Upside case
Bull case
$35+65.2%
AM would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
2 bullish · 4 bearish · 17 covering AM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
11
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
+1.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $35
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.1B
AM price targets
Three scenarios for where AM stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
28 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Base
$26
Bull
$35
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$26+23.0%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Antero Midstream Corporation
AM · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Antero Midstream Corporation is a midstream energy infrastructure company that operates gathering pipelines, processing facilities, and water handling systems primarily for its parent company Antero Resources. It generates revenue through fee-based contracts from its Gathering and Processing segment (~70% of revenue) and Water Handling segment (~30%), with virtually all business tied to Antero Resources' Appalachian basin operations. The company's key advantage is its exclusive, long-term contracts with Antero Resources—its primary customer and majority owner—creating a captive revenue stream with minimal competition.
Market Cap
$10.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$411M
Net Margin
31.9%
AM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-8.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.25
Revenue
$323M/$300M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.25
Revenue
$312M/$292M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.24
Revenue
$297M/$296M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.26
Revenue
$314M/$311M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.26/$0.25 | +5.3% | $323M/$300M | +7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$0.25 | -4.0% | $312M/$292M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.11/$0.24 | -54.2% | $297M/$296M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.25/$0.26 | -3.8% | $314M/$311M | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.97
+12.4% YoY
FY2
$1.06
+9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$916M
FCF Margin: 71.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AM beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing And Processing Affiliate
78.4%
+6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing And Processing Affiliate is the largest disclosed segment at 78.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.6% YoY.
AM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $17 — implies -23.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
23.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AM
24.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Energy Trailing P/E
AM
24.6x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+46% premium
vs AM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.6x
vs
5Y Average
17.0x
+45% premium
Forward PE
19.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+0%
Energy
13.2x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-2%
Energy
16.9x
+46%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+45%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1%
Energy
8.1x
+89%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+30%
Price/FCF
13.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-39%
Energy
14.1x
-8%
5Y Avg
14.3x
-9%
Price/Sales
8.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+155%
Energy
1.6x
+411%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+40%
Dividend Yield
4.30%
S&P 500
1.88%
+129%
Energy
2.97%
+45%
5Y Avg
7.36%
-42%
| Metric | AM | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg AM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.1x | 19.1x | 13.2x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.6x | 25.2x | 16.9x+46% | 17.0x+45% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.4x | 15.3x | 8.1x+89% | 11.8x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 13.0x | 21.3x-39% | 14.1x | 14.3x |
| Price/Sales | 8.0x | 3.1x+155% | 1.6x+411% | 5.7x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.30% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 7.36% |
AM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AM generates $916M in free cash flow at a 71.2% margin — returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
57.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$916M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
71.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$180M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
4.3%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$135M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
106.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
475M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Antero Midstream's reliance on Antero Resources and a limited number of other producers poses a significant risk. Any financial distress or changes in Antero Resources' drilling plans could adversely affect AM's volumes and revenue.
High Risk
Debt Levels
Antero Midstream carries a high level of debt, with $3.22 billion in debt against only $180.44 million in cash. This results in a net debt position of -$3.04 billion, which presents a notable risk to the company's financial stability.
High Risk
Dividend Coverage
The current dividend payout of 4.17% is not well-covered by earnings, indicating a potential risk to the sustainability of the dividend. This could lead to future cuts if earnings do not improve.
Medium
Commodity and Pricing Risk
While many of AM's fees are fixed, its processing and incentive economics are sensitive to fluctuations in natural gas and NGL prices. Changes in these prices can indirectly impact volumes and profit margins.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analyses suggest that Antero Midstream may be overvalued, as indicated by a Value Score of D from Zacks. This could make it a less attractive option for value investors.
Medium
Market Underperformance
AM has underperformed both the broader US market and the US Oil and Gas industry over the past year, which may raise concerns for potential investors regarding its growth prospects.
Lower
Analyst Consensus
The consensus rating among analysts for AM is 'Hold,' with a significant portion recommending selling the stock. This mixed sentiment may indicate uncertainty about the stock's future performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI and Data Center Growth
AMD is a prominent player in AI GPUs and related hardware, with its data center business showing accelerated growth for several quarters. The company has secured major deals with companies like OpenAI and Meta for large-scale hardware deployments, which are expected to generate significant revenue. Management has reaffirmed its target to scale Data Center AI revenue to tens of billions by 2027.
Expanding Market Share
AMD's EPYC processors are gaining share in the server CPU market, even as competitors like Intel work through supply constraints. The company's 'Zen' core architecture has been instrumental in capturing market share and setting new performance standards.
Strong Financial Performance
AMD reported record Q4 revenue of $10.3 billion, up 34% year-over-year, and record full-year revenue of $34.6 billion, also up 34%. Data Center segment revenue hit a record $5.4 billion in Q4, up 39% year-over-year.
Product Portfolio and Innovation
AMD offers the broadest portfolio of AI solutions, including CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions. The company continues to invest in R&D and go-to-market initiatives to position itself for long-term growth.
Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions
AMD has expanded strategic partnerships and acquired companies like ZT Systems to address the data center AI accelerator opportunity.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.16
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.77
+26.2% from the low
52-Week High
$23.84
-11.2% from the high
1 Month
-6.37%
3 Month
+10.32%
YTD
+17.9%
1 Year
+20.8%
3Y CAGR
+26.9%
5Y CAGR
+18.3%
10Y CAGR
-4.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.1x
vs 13.2x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +6.5% median
-8% below peer median
Net Margin
31.9%
vs 21.8% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $10.1B | 19.1x | +6.0% | 31.9% | Hold | +1.6% |
HES HESM Hess Midstream LP | $8.0B | 13.2x | +7.1% | 21.8% | Hold | -16.3% |
DKL DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP | $2.7B | 13.9x | +4.7% | 16.0% | Hold | +9.3% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.8B | 12.9x | +6.5% | 29.9% | Hold | -0.6% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $53.6B | 24.6x | +6.7% | 9.4% | Buy | -4.7% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AM Dividend and Capital Return
AM returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 4.30% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
4.30%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How AM Splits Its Return
Div 4.30%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 4.30%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-6.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$135M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
475M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 6.7% |
| 2024 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% |
| 2023 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.3% |
| 2022 | $0.90 | -8.4% | 0.1% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying +1.6% from the current price of $21.
02What is the AM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AM is $22 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $23 (+8.7% from today), and the low-end target is $20 (-5.5%). The base case model target is $26.
03Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AM trades at 19.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AM in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration — Antero Midstream's reliance on Antero Resources and a limited number of other producers poses a significant risk. (2) Debt Levels — Antero Midstream carries a high level of debt, with $3. (3) Dividend Coverage — The current dividend payout of 4. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Antero Midstream Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AM will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.97 (+12.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Antero Midstream Corporation generate?
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) generated $916M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 71.2%. AM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.3% yield) and share repurchases ($135M TTM).