Upside case
Bull case
$116+602.8%
DOC would need investors to value it at roughly 596x earnings — about 511x more generous than today's 85x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 40 covering DOC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
18
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$18
+8.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$31 – $116
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
84.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.5B
DOC price targets
Three scenarios for where DOC stock could go
Current
~$17
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $17
Bear
$31
Base
$17
Bull
$116
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$17+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing DOC — at roughly 85x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$31+87.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push DOC down roughly 88% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
DOC · NYSEReal EstateREIT - Healthcare FacilitiesDecember year-end
Healthpeak Properties is a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops specialized properties for life sciences, medical offices, and senior housing. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio — with life sciences (about 50%) and medical offices (about 40%) being the largest segments — supplemented by development fees and property sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in healthcare real estate and its high-quality, mission-critical properties that serve essential healthcare needs.
Market Cap
$11.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$222M
Net Margin
7.7%
DOC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+70.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.46/$0.46
Revenue
$703M/$689M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.46/$0.46
Revenue
$694M/$702M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.46/$0.45
Revenue
$706M/$685M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.45
Revenue
$705M/$692M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.46/$0.46 | +0.0% | $703M/$689M | +2.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.46/$0.46 | +0.0% | $694M/$702M | -1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.46/$0.45 | +2.2% | $706M/$685M | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47/$0.45 | +4.4% | $705M/$692M | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$3.2B
+7.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.17
+65.8% YoY
FY2
$0.22
+28.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$893M
FCF Margin: 31.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DOC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DOC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Outpatient Medical Buildings
46.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Outpatient Medical Buildings
46.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Outpatient Medical Buildings is the largest disclosed segment at 46.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Outpatient Medical Buildings is the largest reported region at 46.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DOC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $24 — implies +48.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
48.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DOC
165.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+558% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
DOC
165.1x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+584% premium
vs DOC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
165.1x
vs
5Y Average
63.7x
+159% premium
Forward PE
84.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+344%
Real Estate
26.4x
+221%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
165.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+558%
Real Estate
24.1x
+584%
5Y Avg
63.7x
+159%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Real Estate
16.7x
-20%
5Y Avg
17.4x
-23%
Price/FCF
10.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-53%
Real Estate
15.4x
-35%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-32%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+30%
Real Estate
3.0x
+37%
5Y Avg
6.2x
-34%
Dividend Yield
7.39%
S&P 500
1.87%
+296%
Real Estate
4.66%
+59%
5Y Avg
5.52%
+34%
| Metric | DOC | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg DOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 84.8x | 19.1x+344% | 26.4x+221% | — |
| Trailing PE | 165.1x | 25.1x+558% | 24.1x+584% | 63.7x+159% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3x | 15.2x-12% | 16.7x-20% | 17.4x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 10.0x | 21.1x-53% | 15.4x-35% | 14.7x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+30% | 3.0x+37% | 6.2x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.39% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 5.52% |
DOC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDOC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
DOC pays 8.2% total shareholder yield with 14.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.32
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
14.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$538M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.9B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
11.1× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.2%
Dividend
7.4%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$97M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
1190.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
695M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageDOC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Tenant credit risk
Healthpeak Properties faces potential increases in lab tenant credit risk, which could adversely affect its financial performance. Analysts have expressed concerns about the anticipated challenges in lab occupancy due to slow capital raising projected for the latter half of 2025.
High Risk
Leasing performance
Weak leasing performance has led to revised forecasts for Healthpeak Properties' financial outlook. The anticipated challenges in lab occupancy may further exacerbate these issues, impacting revenue generation.
Medium
High dividend payout ratio
Healthpeak Properties pays a dividend yield of approximately 7.43%, placing it in the top 25% of dividend-paying stocks. However, the high dividend payout ratio raises questions about its sustainability, despite future estimates suggesting improvement.
