EARN trades 18.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $5.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes EARN achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 4.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $5.00, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $4.21, this represents a potential upside of +18.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $158M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $5.00 to a high of $5.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $5.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, EARN trades at a trailing P/E of -11.1x and forward P/E of 4.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +686.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $1.53, with bear and bull scenarios of $0.96 and $2.02 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EFCEllington Financial Inc. | $1.6B | $12.41 | $13.50 | +8.8% | Buy | 6.0x | 13 |
 AGNCAGNC Investment Corp. | $11.4B | $9.91 | $11.67 | +17.8% | Hold | 6.3x | 35 |
 NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. | $15.8B | $21.04 | $23.50 | +11.7% | Buy | 6.8x | 28 |
 MFAMFA Financial, Inc. | $849M | $8.32 | $10.75 | +29.2% | Hold | 7.9x | 23 |
 MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc | $197M | $6.19 | $9.25 | +49.4% | Buy | 5.8x | 18 |
 TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | $12.18 | $13.00 | +6.7% | Hold | 10.2x | 22 |
 IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $665M | $6.46 | $7.75 | +20.0% | Hold | 3.3x | 20 |
 DXDynex Capital, Inc. | $1.8B | $11.73 | $14.50 | +23.6% | Hold | 7.9x | 14 |
 ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc. | $1.0B | $5.94 | $7.50 | +26.3% | Hold | 5.3x | 5 |
 CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation | $101M | $2.76 | $3.10 | +12.3% | Hold | 5.0x | 11 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying EARN stock.
Ellington Credit Company (EARN) has a consensus 12-month price target of $5, implying 18.8% upside from $4.21. The 7 analysts covering EARN see moderate appreciation potential.
EARN has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $5 implies 18.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 4.9384x, EARN trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $5 implies 18.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $5 for EARN, while the most conservative target is $5. The consensus of $5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $2 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
EARN is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month EARN stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $5, with estimates ranging from $5 (bear case) to $5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $2, with bear/bull scenarios of $1/$2.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates EARN's fair value at $2 (base case), with a bear case of $1 and bull case of $2. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
EARN trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on EARN, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $5 price target (18.8% upside). 1 of 7 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
EARN analyst price targets range from $5 to $5, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $1-$2 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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