Upside case
Bull case
$201+49.9%
HIG would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering HIG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
18
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
+13.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $201
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.9B
HIG price targets
Three scenarios for where HIG stock could go
Current
~$134
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $134
Bear
$34
Base
$172
Bull
$201
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$172+28.2%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-74.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push HIG down roughly 75% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
HIG · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
The Hartford Financial Services Group is a diversified insurance company offering property and casualty insurance, group benefits, and mutual funds. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums — with commercial lines (workers' compensation, property, auto) and personal lines (auto, homeowners) as its core segments — along with investment income from its substantial portfolio. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition among small businesses, deep risk management expertise, and extensive distribution network through independent agents.
Market Cap
$36.9B
Revenue TTM
$28.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
14.1%
HIG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.41/$2.83
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.78/$3.09
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.06/$3.17
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.09/$3.39
Revenue
$7.2B/$7.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.41/$2.83 | +20.5% | $7.0B/$7.0B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.78/$3.09 | +22.3% | $7.1B/$7.2B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.06/$3.17 | +28.1% | $7.3B/$7.3B | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.09/$3.39 | -8.8% | $7.2B/$7.3B | -1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.3B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$32.4B
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.00
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$17.08
+13.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.8B
FCF Margin: 20.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HIG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HIG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $229M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Property, Liability and Casualty Insurance Product Line
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Property, Liability and Casualty Insurance Product Line is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HIG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $135 — implies -0.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HIG
10.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
60% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
HIG
10.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
24% discount
vs HIG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.1x
vs
5Y Average
11.1x
9% discount
Forward PE
10.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-47%
Financial Services
10.4x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-60%
Financial Services
13.3x
-24%
5Y Avg
11.1x
-9%
PEG Ratio
0.44x
S&P 500
1.72x
-74%
Financial Services
1.01x
-56%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-48%
Financial Services
11.4x
-30%
5Y Avg
8.7x
-9%
Price/FCF
6.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-70%
Financial Services
10.6x
-39%
5Y Avg
6.3x
+2%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Financial Services
2.2x
-41%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+10%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
S&P 500
1.87%
-18%
Financial Services
2.70%
-43%
5Y Avg
1.86%
-17%
| Metric | HIG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg HIG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.2x | 19.1x-47% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.1x | 25.1x-60% | 13.3x-24% | 11.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.44x | 1.72x-74% | 1.01x-56% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0x | 15.2x-48% | 11.4x-30% | 8.7x |
| Price/FCF | 6.4x | 21.1x-70% | 10.6x-39% | 6.3x |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 2.2x-41% | 1.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.86% |
HIG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHIG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HIG posts 14.1% net margin with 22.0% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$28.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.37
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
22.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$133M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.9%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
275M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHIG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
HIG’s investment portfolio is exposed to fluctuations in credit spreads, equity prices, and interest rates, which can materially alter investment income and overall profitability. Concentration in specific economic sectors further heightens vulnerability to sector‑specific downturns.
High Risk
Catastrophic Losses
Escalating catastrophic losses in the property and casualty business can cause significant earnings volatility. Economic downturns, political instability, and global market disruptions—alongside inflation, unemployment, and labor shortages—can amplify claims costs and reduce demand for insurance products.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Risks
The insurance industry’s heavy regulation exposes HIG to adverse changes in tax laws, increased regulatory scrutiny, or new compliance requirements. Such shifts could raise operating costs, affect product demand, and increase capital needs, potentially constraining growth.
Medium
Competitive Pressures
HIG competes with larger, well‑resourced insurers and non‑traditional carriers that leverage advanced technologies. Intense competition can lead to pricing pressure and erode profit margins.
Medium
Technological Disruptions
Rapid technological advancements pose a risk of disruption; competitors may adopt new technologies more effectively, eroding HIG’s competitive advantage. Continuous investment in technology is required to meet evolving customer expectations and industry standards.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HIG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Business Insurance Growth
The Hartford’s business insurance segment has shown significant expansion, driving overall performance. This growth underpins the company’s ability to capture higher premiums and diversify revenue streams.
Revenue Growth
In the most recent quarter, revenue rose 6.7% year‑on‑year, outperforming many competitors. This uptick reflects robust underwriting and effective pricing strategies.
Improving Margins and Ratios
Combined ratios have been trending downward, while operating margins are strengthening. These improvements signal greater underwriting efficiency and cost control.
Earnings Growth
Analysts project positive year‑over‑year EPS growth, with recent upward revisions to earnings estimates. This trajectory indicates a solid earnings trajectory for the coming years.
Low Dividend Payout Ratio
The company maintains a low payout ratio of approximately 16.8% to 18%, allowing it to retain earnings for reinvestment and future growth. This conservative payout supports capital allocation flexibility.
AI‑First Integration
The Hartford is deploying AI across claims, underwriting, and customer service to enhance operational efficiency and competitive advantage. This technology focus positions the firm to reduce costs and improve customer experience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HIG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$134.15
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.61
+12.2% from the low
52-Week High
$144.50
-7.2% from the high
1 Month
-1.66%
3 Month
-5.73%
YTD
-2.2%
1 Year
+6.7%
3Y CAGR
+24.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HIG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.2x
vs 11.9x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +2.4% median
+128% above peer median
Net Margin
14.1%
vs 12.1% median
+17% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
CB CB Chubb Limited | $125.9B | 11.9x | +3.4% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $12.0B | 9.2x | +2.4% | 8.7% | Hold | +1.1% |
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.9B | 14.3x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +5.7% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $28.8B | 26.8x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | +2.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HIG Dividend and Capital Return
HIG returns capital mainly through $1.6B/year in buybacks (4.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.54% dividend — combining for 5.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
Payout Ratio
15.4%
How HIG Splits Its Return
Div 1.54%
Buyback 4.4%
Dividend 1.54%Buybacks 4.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.0%
5Y Div CAGR
10.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
275M
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.16 | +11.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $1.93 | +10.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% |
| 2023 | $1.74 | +10.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | $1.58 | +10.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsHIG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying +13.3% from the current price of $134. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $201.
02What is the HIG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HIG is $152 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $165 (+23.0% from today), and the low-end target is $135 (+0.6%). The base case model target is $172.
03Is The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) stock overvalued in 2026?
HIG trades at 10.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HIG in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — HIG’s investment portfolio is exposed to fluctuations in credit spreads, equity prices, and interest rates, which can materially alter investment income and overall profitability. (2) Catastrophic Losses — Escalating catastrophic losses in the property and casualty business can cause significant earnings volatility. (3) Regulatory & Legal Risks — The insurance industry’s heavy regulation exposes HIG to adverse changes in tax laws, increased regulatory scrutiny, or new compliance requirements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HIG will report consensus revenue of $30.3B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.00 (+4.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $32.4B in revenue.
06When does The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HIG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. generate?
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) generated $5.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.2%. HIG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($1.6B TTM).