Upside case
Bull case
$25+16.2%
AM would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
1 bullish · 4 bearish · 17 covering AM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
12
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
-1.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $25
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
AM price targets
Three scenarios for where AM stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$12
Base
$19
Bull
$25
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$19-11.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AM — at roughly 17x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$12-44.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push AM down roughly 44% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Antero Midstream Corporation
AM · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Antero Midstream Corporation is a midstream energy infrastructure company that operates gathering pipelines, processing facilities, and water handling systems primarily for its parent company Antero Resources. It generates revenue through fee-based contracts from its Gathering and Processing segment (~70% of revenue) and Water Handling segment (~30%), with virtually all business tied to Antero Resources' Appalachian basin operations. The company's key advantage is its exclusive, long-term contracts with Antero Resources—its primary customer and majority owner—creating a captive revenue stream with minimal competition.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$411M
Net Margin
31.9%
AM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-8.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.25
Revenue
$323M/$300M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.25
Revenue
$312M/$292M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.24
Revenue
$297M/$296M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.26
Revenue
$314M/$311M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.26/$0.25 | +5.3% | $323M/$300M | +7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$0.25 | -4.0% | $312M/$292M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.11/$0.24 | -54.2% | $297M/$296M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.25/$0.26 | -3.8% | $314M/$311M | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.98
+13.9% YoY
FY2
$1.06
+8.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$916M
FCF Margin: 71.2%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.28
Expected Revenue
$330M
AM beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing And Processing Affiliate
78.4%
+6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing And Processing Affiliate is the largest disclosed segment at 78.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.6% YoY.
AM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $16 — implies -25.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AM
25.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Energy Trailing P/E
AM
25.2x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+63% premium
vs AM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.2x
vs
5Y Average
17.0x
+48% premium
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+5%
Energy
12.5x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+3%
Energy
15.5x
+63%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+48%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+3%
Energy
7.8x
+101%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+33%
Price/FCF
13.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-35%
Energy
13.8x
-3%
5Y Avg
14.3x
-6%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+165%
Energy
1.4x
+478%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+44%
Dividend Yield
4.19%
S&P 500
1.91%
+119%
Energy
3.47%
+21%
5Y Avg
7.36%
-43%
| Metric | AM | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg AM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 18.8x | 12.5x+58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.2x | 24.4x | 15.5x+63% | 17.0x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7x | 15.2x | 7.8x+101% | 11.8x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 13.4x | 20.7x-35% | 13.8x | 14.3x |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+165% | 1.4x+478% | 5.7x+44% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.19% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 7.36% |
AM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AM generates $916M in free cash flow at a 71.2% margin — returns 5.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
57.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$916M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
71.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$180M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.5%
Dividend
4.2%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$135M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
106.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
475M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Dividend sustainability risk
The company's ability to maintain its $0.90 annual dividend is under scrutiny, with free cash flow after dividends projected in a tight $275-300 million range.
High Risk
Leverage concerns
Antero Midstream's leverage ratio near 3.0x could constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market downturns.
Medium
Post-acquisition integration risk
The company's financial health following the HG acquisition remains unproven, with guidance serving as a critical test of operational stability.
Medium
Limited growth visibility
Management guidance only provides a 1-2 year outlook, creating uncertainty about long-term growth prospects beyond 2026.
Lower
Regulatory disclosure burden
The company disclosed 56 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating potential operational and financial complexities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Appalachia energy leadership
Antero Midstream Corporation is a leader in Appalachia energy infrastructure, providing a customized, integrated full value chain midstream solution primarily servicing Antero Resources.
Strong market positioning
The company operates in the Energy sector, specifically Oil & Gas Midstream, and is headquartered in the United States, indicating a strong market presence.
Comprehensive SEC filings
MarketBeat offers Antero Midstream's complete SEC filing history through 2026, including 10-K annual reports, 10-Q quarterly filings, and 8-K current reports, providing transparency for investors.
Insider trading activity
Recent insider trading activity, such as the sale of shares by a director, provides insights into executive confidence and market valuation at $21.92 per share.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.71
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.77
+29.5% from the low
52-Week High
$23.84
-8.9% from the high
1 Month
-2.56%
3 Month
-4.53%
YTD
+21.0%
1 Year
+19.7%
3Y CAGR
+25.4%
5Y CAGR
+16.8%
10Y CAGR
-4.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 12.5x median
+57% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.4%
vs +5.8% median
+45% above peer median
Net Margin
31.9%
vs 21.8% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $10.3B | 19.7x | +8.4% | 31.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
HES HESM Hess Midstream LP | $7.7B | 12.5x | +8.8% | 21.8% | Hold | -4.9% |
DKL DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP | $2.7B | 14.4x | +4.6% | 16.0% | Hold | +11.1% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.9B | 12.4x | +7.9% | 29.9% | Hold | +7.7% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $55.5B | 23.9x | +5.8% | 13.0% | Buy | +6.7% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AM Dividend and Capital Return
AM returns 5.5% total yield, led by a 4.19% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
4.19%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How AM Splits Its Return
Div 4.19%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 4.19%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-6.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$135M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
475M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 6.7% |
| 2024 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% |
| 2023 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.3% |
| 2022 | $0.90 | -8.4% | 0.1% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying -1.0% from the current price of $22. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $25.
02What is the AM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AM is $22 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $23 (+5.9% from today), and the low-end target is $20 (-7.9%). The base case model target is $19.
03Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AM trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AM in 2026 are: (1) Dividend sustainability risk — The company's ability to maintain its $0. (2) Leverage concerns — Antero Midstream's leverage ratio near 3. (3) Post-acquisition integration risk — The company's financial health following the HG acquisition remains unproven, with guidance serving as a critical test of operational stability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Antero Midstream Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AM will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+8.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.98 (+13.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) report its next earnings?
Antero Midstream Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $330M. Over recent quarters, AM has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Antero Midstream Corporation generate?
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) generated $916M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 71.2%. AM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.2% yield) and share repurchases ($135M TTM).