Medium
Market performance volatility
The stock has experienced negative returns over the past week, month, and three months, hitting a new 1-year low following an analyst downgrade. This volatility may deter potential investors and affect market confidence.
Lower
High P/E ratio
Healthpeak Properties' stock is trading at a notably high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio compared to the market average. While some analyses suggest the stock may be undervalued, this high valuation could pose risks if earnings do not improve.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DOC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust and Diversified Portfolio
Healthpeak Properties owns approximately 700 properties, focusing on medical office buildings and life science assets. This diversification provides stability through various market cycles.
Growth Through Development
The company has new development projects totaling $148 million, with around 80% pre-leased. These projects are expected to yield mid-single-digit returns upon stabilization, indicating potential for solid revenue growth.
Strategic Capital Recycling
Healthpeak plans to sell over $1 billion in outpatient assets to reinvest in higher-return lab and development opportunities. This strategy aims to enhance overall portfolio returns.
Supportive Demographics and Market Position
The company benefits from favorable demographics and limited new supply in certain areas. Its strategic positioning in key innovation markets is expected to sustain revenue growth and rental income.
Potential for AI-Driven Efficiency
There is an assumption that AI-driven efficiency gains, combined with internalized property management, could lift margins and earnings beyond current analyst expectations.
Undervaluation
Some analyses suggest the stock may be undervalued, with discounted cash flow models indicating a significant discount to intrinsic value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DOC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.51
52W Range Position
20%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.70
+5.2% from the low
52-Week High
$19.68
-16.1% from the high
1 Month
-0.96%
3 Month
-1.02%
YTD
+1.9%
1 Year
-6.1%
3Y CAGR
-8.4%
5Y CAGR
-13.0%
10Y CAGR
-7.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DOC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
84.8x
vs 78.9x median
+7% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +7.8% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
7.7%
vs 12.3% median
-37% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DOC DOC Healthpeak Properties, Inc. | $11.5B | 84.8x | +6.8% | 7.7% | Buy | +8.2% |
VTR VTR Ventas, Inc. | $41.3B | 118.3x | +13.6% | 4.2% | Buy | +4.6% |
WEL WELL Welltower Inc. | $150.1B | 78.9x | +23.6% | 12.3% | Buy | +5.7% |
HR HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | $6.9B | — | +0.7% | -17.5% | Hold | -3.0% |
OHI OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | $13.7B | 23.4x | +7.8% | 51.0% | Hold | +6.5% |
SAB SABR Sabre Corporation | $696M | — | +0.1% | 18.4% | Buy | +13.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DOC Dividend and Capital Return
DOC returns 8.2% total yield, led by a 7.39% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
7.39%
Payout Ratio
11.9%
How DOC Splits Its Return
Div 7.39%
Dividend 7.39%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-16.8%
5Y Div CAGR
-12.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Monthly
14 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$97M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
695M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.61 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.22 | -14.7% | 0.9% | 8.5% |
| 2024 | $1.43 | -32.5% | 1.4% | 7.2% |
| 2023 | $2.12 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.1% |
| 2022 | $2.12 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsDOC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $18, implying +8.2% from the current price of $17. The bear case scenario is $31 and the bull case is $116.
02What is the DOC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DOC is $18 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $21 (+27.2% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (+3.0%). The base case model target is $17.
03Is Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) stock overvalued in 2026?
DOC trades at 84.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DOC in 2026 are: (1) Tenant credit risk — Healthpeak Properties faces potential increases in lab tenant credit risk, which could adversely affect its financial performance. (2) Leasing performance — Weak leasing performance has led to revised forecasts for Healthpeak Properties' financial outlook. (3) High dividend payout ratio — Healthpeak Properties pays a dividend yield of approximately 7. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Healthpeak Properties, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DOC will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.17 (+65.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.2B in revenue.
06When does Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DOC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Healthpeak Properties, Inc. generate?
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) generated $893M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 31.1%. DOC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.4% yield) and share repurchases ($97M TTM).