M
FCF Margin: 10.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.16
Expected Revenue
$668M
AHR beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AHR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Resident Fees and Services
100.0%
+11.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.7%
+9.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Resident Fees and Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.7%, up 9.2% YoY.
AHR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $30 — implies -39.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
39.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AHR
118.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+370% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
AHR
118.1x
vs
Real Estate
24.2x
+387% premium
vs AHR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
118.1x
vs
5Y Average
112.0x
+5% premium
Forward PE
66.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+245%
Real Estate
26.6x
+148%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
118.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+370%
Real Estate
24.2x
+387%
5Y Avg
112.0x
+5%
PEG Ratio
1.77x
S&P 500
1.70x
+5%
Real Estate
1.26x
+41%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
30.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+102%
Real Estate
16.8x
+84%
5Y Avg
20.8x
+49%
Price/FCF
57.4x
S&P 500
21.4x
+168%
Real Estate
15.6x
+267%
5Y Avg
45.7x
+25%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+37%
Real Estate
3.0x
+41%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+60%
Dividend Yield
1.98%
S&P 500
1.90%
+4%
Real Estate
4.65%
-58%
5Y Avg
2.67%
-26%
| Metric | AHR | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg AHR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 66.0x | 19.1x+245% | 26.6x+148% | — |
| Trailing PE | 118.1x | 25.1x+370% | 24.2x+387% | 112.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.77x | 1.70x | 1.26x+41% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.9x | 15.3x+102% | 16.8x+84% | 20.8x+49% |
| Price/FCF | 57.4x | 21.4x+168% | 15.6x+267% | 45.7x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+37% | 3.0x+41% | 2.6x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.98% | 1.90% | 4.65% | 2.67% |
AHR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAHR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AHR pays 2.0% total shareholder yield with 7.5% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.42
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
7.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$115M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
6.5× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$238000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.98
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
234.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
192M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageAHR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
UNITED STATES exposure
UNITED STATES represents 99.7% of disclosed revenue and changed 9.2% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Resident Fees and Services dependence
Resident Fees and Services contributes 100.0% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 11.2%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
AHR trades at 118.1x trailing earnings versus 25.1x for the S&P 500 and 24.2x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $2.5B in revenue (14.8% growth) and $0.14 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $225M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield, and a 2.0% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AHR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 15.2% gross margin, 7.5% operating margin, and $225M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Resident Fees and Services still matters
Resident Fees and Services accounts for 100.0% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 11.2%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $57, or 14.4% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $2.5B in forward revenue and $0.14 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 2.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AHR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$49.60
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.15
+54.3% from the low
52-Week High
$54.67
-9.3% from the high
1 Month
+4.20%
3 Month
+0.45%
YTD
+5.0%
1 Year
+51.9%
3Y CAGR
+55.4%
5Y CAGR
+30.3%
10Y CAGR
+14.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AHR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
66.0x
vs 89.7x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.8%
vs +7.8% median
+90% above peer median
Net Margin
3.1%
vs 7.7% median
-60% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AHR AHR American Healthcare REIT, Inc. | $9.5B | 66.0x | +14.8% | 3.1% | Buy | +14.4% |
WEL WELL Welltower Inc. | $149.2B | 78.4x | +23.6% | 12.3% | Buy | +6.3% |
VTR VTR Ventas, Inc. | $41.1B | 118.0x | +13.6% | 4.2% | Buy | +4.9% |
HR HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | $7.0B | — | +0.7% | -17.5% | Hold | -3.3% |
DOC DOC Healthpeak Properties, Inc. | $13.7B | 100.9x | +6.6% | 7.7% | Buy | -9.2% |
OHI OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | $13.7B | 23.4x | +7.8% | 51.0% | Hold | +6.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AHR Dividend and Capital Return
AHR returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.98% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.98%
Payout Ratio
2.3%
How AHR Splits Its Return
Div 1.98%
Dividend 1.98%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.98
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
19.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$238000
Estimated Shares Retired
4.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
192M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | — | 0.0% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsAHR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying +14.4% from the current price of $50.
02What is the AHR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AHR is $57 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+21.0% from today), and the low-end target is $55 (+10.9%).
03Is American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) stock overvalued in 2026?
AHR trades at 66.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AHR in 2026 are: (1) UNITED STATES exposure — UNITED STATES represents 99. (2) Resident Fees and Services dependence — Resident Fees and Services contributes 100. (3) Valuation de-rating — AHR trades at 118. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American Healthcare REIT, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AHR will report consensus revenue of $2.5B (+14.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.14 (-16.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.9B in revenue.
06When does American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) report its next earnings?
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $668M. Over recent quarters, AHR has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does American Healthcare REIT, Inc. generate?
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) generated $225M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.0%. AHR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($238000 TTM).