Upside case
Bull case
$192+69.0%
AFL would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
32
analysts
9 bullish · 5 bearish · 32 covering AFL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
18
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$111
-2.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$78 – $192
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $58.4B
AFL price targets
Three scenarios for where AFL stock could go
Current
~$113
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $113
Bear
$78
Base
$124
Bull
$192
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$124+9.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AFL — at roughly 17x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$78-31.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push AFL down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aflac Incorporated
AFL · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - LifeDecember year-end
Aflac is a supplemental insurance provider offering health and life insurance products primarily through workplace payroll deduction. It generates revenue from insurance premiums, with roughly 70% coming from its Japan segment and 30% from its U.S. operations. The company's key advantage is its strong brand recognition and extensive distribution network through employer relationships.
Market Cap
$58.4B
Revenue TTM
$17.4B
Net Income TTM
$3.6B
Net Margin
21.0%
AFL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.78/$1.70
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.49/$1.77
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.57/$1.69
Revenue
$4.9B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.75/$1.79
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.78/$1.70 | +4.7% | $4.2B/$4.3B | -2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.49/$1.77 | +40.7% | $4.8B/$4.4B | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.57/$1.69 | -7.1% | $4.9B/$4.3B | +14.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.75/$1.79 | -2.2% | $4.3B/$4.2B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.5B
-5.1% YoY
FY2
$15.7B
-4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.25
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$7.46
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 14.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AFL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AFL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aflac Japan Member
53.4%
-3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Aflac Japan Member
57.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aflac Japan Member is the largest disclosed segment at 53.4% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.1% YoY.
Aflac Japan Member is the largest reported region at 57.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AFL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $83 — implies -26.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AFL
16.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
34% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AFL
16.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+24% premium
vs AFL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.6x
vs
5Y Average
11.4x
+46% premium
Forward PE
15.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-17%
Financial Services
10.5x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-34%
Financial Services
13.4x
+24%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+46%
PEG Ratio
33.11x
S&P 500
1.75x
+1797%
Financial Services
1.03x
+3129%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-28%
Financial Services
11.4x
-4%
5Y Avg
9.7x
+13%
Price/FCF
22.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+7%
Financial Services
10.6x
+115%
5Y Avg
15.9x
+43%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Financial Services
2.3x
+49%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+26%
Dividend Yield
1.99%
S&P 500
1.88%
+6%
Financial Services
2.68%
-26%
5Y Avg
2.03%
-2%
| Metric | AFL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.7x | 19.1x-17% | 10.5x+50% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.6x | 25.2x-34% | 13.4x+24% | 11.4x+46% |
| PEG Ratio | 33.11x | 1.75x+1797% | 1.03x+3129% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0x | 15.3x-28% | 11.4x | 9.7x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 22.9x | 21.3x | 10.6x+115% | 15.9x+43% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.3x+49% | 2.7x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.03% |
AFL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAFL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AFL posts 21.0% net margin with 13.1% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.85
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
13.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
6.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.25
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
515M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAFL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Margin Compression
Aflac’s net profit margin fell from 28.8% to 21.2% over the past year, compressing earnings and limiting dividend growth. This decline signals tighter underwriting and pricing pressures that could erode shareholder returns if not reversed.
High Risk
Market & Economic Conditions
The company’s performance is closely tied to the economic health of the U.S. and Japan. Currency swings, especially in the Japanese yen, and shifts in monetary policy can reduce consumer spending on insurance products, directly impacting revenue.
High Risk
Integrity Risks in Gambling
The AFL’s gambling revenue stream is vulnerable to integrity risks, with documented deficiencies in online oversight and the potential for inside‑information misuse. Rising concerns from regulators and bookmakers could threaten this income source and damage the league’s reputation.
Medium
Gambling Revenue Dependence
AFL derives a significant portion of its income from betting cuts on games. This reliance has attracted criticism from gambling reform advocates and raises concerns about long‑term revenue stability if betting volumes decline.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Alterations to insurance regulations in the U.S. and Japan could affect Aflac’s operations and profitability. Compliance costs or policy restrictions may limit product offerings and reduce margins.
Medium
Product Implementation & Sales
Challenges in launching new dental and vision products have slowed sales growth, while the anticipated launch of a cancer product in Japan remains uncertain in its near‑term impact. Delays could affect revenue forecasts and market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AFL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Foundation
Aflac’s market capitalization sits at approximately $55.19 billion, underscoring its solid position in the financial services sector. The company consistently converts nearly all operational cash flow into free cash flow, enabling substantial shareholder returns through buybacks and debt repayment.
Japan‑Focused Revenue Growth
About 70% of Aflac’s revenue comes from Japan, where new annualized premium sales grew 12% year‑over‑year. In the U.S., new sales rose 6%, supported by the introduction of a hybrid long‑term care rider.
Undervalued Relative to Peers
Aflac trades at a trailing P/E of 11.82 and a forward P/E of 15.95, below many peers, indicating potential undervaluation. The enterprise value to EBIT ratio further supports this view, while the company’s disciplined capital return strategy adds upside.
Strategic Product Innovation
The March 2026 launch of a hybrid long‑term care rider allows policyholders to access life coverage benefits during their lifetime for care needs, targeting the aging “Silver Tsunami” demographic and addressing rising long‑term care costs.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AFL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$113.40
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.95
+17.0% from the low
52-Week High
$119.32
-5.0% from the high
1 Month
+2.85%
3 Month
-3.20%
YTD
+2.9%
1 Year
+7.1%
3Y CAGR
+18.8%
5Y CAGR
+15.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AFL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.7x
vs 9.2x median
+72% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-5.1%
vs -1.3% median
-290% below peer median
Net Margin
21.0%
vs 4.9% median
+325% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AFL AFL Aflac Incorporated | $58.4B | 15.7x | -5.1% | 21.0% | Hold | -2.3% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
UNM UNM Unum Group | $13.0B | 9.2x | -1.3% | 5.9% | Hold | +22.1% |
GNW GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | $3.6B | 21.3x | -8.4% | 3.6% | Hold | — |
CNO CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $4.3B | 10.4x | +1.5% | 4.9% | Hold | +2.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AFL Dividend and Capital Return
AFL returns capital mainly through $3.5B/year in buybacks (6.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.99% dividend — combining for 8.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 41 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.0%
Dividend Yield
1.99%
Payout Ratio
32.9%
How AFL Splits Its Return
Div 1.99%
Buyback 6.0%
Dividend 1.99%Buybacks 6.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.25
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
41Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.2%
5Y Div CAGR
15.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
31M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
515M
At 6.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.61 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.32 | +16.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +19.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% |
| 2023 | $1.68 | +5.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +21.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsAFL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $111, implying -2.3% from the current price of $113. The bear case scenario is $78 and the bull case is $192.
02What is the AFL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AFL is $111 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+5.8% from today), and the low-end target is $99 (-12.7%). The base case model target is $124.
03Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock overvalued in 2026?
AFL trades at 15.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AFL in 2026 are: (1) Margin Compression — Aflac’s net profit margin fell from 28. (2) Market & Economic Conditions — The company’s performance is closely tied to the economic health of the U. (3) Integrity Risks in Gambling — The AFL’s gambling revenue stream is vulnerable to integrity risks, with documented deficiencies in online oversight and the potential for inside‑information misuse. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aflac Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AFL will report consensus revenue of $16.5B (-5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.25 (+5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.7B in revenue.
06When does Aflac Incorporated (AFL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AFL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Aflac Incorporated generate?
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.7%. AFL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($3.5B TTM).