MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$9.55
Price Target
$10.25
Target Range
$10.25 — $10.25
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E7.0x
Trailing P/E5.7x
Forward PEG—
Implied Growth+12.7%
Median Target$10.25
Analyst Spread0.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$10
+7.3%
Consensus
$10
+7.3%
Bull Case
$10
+7.3%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 26/100
Bear$5
Base$22
Bull$203
MFA Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $10.25, based on estimates from 22 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $9.55, this represents a potential upside of +7.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $975M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $10.25 to a high of $10.25, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $10.25 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 8 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,14 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, MFA trades at a trailing P/E of 5.7x and forward P/E of 7.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +12.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $21.81, with bear and bull scenarios of $5.48 and $203.41 respectively. Model confidence stands at 26/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Real Estate stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+21.0%
Avg Forward P/E7.1x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AGNCAGNC Investment Corp. | $9.6B | $10.72 | $11.13 | +3.8% | Hold | 6.9x | 35 |
 NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. | $16.1B | $22.38 | $24.50 | +9.5% | Buy | 7.5x | 28 |
 TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp. | $1.3B | $12.26 | $14.00 | +14.2% | Hold | 11.9x | 22 |
 MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc | $251M | $7.92 | $9.63 | +21.6% | Buy | 7.3x | 18 |
 RWTRedwood Trust, Inc. | $696M | $5.57 | $6.50 | +16.7% | Hold | 7.2x | 23 |
 EARNEllington Credit Company | $180M | $4.78 | $6.00 | +25.5% | Hold | 4.5x | 7 |
 PMTPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $1.1B | $12.13 | $15.00 | +23.7% | Buy | 7.8x | 26 |
 IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $577M | $8.03 | $9.00 | +12.1% | Hold | 3.7x | 20 |
 EFCEllington Financial Inc. | $1.3B | $13.10 | $13.50 | +3.1% | Buy | 7.2x | 13 |
 GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. | $66M | $1.39 | $2.50 | +79.9% | Hold | — | 12 |
Upside Potential Comparison
GPMTEARNPMTMITTRWTTWOIVRNLYSee MFA's True Return
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Start ComparisonMFA — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MFA stock.
What is the MFA stock price target for 2026?
The consensus price target for MFA is $10.25, close to the current price of $9.55 (7.3% implied move). Based on 22 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
Is MFA a buy, sell, or hold?
MFA has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 22 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 14 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $10.25 implies 7.3% upside from current levels.
Is MFA stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 6.9637x, MFA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $10.25 implies 7.3% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can MFA stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $10.25 for MFA, while the most conservative target is $10.25. The consensus of $10.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $203 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover MFA stock?
MFA is well covered by analysts, with 22 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 8 have Buy ratings, 14 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the MFA stock forecast?
The 12-month MFA stock forecast based on 22 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $10.25, with estimates ranging from $10.25 (bear case) to $10.25 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $22, with bear/bull scenarios of $5/$203.
What is MFA's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MFA's fair value at $22 (base case), with a bear case of $5 and bull case of $203. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 26/100.
What is MFA's forward P/E ratio?
MFA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 5.7x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy MFA stock?
MFA appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $10.25 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do MFA price targets vary so much?
MFA analyst price targets range from $10.25 to $10.25, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $10.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $5-$203 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.