Upside case
Bull case
$261+49.9%
MMC would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering MMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$207
+18.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$130 – $261
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $85.3B
MMC price targets
Three scenarios for where MMC stock could go
Current
~$174
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $174
Bear
$130
Base
$224
Bull
$261
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$224+28.4%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$130-25.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MMC down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
MMC · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - BrokersDecember year-end
Marsh & McLennan is a global professional services firm that provides risk management, insurance brokerage, and consulting services to businesses and organizations. It generates revenue primarily through its Risk and Insurance Services segment — which accounts for roughly 60% of revenue — and its Consulting segment, which includes health, wealth, and career consulting. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, global network of client relationships, and deep expertise in complex risk and insurance markets.
Market Cap
$85.3B
Revenue TTM
$26.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
15.6%
MMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$3.06/$3.02
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.72/$2.67
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.78
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.87/$1.97
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $3.06/$3.02 | +1.3% | $7.1B/$7.1B | -0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.72/$2.67 | +1.9% | $7.0B/$6.9B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.85/$1.78 | +3.9% | $6.4B/$6.3B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.87/$1.97 | -5.1% | $6.6B/$6.6B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.4B
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$30.3B
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.67
+15.8% YoY
FY2
$10.51
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.1B
FCF Margin: 19.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MMC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $24.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Risk and Insurance Services Segment
62.8%
+9.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
47.6%
+6.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Risk and Insurance Services Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 62.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 9.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 47.6%, up 6.8% YoY.
MMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $168 — implies -3.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MMC
21.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
16% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MMC
21.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+59% premium
vs MMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.3x
vs
5Y Average
27.3x
22% discount
Forward PE
16.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-11%
Financial Services
10.5x
+61%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-16%
Financial Services
13.4x
+59%
5Y Avg
27.3x
-22%
PEG Ratio
1.11x
S&P 500
1.75x
-36%
Financial Services
1.03x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+5%
Financial Services
11.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-16%
Price/FCF
21.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+0%
Financial Services
10.6x
+101%
5Y Avg
25.5x
-16%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+11%
Financial Services
2.3x
+55%
5Y Avg
4.1x
-15%
Dividend Yield
1.75%
S&P 500
1.88%
-7%
Financial Services
2.68%
-35%
5Y Avg
1.38%
+27%
| Metric | MMC | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.9x | 19.1x-11% | 10.5x+61% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.3x | 25.2x-16% | 13.4x+59% | 27.3x-22% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.11x | 1.75x-36% | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0x | 15.3x | 11.4x+40% | 18.9x-16% |
| Price/FCF | 21.4x | 21.3x | 10.6x+101% | 25.5x-16% |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+11% | 2.3x+55% | 4.1x-15% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.75% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.38% |
MMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMMC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MMC posts 15.6% net margin with 26.9% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.35
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
26.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$900M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
496M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Vulnerabilities
MMC’s global footprint exposes it to economic downturns, geopolitical conflicts, and wars that can dampen client demand and lower insurance premium rates. Foreign‑exchange headwinds further erode financial results, potentially impacting revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Softer Organic Growth & Margin Pressures
Recent softness in the Risk & Insurance Services segment has led to lower organic growth, threatening future profitability. Anticipated margin deterioration stems from weaker revenue performance and increased investment spending.
Medium
Market Disruption & Technological Advances
Artificial intelligence and digital platforms threaten MMC’s traditional business models, risking disintermediation. The firm must continually invest in technology to stay competitive and maintain market share.
Medium
Competition & Talent Retention
MMC faces intense rivalry from established professional services firms and new digital entrants, while retaining top talent remains challenging. This competitive pressure could erode market share and increase recruitment costs.
Medium
Regulatory & Compliance Risks
MMC operates under a complex web of international regulations, raising operational costs and compliance risks. Non‑compliance with cybersecurity standards such as CMMC can lead to contract loss, legal penalties, and reputational damage.
Medium
Financial Risks
MMC is exposed to credit risk from counterparties, market risk from interest rate and currency fluctuations, and liquidity risk from potential shortfalls in meeting obligations. These risks could affect the company’s financial stability and capital structure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent Revenue & Income Growth
Over the past 13 years, MMC’s revenue has grown at a 6% CAGR, with a projected 7% CAGR for the next four years. Net income has expanded at an 11% CAGR, with a 12% CAGR forecast for the coming four years. The company delivered a 75% total shareholder return over the last five years.
Digital Transformation & AI Investment
MMC is investing heavily in digital transformation, advanced analytics, and AI to boost operational efficiency. These initiatives are expected to enhance product and service offerings, expand margins, and drive net earnings growth through better client retention and lower costs.
Robust Risk & Insurance Services Growth
The Risk and Insurance Services segment, including Marsh agency and Guy Carpenter, is experiencing strong organic growth. Expectations of continued strength are supported by emerging international markets, favorable macro conditions, and the strategic McGriff acquisition, which should boost revenue and strengthen the middle‑market position.
Strong Financial Health & Efficiency
MMC boasts a solid ROE of 32.6%, well above the industry average. Revenue growth year‑over‑year is 11.5%, with healthy gross and operating margins, underscoring the company’s efficient cost structure and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$174.06
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$170.37
+2.2% from the low
52-Week High
$235.78
-26.2% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
-5.93%
YTD
-4.6%
1 Year
-23.2%
3Y CAGR
-1.1%
5Y CAGR
+4.8%
10Y CAGR
+10.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.9x
vs 14.9x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.3%
vs +7.9% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
15.6%
vs 17.4% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMC MMC Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | 16.9x | +7.3% | 15.6% | Hold | +18.8% |
AON AON Aon plc | $66.0B | 16.2x | +6.6% | 22.5% | Buy | +31.2% |
WTW WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $23.8B | 12.9x | +2.3% | 16.8% | Buy | +34.1% |
AJG AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $50.6B | 14.9x | +19.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +39.3% |
BRO BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $19.3B | 12.5x | +18.4% | 17.9% | Hold | +56.5% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.5B | 26.9x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +21.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MMC Dividend and Capital Return
MMC returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 1.75% dividend, raised 19 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
1.75%
Payout Ratio
37.3%
How MMC Splits Its Return
Div 1.75%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 1.75%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.1%
5Y Div CAGR
13.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$900M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
496M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.43 | +12.5% | — | — |
| 2024 | $3.05 | +17.3% | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $2.60 | +15.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $2.25 | +12.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsMMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $207, implying +18.8% from the current price of $174. The bear case scenario is $130 and the bull case is $261.
02What is the MMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MMC is $207 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $236 (+35.6% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $224.
03Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
MMC trades at 16.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MMC in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Vulnerabilities — MMC’s global footprint exposes it to economic downturns, geopolitical conflicts, and wars that can dampen client demand and lower insurance premium rates. (2) Softer Organic Growth & Margin Pressures — Recent softness in the Risk & Insurance Services segment has led to lower organic growth, threatening future profitability. (3) Market Disruption & Technological Advances — Artificial intelligence and digital platforms threaten MMC’s traditional business models, risking disintermediation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MMC will report consensus revenue of $28.4B (+7.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.67 (+15.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.3B in revenue.
06When does Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MMC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. generate?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) generated $5.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.3%. MMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($900M TTM).