Upside case
Bull case
$386+25.2%
AON would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
19 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering AON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$404
+31.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$110 – $386
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.0B
AON price targets
Three scenarios for where AON stock could go
Current
~$308
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $308
Bear
$110
Base
$391
Bull
$386
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$391+26.8%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$110-64.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push AON down roughly 64% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aon plc
AON · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - BrokersDecember year-end
Aon is a global professional services firm that provides risk management, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting solutions to clients worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through commercial risk brokerage (~50% of revenue), reinsurance brokerage (~20%), and health & benefits consulting (~30%), earning commissions and fees for placing insurance and advising on risk strategies. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive global scale, deep industry expertise, and data analytics capabilities that create significant switching costs for large multinational clients.
Market Cap
$66.0B
Revenue TTM
$17.5B
Net Income TTM
$3.9B
Net Margin
22.5%
AON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.49/$3.40
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.05/$2.91
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.85/$4.75
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.48/$6.37
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.49/$3.40 | +2.6% | $4.2B/$4.2B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.05/$2.91 | +4.8% | $4.0B/$4.0B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.85/$4.75 | +2.1% | $4.3B/$4.4B | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.48/$6.37 | +1.7% | $5.0B/$5.0B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.6B
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$20.4B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.53
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$21.58
+10.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.5B
FCF Margin: 20.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AON beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Risk Capital Segment
65.7%
+7.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
53.2%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Risk Capital Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 65.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 53.2%, up 8.0% YoY.
AON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $345 — implies +10.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
10.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AON
18.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AON
18.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+35% premium
vs AON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.1x
vs
5Y Average
30.3x
40% discount
Forward PE
16.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-15%
Financial Services
10.5x
+55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Financial Services
13.4x
+35%
5Y Avg
30.3x
-40%
PEG Ratio
1.20x
S&P 500
1.75x
-31%
Financial Services
1.03x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+0%
Financial Services
11.4x
+34%
5Y Avg
21.3x
-28%
Price/FCF
20.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-4%
Financial Services
10.6x
+93%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-17%
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+23%
Financial Services
2.3x
+71%
5Y Avg
4.9x
-21%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
S&P 500
1.88%
-50%
Financial Services
2.68%
-65%
5Y Avg
0.75%
+25%
| Metric | AON | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.2x | 19.1x-15% | 10.5x+55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.1x | 25.2x-28% | 13.4x+35% | 30.3x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.20x | 1.75x-31% | 1.03x+17% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 15.3x | 11.4x+34% | 21.3x-28% |
| Price/FCF | 20.5x | 21.3x | 10.6x+93% | 24.8x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+23% | 2.3x+71% | 4.9x-21% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.94% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.75% |
AON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAON Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AON posts 22.5% net margin with 44.2% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$18.30
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
44.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.3B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
44.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
214M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
Aon's long‑term debt reached $15.1 billion at the end of Q3, while cash and equivalents were only $1.1 billion. The debt‑to‑capital ratio of 65.1% exceeds the industry average of 49%, driving higher interest expense and compressing margin growth.
Medium
Margin Compression
Adjusted operating margin fell short of analyst expectations, signaling a potential decline in profitability. This shortfall could erode earnings growth even as overall performance improves.
Medium
Economic Downturn Risk
A weaker macro‑economy could reduce insurable risks and prompt adverse client behavior in key sectors such as financial services, construction, and private equity, potentially lowering underwriting volumes.
Medium
Acquisition Headwinds
The pending acquisition of NFP may create margin headwinds and operational integration challenges, potentially delaying expected synergies and affecting short‑term profitability.
Lower
Market & Industry Volatility
Fluctuations in market conditions and shifts within the insurance industry can impact Aon's future performance, adding uncertainty to revenue and earnings forecasts.
Lower
Insider Sell‑off
Insiders net sold $1.8 million of AON shares in the last three months, which could signal a lack of confidence in the stock’s short‑term prospects and may influence investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Industry Growth & Rising Demand
Aon's core market—risk management and insurance brokerage—is expanding as businesses seek more sophisticated coverage. Demand for essential services in this sector is accelerating, positioning Aon to capture a larger share of the growing market.
Revenue Growth Fueled by Acquisitions
The company has posted robust revenue increases, with recent results exceeding analyst expectations. Strategic acquisitions and targeted investments are driving both top‑line growth and operational efficiencies.
Strong Balance Sheet & Shareholder Returns
Aon maintains an excellent balance sheet and a solid financial profile. The firm offers a dividend yield while keeping a low payout ratio, allowing reinvestment into high‑return opportunities and generating strong cash flow.
Operational Strengths & Client Retention
New business growth, solid client retention, and organic revenue gains underpin Aon's performance. These operational drivers help sustain consistent revenue expansion and deepen client relationships.
Reinsurance & Insurance‑Linked Securities Growth
Aon's reinsurance segment, especially its insurance‑linked securities business, is experiencing strong growth. This niche area adds diversification and contributes to the company's overall revenue momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$308.22
52W Range Position
5%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$304.59
+1.2% from the low
52-Week High
$381.00
-19.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.50%
3 Month
-9.89%
YTD
-10.5%
1 Year
-13.9%
3Y CAGR
-2.5%
5Y CAGR
+3.7%
10Y CAGR
+11.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.2x
vs 12.9x median
+26% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.6%
vs +7.3% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
22.5%
vs 15.6% median
+44% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AON AON Aon plc | $66.0B | 16.2x | +6.6% | 22.5% | Buy | +31.2% |
MMC MMC Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | 16.9x | +7.3% | 15.6% | Hold | +18.8% |
WTW WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $23.8B | 12.9x | +2.3% | 16.8% | Buy | +34.1% |
AJG AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $50.6B | 14.9x | +19.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +39.3% |
BRO BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $19.3B | 12.5x | +18.4% | 17.9% | Hold | +56.5% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.7B | 10.1x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AON Dividend and Capital Return
AON returns capital mainly through $1.0B/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.94% dividend — combining for 2.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
Payout Ratio
17.0%
How AON Splits Its Return
Div 0.94%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.94%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.9%
5Y Div CAGR
10.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
214M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.91 | +10.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | $2.64 | +9.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.41 | +9.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $2.19 | +10.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsAON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aon plc (AON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aon plc (AON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $404, implying +31.2% from the current price of $308. The bear case scenario is $110 and the bull case is $386.
02What is the AON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AON is $404 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $443 (+43.7% from today), and the low-end target is $381 (+23.6%). The base case model target is $391.
03Is Aon plc (AON) stock overvalued in 2026?
AON trades at 16.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aon plc (AON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AON in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — Aon's long‑term debt reached $15. (2) Margin Compression — Adjusted operating margin fell short of analyst expectations, signaling a potential decline in profitability. (3) Economic Downturn Risk — A weaker macro‑economy could reduce insurable risks and prompt adverse client behavior in key sectors such as financial services, construction, and private equity, potentially lowering underwriting volumes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aon plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AON will report consensus revenue of $18.6B (+6.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.53 (+6.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.4B in revenue.
06When does Aon plc (AON) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AON is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Aon plc generate?
Aon plc (AON) generated $3.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.0%. AON returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).