Upside case
Bull case
$86-14.7%
The bull case prices CCK at 11x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering CCK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$121
+19.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$38 – $86
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.3B
CCK price targets
Three scenarios for where CCK stock could go
Current
~$101
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $101
Bear
$38
Base
$133
Bull
$86
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$133+31.8%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$38-62.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push CCK down roughly 62% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Crown Holdings, Inc.
CCK · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersDecember year-end
Crown Holdings is a global packaging manufacturer that produces metal cans, caps, and industrial packaging solutions for food, beverage, and industrial customers. It generates revenue primarily from beverage can sales—which account for roughly 70% of sales—alongside food cans, closures, and industrial packaging equipment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its global scale, long-term customer relationships with major beverage brands, and technical expertise in lightweighting and sustainable packaging technologies.
Market Cap
$11.3B
Revenue TTM
$12.4B
Net Income TTM
$737M
Net Margin
6.0%
CCK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.15/$1.88
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.24/$1.98
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.74/$1.69
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.86/$1.75
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.15/$1.88 | +14.4% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.24/$1.98 | +13.1% | $3.2B/$3.0B | +7.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.74/$1.69 | +3.0% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.86/$1.75 | +6.3% | $3.3B/$3.0B | +7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.9B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$13.2B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.62
+18.1% YoY
FY2
$8.41
+10.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CCK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CCK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Metal Beverage Cans And Ends
69.0%
+8.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
38.9%
+8.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Metal Beverage Cans And Ends is the largest disclosed segment at 69.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 38.9%, up 8.9% YoY.
CCK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $146 — implies +45.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
45.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CCK
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
37% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CCK
15.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
19% discount
vs CCK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
19.4x
18% discount
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-19%
5Y Avg
19.4x
-18%
PEG Ratio
1.05x
S&P 500
1.75x
-40%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-48%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-30%
5Y Avg
9.3x
-15%
Price/FCF
10.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-31%
5Y Avg
50.5x
-80%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-71%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+29%
5Y Avg
1.0x
-4%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
S&P 500
1.88%
-45%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-52%
5Y Avg
1.01%
+2%
| Metric | CCK | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CCK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 19.1x-35% | 15.2x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.2x-37% | 19.6x-19% | 19.4x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.05x | 1.75x-40% | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0x | 15.3x-48% | 11.4x-30% | 9.3x-15% |
| Price/FCF | 10.3x | 21.3x-52% | 15.0x-31% | 50.5x-80% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-71% | 0.7x+29% | 1.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.03% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.01% |
CCK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCCK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CCK generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — 14.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$879M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.5%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
4.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$505M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
112M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCCK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Load
Crown Holdings carries a substantial debt load of nearly $6.4 billion, which poses a significant financial risk. This high level of debt could limit the company's financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns.
High Risk
Global Economic Dependence
The company's reliance on international markets makes it vulnerable to global economic downturns. A slowdown in key markets could severely impact revenue and profitability.
Medium
Labor and Energy Costs
Crown Holdings faces significant pressures from labor and energy costs, which could adversely affect profitability. Rising costs in these areas may not be fully passed on to customers, squeezing margins.
Medium
Competition
Crown Holdings operates in a highly competitive environment with larger market leaders. This intense competition may limit the company's growth potential and market share.
Medium
Earnings Volatility
The company has a history of volatile earnings and poor shareholder returns, indicating that operational improvements have not consistently translated into value creation for shareholders. This volatility can deter potential investors.
Lower
Input Cost Fluctuations
There is potential for volatility in aluminum, energy, and transportation markets, which could impact input costs. Fluctuations in these costs may affect overall profitability.
Lower
Insider Selling
Recent periods have seen insiders selling more of their company's stock than they have bought. This trend could raise concerns among investors regarding the company's future prospects.
Lower
Geographic Risks
Crown Holdings faces geographic risks that could impact its operations and profitability. Variability in regional economic conditions may pose challenges to consistent performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CCK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Diversified Portfolio
Crown Holdings is a leading producer of metal packaging, offering a diverse range of products including beverage cans, food cans, closures, and aerosol cans. Its strong customer base and focus on categories like non-alcoholic and sparkling beverages position it well for future growth.
Strong Financial Performance
Analysts project revenue and operating income to grow annually over the next few years, with net income expected to see substantial growth. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to reach $9.25+ by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
The stock is considered undervalued, with a P/E ratio that is attractive compared to the industry average. The low PEG ratio suggests the stock is trading at a low price relative to its near-term earnings growth potential.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Discipline
Crown Holdings has a substantial share repurchase program authorized, aiming to reduce its share float. Additionally, the company pays a meaningful dividend with a sustainable payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating on the stock, indicating strong confidence in its future performance. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggests significant upside potential from the current stock price.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CCK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$101.09
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$89.21
+13.3% from the low
52-Week High
$116.62
-13.3% from the high
1 Month
-2.06%
3 Month
-10.44%
YTD
-3.0%
1 Year
+3.8%
3Y CAGR
+6.2%
5Y CAGR
-2.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CCK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 16.0x median
-22% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +6.6% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
6.0%
vs 8.6% median
-31% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCK CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $11.3B | 12.5x | +4.3% | 6.0% | Buy | +19.2% |
AMB AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | $2.4B | 16.0x | +8.6% | 0.2% | Hold | +13.9% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $22.6B | 38.5x | +6.6% | 9.3% | Buy | +5.0% |
SEE SEE Sealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | 12.4x | -0.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +3.2% |
SLG SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $4.3B | 10.7x | +6.0% | 4.3% | Buy | +24.7% |
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $20.2B | 22.0x | +6.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +8.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CCK Dividend and Capital Return
CCK returns capital mainly through $505M/year in buybacks (4.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.03% dividend — combining for 5.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.5%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
Payout Ratio
16.3%
How CCK Splits Its Return
Div 1.03%
Buyback 4.5%
Dividend 1.03%Buybacks 4.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.7%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$505M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
112M
At 4.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.04 | +4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | +4.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| 2023 | $0.96 | +9.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | +10.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCCK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $121, implying +19.2% from the current price of $101. The bear case scenario is $38 and the bull case is $86.
02What is the CCK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CCK is $121 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $126 (+24.6% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (+13.8%). The base case model target is $133.
03Is Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) stock overvalued in 2026?
CCK trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CCK in 2026 are: (1) Debt Load — Crown Holdings carries a substantial debt load of nearly $6. (2) Global Economic Dependence — The company's reliance on international markets makes it vulnerable to global economic downturns. (3) Labor and Energy Costs — Crown Holdings faces significant pressures from labor and energy costs, which could adversely affect profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Crown Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CCK will report consensus revenue of $12.9B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.62 (+18.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.2B in revenue.
06When does Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CCK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Crown Holdings, Inc. generate?
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. CCK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($505M TTM).