Upside case
Bull case
$506+117.3%
ARW would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
6 bullish · 2 bearish · 17 covering ARW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
9
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$215
-7.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$242 – $506
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.9B
ARW price targets
Three scenarios for where ARW stock could go
Current
~$233
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $233
Bear
$242
Base
$384
Bull
$506
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$384+65.0%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$242+3.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ARW down roughly 4% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
ARW · NYSETechnologyTechnology DistributorsDecember year-end
Arrow Electronics is a global distributor of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions that connects manufacturers with industrial and commercial customers. It generates revenue primarily through its two segments — Global Components (~75% of sales) distributing semiconductors and electronic parts, and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions (~25%) providing data center and cloud infrastructure. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive global scale, deep supplier relationships, and value-added services like engineering support that create switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$11.9B
Revenue TTM
$33.5B
Net Income TTM
$727M
Net Margin
2.2%
ARW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.43/$2.03
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.41/$2.28
Revenue
$7.7B/$8.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.39/$3.55
Revenue
$8.7B/$8.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.22/$2.92
Revenue
$9.5B/$8.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.43/$2.03 | +19.7% | $7.6B/$7.5B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.41/$2.28 | +5.7% | $7.7B/$8.2B | -5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.39/$3.55 | +23.7% | $8.7B/$8.2B | +6.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.22/$2.92 | +78.8% | $9.5B/$8.4B | +12.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$35.7B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$37.6B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.64
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$18.50
+11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$378M
FCF Margin: 1.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.45
Expected Revenue
$9.5B
ARW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ARW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $30.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Components
69.7%
+7.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other Foreign
41.2%
+14.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Components is the largest disclosed segment at 69.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.6% YoY.
Other Foreign is the largest reported region at 41.2%, up 14.5% YoY.
ARW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $301 — implies +29.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARW
21.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
13% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ARW
21.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
27% discount
vs ARW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.3x
vs
5Y Average
9.4x
+126% premium
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-38%
Technology
22.3x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-13%
Technology
29.0x
-27%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+126%
PEG Ratio
2.65x
S&P 500
1.66x
+60%
Technology
1.51x
+76%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-10%
Technology
16.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
7.2x
+90%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
15.5x
—
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-88%
Technology
2.4x
-84%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+78%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ARW | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ARW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 18.8x-38% | 22.3x-48% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.3x | 24.4x-13% | 29.0x-27% | 9.4x+126% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.65x | 1.66x+60% | 1.51x+76% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 15.2x-10% | 16.6x-18% | 7.2x+90% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | 15.5x |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-88% | 2.4x-84% | 0.2x+78% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ARW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARW Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ARW returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+20.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.05
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$378M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$306M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.4× FCF
~7.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$162M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
51M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageARW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Inventory Destocking
Extended customer inventory destocking could push revenue and EPS below current expectations.
High Risk
Margin Compression
Persistent margin compression may negatively impact profitability and stock performance.
Medium
Regulatory Risks
Exposure to complex legal and regulatory frameworks increases risks of claims, investigations, and litigation.
Medium
International Exposure
Heavy international operations introduce risks from export-control challenges and geopolitical factors.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
Cybersecurity governance challenges could lead to operational disruptions or financial losses.
Lower
Restructuring Efforts
Ongoing restructuring efforts may create short-term disruptions despite long-term benefits.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Evolving technology landscape
Arrow Electronics is positioned to capitalize on the evolving technology landscape by helping clients eliminate complexity and increase efficiency.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses from sources like Stock Analysis Compilation's Substack and VIC highlight Arrow Electronics' investment potential.
Attractive valuation metrics
Arrow Electronics' trailing P/E ratio of 18.15 suggests a reasonable valuation, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Recent price appreciation
ARW shares have shown positive momentum, rising from $117.71 to $121, indicating growing investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$232.70
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.79
+128.6% from the low
52-Week High
$234.46
-0.8% from the high
1 Month
+11.91%
3 Month
+66.07%
YTD
+105.9%
1 Year
+88.4%
3Y CAGR
+19.0%
5Y CAGR
+16.0%
10Y CAGR
+13.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 16.7x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +6.6% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
2.2%
vs 2.2% median
-0% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARW ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. | $11.9B | 11.7x | +6.5% | 2.2% | Hold | -7.6% |
AVT AVT Avnet, Inc. | $7.5B | 17.8x | +1.2% | 0.9% | Hold | -13.3% |
SNX SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation | $23.0B | 16.7x | +8.3% | 1.3% | Buy | -14.6% |
WCC WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $17.8B | 22.7x | +7.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +4.9% |
NSI NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | $3.3B | 9.5x | +1.2% | 2.2% | Buy | -19.3% |
CDW CDW CDW Corporation | $16.4B | 12.0x | +6.6% | 4.7% | Buy | +13.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ARW Dividend and Capital Return
ARW returns 1.4% annually — null% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$162M
Estimated Shares Retired
694.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
51M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1986 | $0.08 | -25.0% |
| 1985 | $0.10 | 0.0% |
| 1984 | $0.10 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsARW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $215, implying -7.6% from the current price of $233. The bear case scenario is $242 and the bull case is $506.
02What is the ARW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARW is $215 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+11.7% from today), and the low-end target is $165 (-29.1%). The base case model target is $384.
03Is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock overvalued in 2026?
ARW trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARW in 2026 are: (1) Inventory Destocking — Extended customer inventory destocking could push revenue and EPS below current expectations. (2) Margin Compression — Persistent margin compression may negatively impact profitability and stock performance. (3) Regulatory Risks — Exposure to complex legal and regulatory frameworks increases risks of claims, investigations, and litigation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARW will report consensus revenue of $35.7B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.64 (+18.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $37.6B in revenue.
06When does Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) report its next earnings?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $4.45 and revenue of $9.5B. Over recent quarters, ARW has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Arrow Electronics, Inc. generate?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) generated $378M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.1%. ARW returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($162M TTM).