Upside case
Bull case
$71+114.9%
AR would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
34 bullish · 0 bearish · 50 covering AR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
33
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$51
+53.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $71
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
AR price targets
Three scenarios for where AR stock could go
Current
~$33
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $33
Bear
$34
Base
$54
Bull
$71
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$54+63.1%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34+2.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push AR down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Antero Resources Corporation
AR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Antero Resources is an independent natural gas and natural gas liquids producer focused on the Appalachian Basin. It generates revenue primarily from natural gas sales (~60% of revenue), natural gas liquids sales (~35%), and oil sales (~5%), with its production heavily weighted toward liquids-rich gas. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, contiguous acreage position in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays — which provides operational efficiency and significant low-cost reserves.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
$962M
Net Margin
17.5%
AR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.42
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.22
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.42/$0.50
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.17
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.42 | -16.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15/$0.22 | -31.8% | $1.2B/$1.4B | -16.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.42/$0.50 | -16.5% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.17 | -1.7% | $1.9B/$1.7B | +16.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.2B
+13.2% YoY
FY2
$6.8B
+9.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.31
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$3.16
-4.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.0B
FCF Margin: -18.6%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.92
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
AR beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas, Production
55.9%
+58.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Natural Gas, Production is the largest disclosed segment at 55.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 58.0% YoY.
AR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $38 — implies +14.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AR
16.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
33% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
AR
16.4x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+6% premium
vs AR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.4x
vs
5Y Average
63.1x
74% discount
Forward PE
7.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-61%
Energy
12.5x
-41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-33%
Energy
15.5x
+6%
5Y Avg
63.1x
-74%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-37%
Energy
7.8x
+23%
5Y Avg
11.7x
-18%
Price/FCF
8.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-60%
Energy
13.8x
-40%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+6%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-34%
Energy
1.4x
+45%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+19%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Energy
3.47%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg AR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.4x | 18.8x-61% | 12.5x-41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.4x | 24.4x-33% | 15.5x | 63.1x-74% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6x | 15.2x-37% | 7.8x+23% | 11.7x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 8.3x | 20.7x-60% | 13.8x-40% | 7.8x |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-34% | 1.4x+45% | 1.7x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.47% | — |
AR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AR returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-18.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$210M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$136M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
310M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Antero Resources reported mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings with an EPS miss and outlook adjustments, contributing to a 10% stock decline.
Medium
Production Execution Risk
Investors should monitor production execution post-HG acquisition, with guidance averaging 4.1 Bcfe/d driven by Marcellus and Utica expansions.
High Risk
Disclosed Risk Factors
Antero Resources disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges.
Medium
Market Sentiment
The stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 due to negative market reaction to earnings and outlook adjustments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Low-cost Appalachian reserves
Antero Resources benefits from low-cost reserves in the Appalachian region, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.
Natural gas and NGL export growth
The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand for natural gas and NGL exports, driving revenue potential.
Strategic Marcellus focus
Antero's concentrated operations in the Marcellus region provide operational efficiencies and access to high-quality resources.
Technical stock momentum
Chart-based analysis indicates positive trends, with institutional traders monitoring key moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$33.22
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.10
+14.2% from the low
52-Week High
$45.75
-27.4% from the high
1 Month
-13.40%
3 Month
-19.95%
YTD
-2.9%
1 Year
-22.8%
3Y CAGR
+15.5%
5Y CAGR
+20.3%
10Y CAGR
+1.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.4x
vs 10.6x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.2%
vs +8.4% median
+58% above peer median
Net Margin
17.5%
vs 31.9% median
-45% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR AR Antero Resources Corporation | $10.3B | 7.4x | +13.2% | 17.5% | Buy | +53.9% |
EQT EQT EQT Corporation | $31.7B | 10.6x | +7.7% | 33.4% | Buy | -19.0% |
RRC RRC Range Resources Corporation | $8.6B | 8.5x | +10.7% | 28.4% | Hold | +30.3% |
CNX CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $4.6B | 10.4x | +8.9% | 50.9% | Hold | +10.2% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
AM AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $10.3B | 19.7x | +8.4% | 31.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AR Dividend and Capital Return
AR returns 1.3% annually — null% through dividends and 1.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$136M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
310M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.30 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | $0.24 | -50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015 | $0.48 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $51, implying +53.9% from the current price of $33. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $71.
02What is the AR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AR is $51 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $57 (+71.6% from today), and the low-end target is $38 (+14.4%). The base case model target is $54.
03Is Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock overvalued in 2026?
AR trades at 7.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AR in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — Antero Resources reported mixed Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings with an EPS miss and outlook adjustments, contributing to a 10% stock decline. (2) Disclosed Risk Factors — Antero Resources disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges. (3) Production Execution Risk — Investors should monitor production execution post-HG acquisition, with guidance averaging 4. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Antero Resources Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AR will report consensus revenue of $6.2B (+13.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.31 (+7.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.8B in revenue.
06When does Antero Resources Corporation (AR) report its next earnings?
Antero Resources Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, AR has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Antero Resources Corporation generate?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) had a free cash outflow of $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.6%. AR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($136M TTM).