ARR trades 2.7% below Wall Street's consensus target of $15.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ARR achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 5.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 25 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $15.00, based on estimates from 25 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $14.60, this represents a potential upside of +2.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.70B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $13.00 to a high of $18.00, representing a 33% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,15 rating it Hold, and 5 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, ARR trades at a trailing P/E of 4.4x and forward P/E of 5.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -11.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $58.47, with bear and bull scenarios of $36.84 and $77.04 respectively. Model confidence stands at 48/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AGNCAGNC Investment Corp. | $11.4B | $9.91 | $11.67 | +17.8% | Hold | 6.3x | 35 |
 NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. | $15.8B | $21.04 | $23.50 | +11.7% | Buy | 6.8x | 28 |
 DXDynex Capital, Inc. | $1.8B | $11.73 | $14.50 | +23.6% | Hold | 7.9x | 14 |
 EARNEllington Credit Company | $158M | $4.21 | $5.00 | +18.8% | Hold | 4.9x | 7 |
 TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | $12.18 | $13.00 | +6.7% | Hold | 10.2x | 22 |
 MFAMFA Financial, Inc. | $849M | $8.32 | $10.75 | +29.2% | Hold | 7.9x | 23 |
 IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $665M | $6.46 | $7.75 | +20.0% | Hold | 3.3x | 20 |
 CIMChimera Investment Corporation | $899M | $10.75 | $10.75 | +0.0% | Hold | 5.6x | 16 |
 PMTPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $761M | $8.73 | $10.50 | +20.3% | Hold | 8.6x | 26 |
 EFCEllington Financial Inc. | $1.6B | $12.41 | $13.50 | +8.8% | Buy | 6.0x | 13 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARR stock.
The consensus price target for ARR is $15, close to the current price of $14.6 (2.7% implied move). Based on 25 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
ARR has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 25 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 15 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $15 implies 2.7% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 4.9908x, ARR trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $15 implies 2.7% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $18 for ARR, while the most conservative target is $13. The consensus of $15 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $77 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ARR is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 25 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 15 recommend Hold, and 5 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ARR stock forecast based on 25 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $15, with estimates ranging from $13 (bear case) to $18 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $58, with bear/bull scenarios of $37/$77.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARR's fair value at $58 (base case), with a bear case of $37 and bull case of $77. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 48/100.
ARR trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 4.4x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
ARR appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $15 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ARR analyst price targets range from $13 to $18, a 33% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $15 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $37-$77 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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