Upside case
Bull case
$52+59.6%
CTRA would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
55
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 55 covering CTRA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
25
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$34
+5.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$25 – $52
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
55
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.7B
CTRA price targets
Three scenarios for where CTRA stock could go
Current
~$33
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $33
Bear
$25
Base
$39
Bull
$52
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$39+21.1%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$25-23.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push CTRA down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coterra Energy Inc.
CTRA · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Coterra Energy is an independent oil and gas producer focused on developing natural gas and crude oil reserves across premier U.S. shale basins. It generates revenue primarily from selling natural gas (roughly 60% of production) and crude oil/liquids (roughly 40%), with its largest operations in the Marcellus Shale and Permian Basin. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost, high-quality asset portfolio across multiple basins — particularly its core Marcellus position — which provides operational flexibility and resilience across commodity price cycles.
Market Cap
$24.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
25.7%
CTRA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.45
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.43
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.47
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.78/$0.92
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.48/$0.45 | +6.4% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41/$0.43 | -3.7% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.47 | -17.2% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +4.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.78/$0.92 | -15.5% | $1.9B/$2.2B | -13.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.8B
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$7.2B
+6.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.54
+16.4% YoY
FY2
$2.72
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 40.8%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.63
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
CTRA beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CTRA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Condensate
100.0%
+25.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil and Condensate is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.3% YoY.
CTRA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $29 — implies -10.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CTRA
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
41% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
CTRA
14.5x
vs
Energy
15.5x
6% discount
vs CTRA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
10.7x
+35% premium
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-40%
Energy
12.5x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-41%
Energy
15.5x
-6%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+35%
PEG Ratio
0.41x
S&P 500
1.66x
-75%
Energy
0.52x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-61%
Energy
7.8x
-24%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+19%
Price/FCF
15.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-27%
Energy
13.8x
+10%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+29%
Price/Sales
9.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+191%
Energy
1.4x
+535%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+138%
Dividend Yield
2.75%
S&P 500
1.91%
+44%
Energy
3.47%
-21%
5Y Avg
5.91%
-53%
| Metric | CTRA | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg CTRA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 18.8x-40% | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 24.4x-41% | 15.5x | 10.7x+35% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.41x | 1.66x-75% | 0.52x-20% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | 15.2x-61% | 7.8x-24% | 5.0x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 15.1x | 20.7x-27% | 13.8x | 11.7x+29% |
| Price/Sales | 9.0x | 3.1x+191% | 1.4x+535% | 3.8x+138% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.75% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 5.91% |
CTRA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCTRA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CTRA generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 40.8% margin — 10.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
25.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
40.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$119M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$141M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.90
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
759M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCTRA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Sector-wide decline
The bearish movement in Coterra Energy's stock is attributed to the overall sector decline, as indicated by similar drops in its peers, signaling broader market challenges in the energy industry.
High Risk
Energy transition risk
A bear case involves an accelerated energy transition that permanently impairs long-term demand for both oil and gas, stranding its assets.
Medium
Delayed re-rating risk
The recovery thesis hinges on a gap eventually closing, but Coterra's current financial setup and disciplined execution are critical for that re-rating to occur.
Lower
Moderate growth prospects
Coterra's long-term growth prospects are moderate, defined by high-quality returns rather than high-rate volume expansion.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CTRA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High-return portfolio
Coterra's high-return portfolio and disciplined execution provide a strong foundation for a potential re-rating.
Strong financial profile
Despite a softer quarter, Coterra maintains a strong financial profile, supporting resilience in weaker commodity markets.
Transformative acquisition potential
A long-term bull case involves Coterra leveraging its balance sheet for a value-accretive acquisition to boost growth.
Delayed re-rating opportunity
The investment case for Coterra in 2026 hinges on a classic bet on a delayed re-rating, driven by valuation and catalysts.
Revenue growth leadership
Coterra delivered the fastest revenue growth among its diversified upstream peers, highlighting operational strength.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CTRA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.56
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.33
+45.8% from the low
52-Week High
$36.88
-11.7% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
-2.72%
YTD
+22.4%
1 Year
+21.7%
3Y CAGR
+10.0%
5Y CAGR
+16.3%
10Y CAGR
+2.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CTRA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 8.5x median
+33% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.2%
vs +12.8% median
-67% below peer median
Net Margin
25.7%
vs 17.6% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
DVN DVN Devon Energy Corporation | $26.2B | 7.5x | +14.3% | 17.6% | Buy | +39.5% |
EQT EQT EQT Corporation | $31.7B | 10.6x | +7.7% | 33.4% | Buy | -19.0% |
AR AR Antero Resources Corporation | $10.3B | 7.4x | +13.2% | 17.5% | Buy | +53.9% |
RRC RRC Range Resources Corporation | $8.6B | 8.5x | +10.7% | 28.4% | Hold | +30.3% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.6B | 9.0x | +12.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +19.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CTRA Dividend and Capital Return
CTRA returns 3.3% total yield, led by a 2.75% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
2.75%
Payout Ratio
39.7%
How CTRA Splits Its Return
Div 2.75%
Dividend 2.75%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.90
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-29.3%
5Y Div CAGR
17.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$141M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
759M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.22 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.88 | +4.8% | 0.7% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $0.84 | -28.2% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $1.17 | -53.0% | 2.1% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $2.49 | +122.3% | 6.4% | 16.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCTRA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 55 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $34, implying +5.0% from the current price of $33. The bear case scenario is $25 and the bull case is $52.
02What is the CTRA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CTRA is $34 based on 55 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $42 (+29.0% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (-14.0%). The base case model target is $39.
03Is Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CTRA trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CTRA in 2026 are: (1) Sector-wide decline — The bearish movement in Coterra Energy's stock is attributed to the overall sector decline, as indicated by similar drops in its peers, signaling broader market challenges in the energy industry. (2) Energy transition risk — A bear case involves an accelerated energy transition that permanently impairs long-term demand for both oil and gas, stranding its assets. (3) Delayed re-rating risk — The recovery thesis hinges on a gap eventually closing, but Coterra's current financial setup and disciplined execution are critical for that re-rating to occur. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Coterra Energy Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CTRA will report consensus revenue of $6.8B (+4.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.54 (+16.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.2B in revenue.
06When does Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) report its next earnings?
Coterra Energy Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $0.63 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, CTRA has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Coterra Energy Inc. generate?
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 40.8%. CTRA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($141M TTM).