Upside case
Bull case
$494+157.3%
ARW would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
6 bullish · 3 bearish · 17 covering ARW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$129
-32.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $494
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.8B
ARW price targets
Three scenarios for where ARW stock could go
Current
~$192
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $192
Bear
$36
Base
$235
Bull
$494
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$235+22.2%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-81.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push ARW down roughly 81% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
ARW · NYSETechnologyTechnology DistributorsDecember year-end
Arrow Electronics is a global distributor of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions that connects manufacturers with industrial and commercial customers. It generates revenue primarily through its two segments — Global Components (~75% of sales) distributing semiconductors and electronic parts, and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions (~25%) providing data center and cloud infrastructure. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive global scale, deep supplier relationships, and value-added services like engineering support that create switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$9.8B
Revenue TTM
$30.9B
Net Income TTM
$571M
Net Margin
1.9%
ARW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.80/$1.47
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.43/$2.03
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.41/$2.28
Revenue
$7.7B/$8.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.39/$3.55
Revenue
$8.7B/$8.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.80/$1.47 | +22.4% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.43/$2.03 | +19.7% | $7.6B/$7.5B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.41/$2.28 | +5.7% | $7.7B/$8.2B | -5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.39/$3.55 | +23.7% | $8.7B/$8.2B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$32.5B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$33.8B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.19
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$13.36
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$37M
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.81
Expected Revenue
$8.3B
ARW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ARW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $27.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Components
71.6%
-21.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other Foreign
39.8%
-12.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Components is the largest disclosed segment at 71.6% of FY 2024 revenue, down 21.4% YoY.
Other Foreign is the largest reported region at 39.8%, down 12.7% YoY.
ARW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $213 — implies +15.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARW
17.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
30% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ARW
17.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
36% discount
vs ARW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.6x
vs
5Y Average
9.4x
+87% premium
Forward PE
13.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-29%
Technology
21.7x
-37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-30%
Technology
27.5x
-36%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+87%
PEG Ratio
2.19x
S&P 500
1.75x
+25%
Technology
1.47x
+49%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-23%
Technology
17.4x
-33%
5Y Avg
7.2x
+63%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
15.5x
—
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-90%
Technology
2.4x
-87%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ARW | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ARW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.6x | 19.1x-29% | 21.7x-37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.6x | 25.2x-30% | 27.5x-36% | 9.4x+87% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.19x | 1.75x+25% | 1.47x+49% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7x | 15.3x-23% | 17.4x-33% | 7.2x+63% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | 15.5x |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-90% | 2.4x-87% | 0.2x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
ARW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARW Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ARW returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$30.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$37M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$306M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
75.8× FCF
~75.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$162M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
52M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageARW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Sales Shortfalls
Arrow Electronics has reported significant shortfalls in expected third-quarter sales and earnings per share (EPS) compared to consensus estimates. This decline is particularly pronounced in the EMEA region and within Components sales due to supplier transition issues.
High Risk
Disclosure and Internal Controls
A class action lawsuit has been filed against Arrow Financial Corporation, alleging defective disclosure controls and internal controls over financial reporting. This raises the risk of delayed financial report filings and potential delisting from NASDAQ.
Medium
Inventory Management
Arrow Electronics is facing challenges with high inventory days relative to historical averages, which could pressure profitability and operational efficiency. Renewed destocking or shifts in the supply chain may further impact margins and working capital.
Medium
Competition Risks
The company operates in a highly competitive landscape, facing risks from digital disintermediation where customers may bypass traditional distributors. This could lead to a loss of market share and revenue.
Medium
Economic Conditions
Broader economic conditions pose risks to demand for electronic components and enterprise IT solutions. Economic downturns could significantly impact Arrow's sales and profitability.
Lower
Interest Rate Risks
Investments in bonds expose Arrow Electronics to risks related to interest rates and credit quality. Fluctuations in interest rates could affect the company's financial performance.
