Upside case
Bull case
$86+51.6%
BRO would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
30
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 30 covering BRO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
21
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$89
+56.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$48 – $86
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.3B
BRO price targets
Three scenarios for where BRO stock could go
Current
~$57
Confidence
79 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $57
Bear
$48
Base
$80
Bull
$86
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$80+42.2%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$48-15.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push BRO down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Brown & Brown, Inc.
BRO · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - BrokersDecember year-end
Brown & Brown is a large insurance brokerage and risk management firm that connects clients with insurance carriers through its network of agents and brokers. It generates revenue primarily from commissions and fees earned by placing insurance policies across its four main segments—Retail (~50% of revenue), National Programs (~20%), Wholesale Brokerage (~20%), and Services (~10%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its decentralized, entrepreneurial culture that empowers local offices while leveraging national scale, along with deep industry specialization across various niche insurance programs.
Market Cap
$19.3B
Revenue TTM
$6.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
17.9%
BRO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$0.99
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.05/$0.94
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.93/$0.91
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.39/$1.36
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$0.99 | +4.5% | $1.2B/$1.3B | -2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.05/$0.94 | +11.2% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.93/$0.91 | +2.8% | $1.6B/$1.6B | -2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.39/$1.36 | +2.2% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.6B
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$9.1B
+19.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.07
+20.1% YoY
FY2
$4.49
+10.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 23.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BRO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BRO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail
58.6%
+24.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.4%
+22.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail is the largest disclosed segment at 58.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 24.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.4%, up 22.2% YoY.
BRO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $82 — implies +42.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
42.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BRO
17.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
29% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BRO
17.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+34% premium
vs BRO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.9x
vs
5Y Average
27.2x
34% discount
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Financial Services
10.5x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-29%
Financial Services
13.4x
+34%
5Y Avg
27.2x
-34%
PEG Ratio
1.34x
S&P 500
1.75x
-23%
Financial Services
1.03x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-17%
Financial Services
11.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
18.1x
-30%
Price/FCF
13.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-35%
Financial Services
10.6x
+31%
5Y Avg
22.1x
-37%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Financial Services
2.3x
+44%
5Y Avg
5.2x
-38%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.88%
-42%
Financial Services
2.68%
-59%
5Y Avg
0.66%
+66%
| Metric | BRO | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 19.1x-34% | 10.5x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.9x | 25.2x-29% | 13.4x+34% | 27.2x-34% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.34x | 1.75x-23% | 1.03x+31% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7x | 15.3x-17% | 11.4x+11% | 18.1x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 13.9x | 21.3x-35% | 10.6x+31% | 22.1x-37% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.3x+44% | 5.2x-38% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.66% |
BRO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBRO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BRO posts 17.9% net margin with 9.3% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+33.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.39
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
9.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$100M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.62
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
18.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
340M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBRO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Insurance Pricing Cycle
Brown & Brown's earnings are closely linked to the insurance pricing cycle. A softening market with declining premium rates can significantly slow revenue growth, as commissions are typically a percentage of premiums.
High Risk
Integration Execution
As an acquisitive company, Brown & Brown faces substantial risks related to the successful integration of mergers and acquisitions. Disruptions, cultural mismatches, and producer turnover can adversely affect performance and lead to increased costs.
High Risk
Margin Compression
Rising costs in wages, producer compensation, and technology, combined with slowing revenue growth, can lead to significant margin compression for Brown & Brown. This could negatively impact profitability and overall financial health.
Medium
Organic Growth and Retention
Maintaining client retention and effective cross-selling are crucial for Brown & Brown's long-term growth. Increased competition or aggressive cost-cutting by clients could weaken retention and hinder organic growth.
Medium
Commission Pressure
Consolidation among insurance carriers may lead to demands for lower commissions or changes in distribution. This pressure could adversely affect Brown & Brown's revenue and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
Operating in a heavily regulated environment exposes Brown & Brown to potential fines, litigation, or reputational damage. Compliance failures could result in significant financial penalties and operational disruptions.
Lower
Employee Poaching
There is a risk of customer loss and decreased margins due to competitors poaching employees from Brown & Brown. This could impact client relationships and overall business performance.
Lower
Shareholder Dilution
Shareholders of Brown & Brown have experienced dilution over the past year, which could affect their ownership percentage and overall returns. This dilution may raise concerns among investors regarding future capital raises.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BRO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Brown & Brown has consistently exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations, showcasing robust financial health. This strong performance underlines the company's ability to generate profits and maintain stability in a competitive market.
Significant Revenue Growth
The company has demonstrated a notable year-over-year revenue increase, reflecting its expanding market presence in the insurance sector. This growth trajectory positions Brown & Brown favorably against its competitors.
Favorable Market Position
Brown & Brown is poised to benefit from rising casualty rates and expanding opportunities across various insurance lines. Additionally, the company is well-positioned to take advantage of firming property rates in Florida, enhancing its market share.
Consistent Dividend Increases
The company has a strong history of consistent dividend increases, which underscores its financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders. This reliability can attract income-focused investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BRO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$56.56
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.54
+0.0% from the low
52-Week High
$113.84
-50.3% from the high
1 Month
-14.97%
3 Month
-23.34%
YTD
-27.1%
1 Year
-48.8%
3Y CAGR
-4.9%
5Y CAGR
+1.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BRO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 14.9x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.4%
vs +7.3% median
+153% above peer median
Net Margin
17.9%
vs 15.6% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRO BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $19.3B | 12.5x | +18.4% | 17.9% | Hold | +56.5% |
AJG AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $50.6B | 14.9x | +19.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +39.3% |
MMC MMC Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | 16.9x | +7.3% | 15.6% | Hold | +18.8% |
AON AON Aon plc | $66.0B | 16.2x | +6.6% | 22.5% | Buy | +31.2% |
WTW WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $23.8B | 12.9x | +2.3% | 16.8% | Buy | +34.1% |
RYA RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | $3.8B | 13.8x | +19.1% | 4.2% | Buy | +55.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BRO Dividend and Capital Return
BRO returns 1.6% total yield, led by a 1.10% dividend, raised 32 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
18.4%
How BRO Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.62
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
32Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.3%
5Y Div CAGR
12.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$100M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
340M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.61 | +13.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 2024 | $0.54 | +13.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.48 | +12.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $0.42 | +11.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBRO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $89, implying +56.5% from the current price of $57. The bear case scenario is $48 and the bull case is $86.
02What is the BRO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BRO is $89 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $89 (+57.4% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (+55.6%). The base case model target is $80.
03Is Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) stock overvalued in 2026?
BRO trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BRO in 2026 are: (1) Insurance Pricing Cycle — Brown & Brown's earnings are closely linked to the insurance pricing cycle. (2) Integration Execution — As an acquisitive company, Brown & Brown faces substantial risks related to the successful integration of mergers and acquisitions. (3) Margin Compression — Rising costs in wages, producer compensation, and technology, combined with slowing revenue growth, can lead to significant margin compression for Brown & Brown. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Brown & Brown, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BRO will report consensus revenue of $7.6B (+18.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.07 (+20.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.1B in revenue.
06When does Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BRO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Brown & Brown, Inc. generate?
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.0%. BRO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($100M TTM).