Upside case
Bull case
$202+242.3%
BALL would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 36x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ball Corporation (BALL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 23 covering BALL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$70
+19.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $202
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.7B
BALL price targets
Three scenarios for where BALL stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bear
$76
Base
$114
Bull
$202
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$114+92.6%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$76+29.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BALL down roughly 29% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ball Corporation
BALL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersDecember year-end
Ball Corporation is a leading manufacturer of aluminum beverage cans and aerospace systems. It generates most of its revenue from beverage packaging — primarily aluminum cans for soft drinks, beer, and energy drinks — with a smaller but significant portion from aerospace contracts for satellites, sensors, and defense hardware. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale in aluminum can production — which creates cost efficiencies — and its long-standing technical expertise in aerospace systems for government and commercial customers.
Market Cap
$15.7B
Revenue TTM
$13.6B
Net Income TTM
$937M
Net Margin
6.9%
BALL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.02/$1.02
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.91/$0.90
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.94/$0.85
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.90/$0.87 | +3.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.02/$1.02 | +0.0% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.91/$0.90 | +1.1% | $3.3B/$3.1B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.94/$0.85 | +10.6% | $3.6B/$3.3B | +7.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.2B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$14.8B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.90
+39.8% YoY
FY2
$6.36
+29.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$596M
FCF Margin: 4.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BALL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BALL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Metal Beverage Packaging Americas and Asia
50.6%
+11.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
46.8%
+12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Metal Beverage Packaging Americas and Asia is the largest disclosed segment at 50.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 46.8%, up 12.5% YoY.
BALL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $92 — implies +49.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
49.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BALL
17.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
29% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BALL
17.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
9% discount
vs BALL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.9x
vs
5Y Average
21.0x
15% discount
Forward PE
14.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-22%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-29%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-9%
5Y Avg
21.0x
-15%
PEG Ratio
1.32x
S&P 500
1.75x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+39%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-30%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-6%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-27%
Price/FCF
19.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-7%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+33%
5Y Avg
20.4x
-2%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-62%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+68%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-20%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
S&P 500
1.88%
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-37%
5Y Avg
1.32%
+2%
| Metric | BALL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.9x | 19.1x-22% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.9x | 25.2x-29% | 19.6x | 21.0x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.32x | 1.75x-24% | 0.95x+39% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7x | 15.3x-30% | 11.4x | 14.7x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 19.9x | 21.3x | 15.0x+33% | 20.4x |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-62% | 0.7x+68% | 1.5x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.32% |
BALL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBALL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BALL returns 9.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$596M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.7× FCF
~9.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.8%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
8.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.80
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
266M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBALL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Raw Material Costs
Ball's profitability is significantly influenced by the cost of raw materials, particularly aluminum and natural gas. Fluctuations in these commodity prices can directly affect production costs and margins.
High Risk
High Debt Levels
Ball carries a significant amount of debt, increasing its vulnerability to economic changes and limiting financial flexibility. This high leverage can affect its investment capacity and ability to respond to unforeseen challenges.
High Risk
Geopolitical and Economic Instability
Ball's global operations expose it to risks associated with geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and economic instability, which can lead to volatile financial results.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Geopolitical events, such as the conflict in the Gulf, can disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased freight and shipping costs, and impacting the availability and price of raw materials.
Medium
Competition
Ball operates in a highly competitive packaging industry, facing pressure from alternative products like PET and glass containers. This competition can reduce profitability and market share.
Medium
Demand Fluctuations
While demand for aluminum beverage packaging is generally strong, there are concerns about potential declines in canned beverage demand in the long term, particularly in the alcohol industry, which represents a significant portion of Ball's business.
Lower
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates can adversely affect the company's floating debt and increase debt service requirements.
Lower
Environmental Regulations
Changes in laws and regulations, including environmental laws, can impact operations and financial results. Ball is also subject to regulatory pressure on aluminum production emissions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BALL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Demand
Ball is the world's largest manufacturer of aluminum beverage cans, holding a significant market share in its primary regions. The demand for aluminum packaging is expected to remain robust, driven by trends in recyclable packaging and the growth of ready-to-drink beverages and energy drinks.
Financial Performance and Growth
Ball has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue growth and earnings that have met or exceeded expectations. Analysts project continued earnings per share (EPS) growth, with targets often in the double digits for 2026 and beyond.
Margin Expansion and Operational Execution
Ball anticipates margin expansion through a higher mix of specialty cans and favorable contract renewals. The company's disciplined capital allocation and focus on core packaging are expected to contribute to profitable growth.
Attractive Valuation
Several analyses suggest that Ball's stock is currently undervalued, with implied upside potential ranging from approximately 13% to over 39% based on different valuation methods. Analysts generally hold a positive view, with a consensus rating of 'Buy'.
Resilience and Inflation Hedge
The packaging sector, including Ball, is seen as a structural hedge against inflation due to its ability to pass on rising input costs to customers. This resilience is particularly attractive in the current uncertain economic climate.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BALL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.00
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.83
+31.6% from the low
52-Week High
$68.29
-13.6% from the high
1 Month
-1.22%
3 Month
-11.24%
YTD
+10.6%
1 Year
+14.2%
3Y CAGR
+0.7%
5Y CAGR
-8.2%
10Y CAGR
+5.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BALL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.9x
vs 12.4x median
+20% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +4.4% median
-8% below peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 9.4% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL BALL Ball Corporation | $15.7B | 14.9x | +4.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +19.1% |
CCK CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $11.3B | 12.5x | +4.3% | 6.0% | Buy | +19.2% |
SEE SEE Sealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | 12.4x | -0.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +3.2% |
SLG SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $4.3B | 10.7x | +6.0% | 4.3% | Buy | +24.7% |
ATR ATR AptarGroup, Inc. | $7.9B | 22.0x | +4.4% | 10.0% | Buy | +38.4% |
SON SON Sonoco Products Company | $5.2B | 8.9x | +19.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +12.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BALL Dividend and Capital Return
BALL returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (8.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.40% dividend — combining for 10.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.7%
Dividend Yield
1.40%
Payout Ratio
24.1%
How BALL Splits Its Return
Div 1.40%
Buyback 8.7%
Dividend 1.40%Buybacks 8.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.80
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
266M
At 8.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | +14.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsBALL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ball Corporation (BALL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ball Corporation (BALL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $70, implying +19.1% from the current price of $59. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $202.
02What is the BALL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BALL is $70 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+27.1% from today), and the low-end target is $66 (+11.9%). The base case model target is $114.
03Is Ball Corporation (BALL) stock overvalued in 2026?
BALL trades at 14.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ball Corporation (BALL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BALL in 2026 are: (1) Raw Material Costs — Ball's profitability is significantly influenced by the cost of raw materials, particularly aluminum and natural gas. (2) High Debt Levels — Ball carries a significant amount of debt, increasing its vulnerability to economic changes and limiting financial flexibility. (3) Geopolitical and Economic Instability — Ball's global operations expose it to risks associated with geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and economic instability, which can lead to volatile financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ball Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BALL will report consensus revenue of $14.2B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.90 (+39.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.8B in revenue.
06When does Ball Corporation (BALL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BALL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ball Corporation generate?
Ball Corporation (BALL) generated $596M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.4%. BALL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).