Upside case
Bull case
$4897+13193.8%
AR would need investors to value it at roughly 1115x earnings — about 1107x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
34 bullish · 0 bearish · 50 covering AR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
33
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$49
+32.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $4897
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.4B
AR price targets
Three scenarios for where AR stock could go
Current
~$37
Confidence
30 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $37
Base
$67
Bull
$4897
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$67+82.0%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Antero Resources Corporation
AR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Antero Resources is an independent natural gas and natural gas liquids producer focused on the Appalachian Basin. It generates revenue primarily from natural gas sales (~60% of revenue), natural gas liquids sales (~35%), and oil sales (~5%), with its production heavily weighted toward liquids-rich gas. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, contiguous acreage position in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays — which provides operational efficiency and significant low-cost reserves.
Market Cap
$11.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
$962M
Net Margin
17.5%
AR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.42
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.22
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.42/$0.50
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.15
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.42 | -16.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15/$0.22 | -31.8% | $1.2B/$1.4B | -16.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.42/$0.50 | -16.5% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.15 | +0.0% | $1.9B/$1.7B | +16.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.1B
+11.9% YoY
FY2
$6.5B
+6.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.56
+15.1% YoY
FY2
$3.69
+3.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.0B
FCF Margin: -18.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AR beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas, Production
55.9%
+58.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Natural Gas, Production is the largest disclosed segment at 55.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 58.0% YoY.
AR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $54 — implies +38.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
38.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AR
18.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
AR
18.1x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+8% premium
vs AR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.1x
vs
5Y Average
63.1x
71% discount
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-56%
Energy
13.2x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Energy
16.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
63.1x
-71%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-32%
Energy
8.1x
+27%
5Y Avg
11.7x
-12%
Price/FCF
9.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-57%
Energy
14.1x
-35%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+18%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Energy
1.6x
+46%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+32%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Energy
2.97%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg AR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 19.1x-56% | 13.2x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.1x | 25.2x-28% | 16.9x | 63.1x-71% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 15.3x-32% | 8.1x+27% | 11.7x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 9.2x | 21.3x-57% | 14.1x-35% | 7.8x+18% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 1.6x+46% | 1.7x+32% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.97% | — |
AR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AR returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-18.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$210M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$136M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
310M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Antero Resources Corporation's stock price is highly correlated with the prices of natural gas and crude oil. Significant fluctuations in these commodity markets can drastically impact the company's revenue, earnings, and overall stock value.
High Risk
Data Privacy and Security Breaches
AR technology systems collect extensive user data, making them susceptible to privacy violations and identity theft. For instance, the 'Harry Potter: Wizards Unite' game exposed player data, highlighting the risks of financial loss if such data is compromised.
Medium
Decarbonization and ESG Pressures
Long-term demand for gas and NGL may face headwinds due to increasing decarbonization efforts and the adoption of renewable energy sources. This shift can adversely affect pricing and margins for Antero Resources.
Medium
Technological and Development Risks
As an emerging technology, AR faces evolving standards and regulations, which can complicate the development of applications. The costs associated with developing AR applications and potential integration challenges with existing systems pose significant risks.
Medium
Market and Adoption Risks
Investments in AR technology may require substantial financial outlays, risking alienation of customers who cannot afford or effectively use the technology. Companies may also fall behind competitors who adopt AR/VR technologies more swiftly.
Lower
Sector Trends and Macroeconomic Factors
The performance of Antero Resources' stock is influenced by broader energy sector trends, including supply outlooks, interest rates, and economic growth signals. These macroeconomic factors can create uncertainty in stock performance.
Lower
Social and Behavioral Impacts
The use of AR technology can lead to social isolation and behavioral changes among users, raising concerns about manipulation and dependency. These impacts may affect user engagement and long-term adoption rates.
Lower
Ethical and Regulatory Challenges
The extensive data collection by AR technologies raises ethical questions regarding consumer protection and surveillance. The absence of universally recognized guidelines can lead to inconsistent security features, potentially harming user trust.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Analyst Sentiment
A strong majority of Wall Street analysts rate AR as a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy.' The median 12-month price target from various analysts ranges from $46.00 to $50.00, implying an upside of 21.56% to 32.1% from recent trading prices.
Operational Strengths
The bull case emphasizes Antero Resources' focus on operational improvements, along with its integrated midstream and water assets. These factors are seen as crucial for supporting margins and cash flow.
Financial Projections
Projections suggest substantial revenue and earnings growth by 2029, with expectations of revenue reaching $8.0 billion and earnings around $1.8 billion. Ongoing capital efficiency gains and reduced operating costs are expected to increase cash flow for debt reduction and shareholder returns.
Industry Position
Antero Resources is viewed favorably compared to other energy companies, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' versus a more neutral 'Hold' for the broader energy sector. This positive outlook positions AR well within the competitive landscape.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$36.84
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.10
+26.6% from the low
52-Week High
$45.75
-19.5% from the high
1 Month
-8.72%
3 Month
+7.19%
YTD
+7.7%
1 Year
+3.8%
3Y CAGR
+20.8%
5Y CAGR
+28.6%
10Y CAGR
+3.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 11.7x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.9%
vs +11.5% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
17.5%
vs 31.9% median
-45% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR AR Antero Resources Corporation | $11.4B | 8.4x | +11.9% | 17.5% | Buy | +32.7% |
EQT EQT EQT Corporation | $35.8B | 11.7x | +18.4% | 33.4% | Buy | -28.3% |
RRC RRC Range Resources Corporation | $9.7B | 9.6x | +11.5% | 28.4% | Hold | +13.1% |
CNX CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $5.2B | 12.6x | +19.3% | 50.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
AM AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $10.1B | 19.1x | +6.0% | 31.9% | Hold | +1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AR Dividend and Capital Return
AR returns 1.1% annually — null% through dividends and 1.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$136M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
310M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.30 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | $0.24 | -50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015 | $0.48 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $49, implying +32.7% from the current price of $37.
02What is the AR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AR is $49 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $57 (+54.7% from today), and the low-end target is $38 (+3.1%). The base case model target is $67.
03Is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock overvalued in 2026?
AR trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AR in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Antero Resources Corporation's stock price is highly correlated with the prices of natural gas and crude oil. (2) Data Privacy and Security Breaches — AR technology systems collect extensive user data, making them susceptible to privacy violations and identity theft. (3) Decarbonization and ESG Pressures — Long-term demand for gas and NGL may face headwinds due to increasing decarbonization efforts and the adoption of renewable energy sources. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Antero Resources Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AR will report consensus revenue of $6.1B (+11.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.56 (+15.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.5B in revenue.
06When does Antero Resources Corporation (AR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Antero Resources Corporation generate?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) had a free cash outflow of $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.6%. AR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($136M TTM).