Upside case
Bull case
$61+11.1%
AMRZ would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 2x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
8
analysts
6 bullish · 0 bearish · 8 covering AMRZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+21.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$29 – $61
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
8
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.6B
AMRZ price targets
Three scenarios for where AMRZ stock could go
Current
~$55
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $55
Bear
$29
Base
$47
Bull
$61
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$47-15.7%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$29-46.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push AMRZ down roughly 47% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amrize Ltd
AMRZ · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsDecember year-end
Amrize is a building materials company that manufactures and distributes construction products across North America. It generates revenue primarily through sales of cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete — with cement typically representing the largest segment at around 40-50% of total revenue. The company benefits from strategic plant locations near key markets — creating a logistics cost advantage — and operates at scale in a capital-intensive industry with high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$30.6B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
9.7%
AMRZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
20%Exceptional
5 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
40%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-17.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.06/$1.02
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.54/$0.65
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.16/$-0.13
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.16/$-0.12
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.06/$1.02 | +3.9% | $3.7B/$3.5B | +5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.54/$0.65 | -16.4% | $2.8B/$2.9B | -2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.16/$-0.13 | -18.7% | $2.8B/$2.9B | -2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.16/$-0.12 | -33.3% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.3B
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$13.0B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.37
+13.6% YoY
FY2
$2.59
+9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 11.1%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.98
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
AMRZ beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AMRZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Building Materials
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
77.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Building Materials is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 77.1%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AMRZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $84 — implies +51.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
51.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMRZ
25.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+6% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AMRZ
25.9x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+10% premium
vs AMRZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.9x
vs
5Y Average
25.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+5%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+6%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
25.3x
+2%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-19%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+11%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+2%
Price/FCF
21.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+4%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-26%
5Y Avg
21.1x
+2%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-16%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+38%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+2%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Basic Materials
1.41%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AMRZ | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AMRZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 18.8x | 14.9x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.9x | 24.4x | 23.6x | 25.3x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3x | 15.2x-19% | 11.0x+11% | 12.0x |
| Price/FCF | 21.5x | 20.7x | 29.0x-26% | 21.1x |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-16% | 1.9x+38% | 2.5x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.41% | — |
AMRZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMRZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AMRZ generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 11.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.0× FCF
~3.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
553M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMRZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Negative Earnings Performance
Amrize Ltd reported a negative EPS in Q1 2026, indicating poor financial performance.
Medium
Sector-Specific Risks
The Building Materials segment's reliance on aftermarket revenue and supply chain localization poses risks to AMRZ's fundamentals.
Medium
Value Trap Concerns
Questions arise whether AMRZ is a value trap given its sector's unique challenges and opportunities.
Lower
Market Positioning
Despite its efficient distribution network, AMRZ faces competition in becoming the partner of choice for professional builders.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMRZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Efficient distribution network
Amrize has over 1,000 sites and a highly efficient distribution network, enabling strong customer delivery capabilities.
Strong Q1 2026 earnings
Amrize's Q1 2026 earnings release indicates solid financial performance, supported by detailed reports and transcripts.
Comprehensive SEC filings
MarketBeat offers access to Amrize's complete SEC filing history, providing transparency and investor confidence.
Investor relations material
Amrize provides detailed investor relations materials, including earnings summaries and event transcripts, enhancing shareholder communication.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMRZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$55.35
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.12
+25.5% from the low
52-Week High
$65.94
-16.1% from the high
1 Month
+11.50%
3 Month
+1.28%
YTD
-0.1%
1 Year
+6.5%
3Y CAGR
+2.1%
5Y CAGR
+1.3%
10Y CAGR
+0.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMRZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 25.3x median
-22% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
vs +3.7% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
9.7%
vs 13.9% median
-30% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMR AMRZ Amrize Ltd | $30.6B | 19.7x | +3.4% | 9.7% | Buy | +21.6% |
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $39.3B | 32.8x | +3.7% | 13.9% | Buy | +6.5% |
MLM MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $36.7B | 31.9x | +6.2% | 38.7% | Buy | +12.4% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $7.0B | 17.4x | +3.7% | 18.4% | Buy | -2.8% |
CRH CRH CRH plc | $74.3B | 18.7x | -0.7% | 9.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
FYB FYBR Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. | $9.6B | — | +2.0% | -6.2% | Buy | -10.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMRZ Dividend and Capital Return
AMRZ does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
553M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.55 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsAMRZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 8 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +21.6% from the current price of $55. The bear case scenario is $29 and the bull case is $61.
02What is the AMRZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMRZ is $67 based on 8 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+35.5% from today), and the low-end target is $58 (+4.8%). The base case model target is $47.
03Is Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMRZ trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMRZ in 2026 are: (1) Negative Earnings Performance — Amrize Ltd reported a negative EPS in Q1 2026, indicating poor financial performance. (2) Sector-Specific Risks — The Building Materials segment's reliance on aftermarket revenue and supply chain localization poses risks to AMRZ's fundamentals. (3) Value Trap Concerns — Questions arise whether AMRZ is a value trap given its sector's unique challenges and opportunities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amrize Ltd's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMRZ will report consensus revenue of $12.3B (+3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.37 (+13.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.0B in revenue.
06When does Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) report its next earnings?
Amrize Ltd is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.98 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, AMRZ has beaten EPS estimates 20% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Amrize Ltd generate?
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.1%. AMRZ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).