Lower
Off-Balance Sheet Risk
Arrow Financial Corporation is involved in financial instruments with off-balance sheet risks, including commitments to extend credit. While not considered material, these commitments carry elements of credit and interest rate risk.
Lower
End-Market Uncertainty
There are underlying risks related to end-market uncertainty that could affect Arrow's performance. Fluctuations in market demand can lead to unpredictable revenue streams.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Recent Results and Momentum
Arrow Electronics has reached all-time highs, partly driven by AI-related demand. Recent quarters have shown significant year-over-year revenue and profit growth, with Q4 sales rising over 20% year-on-year and financial results surpassing analyst expectations.
Attractive Valuation
The stock trades at a 14-15x earnings multiple, which is considered historically low for the sector. This valuation, along with a trailing P/E ratio of 17.11 and a forward P/E ratio of 13.53, suggests potential for appreciation if the company can improve its margins and sales.
Positive Earnings Outlook and Revisions
Earnings for Arrow Electronics are expected to grow by 14.79% in the coming year. There have been positive upward revisions to earnings estimates, indicating increasing optimism from analysts, and the company has a history of beating EPS estimates.
Technical Strength
ARW has shown a 'golden cross' technical signal, where its 50-day moving average broke above its 200-day moving average, often indicating a potential bullish breakout.
Growth in Key Segments
The Enterprise Computing Solutions (ECS) segment has shown strong sales, contributing significantly to overall performance.
Cyclical Upside Potential
As a distributor of electronic components and IT solutions, Arrow Electronics is well-positioned to benefit from the cyclical upturn in the semiconductor market, leveraging its strong global distribution network.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$191.85
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.79
+88.5% from the low
52-Week High
$194.40
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+30.31%
3 Month
+20.96%
YTD
+69.7%
1 Year
+66.7%
3Y CAGR
+17.6%
5Y CAGR
+10.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.6x
vs 14.0x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +3.5% median
+52% above peer median
Net Margin
1.9%
vs 1.9% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARW ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. | $9.8B | 13.6x | +5.3% | 1.9% | Hold | -32.9% |
AVT AVT Avnet, Inc. | $6.9B | 16.8x | -1.8% | 0.9% | Hold | -5.2% |
SNX SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation | $18.9B | 14.0x | +8.7% | 1.3% | Buy | -24.4% |
WCC WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $17.7B | 23.2x | +6.6% | 2.8% | Buy | -0.8% |
NSI NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | $2.1B | 6.5x | -3.9% | 1.9% | Buy | +30.4% |
CDW CDW CDW Corporation | $14.1B | 10.4x | +3.5% | 4.7% | Buy | +49.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ARW Dividend and Capital Return
ARW returns 1.6% annually — null% through dividends and 1.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$162M
Estimated Shares Retired
842.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
52M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1986 | $0.08 | -25.0% |
| 1985 | $0.10 | 0.0% |
| 1984 | $0.10 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsARW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $129, implying -32.9% from the current price of $192. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $494.
02What is the ARW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARW is $129 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (-21.8% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-47.9%). The base case model target is $235.
03Is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock overvalued in 2026?
ARW trades at 13.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARW in 2026 are: (1) Sales Shortfalls — Arrow Electronics has reported significant shortfalls in expected third-quarter sales and earnings per share (EPS) compared to consensus estimates. (2) Disclosure and Internal Controls — A class action lawsuit has been filed against Arrow Financial Corporation, alleging defective disclosure controls and internal controls over financial reporting. (3) Inventory Management — Arrow Electronics is facing challenges with high inventory days relative to historical averages, which could pressure profitability and operational efficiency. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARW will report consensus revenue of $32.5B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.19 (+10.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.8B in revenue.
06When does Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) report its next earnings?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $2.81 and revenue of $8.3B. Over recent quarters, ARW has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Arrow Electronics, Inc. generate?
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) generated $37M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. ARW returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($162M TTM).